Mean-Forearm — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

6,737

lifetime

Volume

$27.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 06-10 11:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 0% $-8

Politics

1% — —

Other

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 272 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran strike on israel by february 28	2	$109	103	103	+0	open	—	02-28 08:51
btc updown 5m 1776710700	4	$82	74	70	+4	open	—	04-20 18:50
total internet blackout in iran by february 28 2026	2	$70	71	71	+0	open	—	02-28 08:46
btc updown 5m 1774674900	2	$59	58	58	+0	open	—	03-28 05:20
btc updown 15m 1772352000	2	$56	54	54	+0	open	—	03-01 08:16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$53	68	68	+0	open	—	03-04 06:02
bitcoin up or down march 1 10am et	3	$52	45	45	+0	open	—	03-01 16:09
btc updown 5m 1773620100	2	$52	50	50	+0	open	—	03-16 00:20
btc updown 15m 1775730600	4	$51	48	45	+3	open	—	04-09 10:44
bitcoin up or down february 18 7pm et	4	$50	39	39	+0	open	—	02-19 01:13
btc updown 15m 1774650600	2	$50	47	47	+0	open	—	03-27 22:45
btc updown 15m 1774944000	5	$48	57	53	+3	open	—	03-31 08:15
btc updown 5m 1774622700	3	$47	39	39	+0	open	—	03-27 14:50
btc updown 15m 1772794800	3	$45	40	39	+0	open	—	03-06 11:13
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$44	111	111	+0	open	—	04-22 07:11
eth updown 5m 1773620100	3	$42	33	33	+0	open	—	03-16 00:21
btc updown 15m 1776849300	3	$42	40	38	+2	open	—	04-22 09:28
sol updown 15m 1776335400	3	$41	38	36	+2	open	—	04-16 10:45
eth updown 5m 1775064600	2	$41	41	39	+3	open	—	04-01 17:34
btc updown 5m 1776876300	3	$40	46	43	+3	open	—	04-22 16:49
btc updown 15m 1775736900	3	$40	36	34	+2	open	—	04-09 12:28
btc updown 5m 1772466000	3	$40	32	32	+0	open	—	03-02 15:46
solana up or down february 25 4am et	3	$39	33	33	+0	open	—	02-25 09:57
sol updown 5m 1773674700	3	$39	31	30	+0	open	—	03-16 15:30
xrp up or down march 1 11am et	3	$39	32	32	+0	open	—	03-01 17:07
btc updown 15m 1773489600	2	$39	36	36	+0	open	—	03-14 12:15
sol updown 5m 1776693900	2	$38	38	35	+2	open	—	04-20 14:11
bitcoin up or down february 20 2am et	5	$37	38	38	+0	open	—	02-20 08:06
btc updown 5m 1774954800	3	$36	34	32	+2	open	—	03-31 11:04
sol updown 15m 1775551500	3	$36	32	30	+2	open	—	04-07 09:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 11:19:51	sol updown 15m 1781090100	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xc37c89…
06-10 11:18:34	sol updown 5m 1781090100	Up	BUY	12	13¢	$1	0xbcbbc8…
06-10 11:08:00	btc updown 15m 1781089200	Up	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0xe56beb…
06-10 11:07:45	xrp updown 5m 1781089500	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x9e6134…
06-10 10:31:54	sol updown 15m 1781087400	Down	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x3b038b…
06-10 10:31:01	btc updown 5m 1781087400	Down	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x8a67b9…
06-10 10:30:40	sol updown 5m 1781087400	Down	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0x6c98b8…
06-10 10:07:52	xrp updown 5m 1781085900	Up	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xc7ed90…
06-10 10:01:55	sol updown 5m 1781085600	Up	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x517f3c…
05-10 11:23:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x326309…
05-10 11:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0xab612e…
05-03 11:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	29	6¢	$2	0xfbdcf3…
05-03 11:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x36e87c…
05-03 11:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x6320db…
05-03 10:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0xa92785…
05-03 10:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x8323b4…
05-03 10:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0xba8505…
05-03 10:23:52	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x9aa25d…
05-03 10:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x4a631b…
05-03 10:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x7b97ee…
05-03 10:05:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0xeb68ec…
05-03 10:04:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x70cf18…
05-03 10:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x07fb0e…
05-03 09:52:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x2f139f…
05-03 09:51:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0x6bb961…
05-03 09:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1f8adf…
05-03 09:27:24	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xbe12df…
05-03 09:27:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x69df76…
05-03 09:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0xe5c257…
05-03 09:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x96717d…
05-03 09:13:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	23¢	$3	0xd61e89…
05-03 08:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xbc1b73…
05-03 08:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	36	8¢	$3	0xe93649…
05-03 08:40:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x8aaa89…
05-03 08:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0x6a6469…
05-03 08:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x69d373…
05-03 08:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xd5a660…
05-03 08:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xbc33c5…
05-03 08:26:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x6c9be9…
05-03 08:25:56	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	15¢	$3	0xb72912…
05-03 08:22:50	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	23	16¢	$4	0xdfe764…
05-03 08:17:58	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xe3c3af…
05-03 08:17:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x664961…
05-03 08:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x3b6b23…
05-03 08:05:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0xaa84e6…
05-03 08:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x1bfc07…
05-03 08:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x86a3dc…
05-03 07:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	45	8¢	$4	0x3e3eba…
05-03 07:16:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xf571b4…
05-03 06:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x20054f…
05-03 06:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	183	1¢	$2	0xcb687a…
05-03 06:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x1bee53…
05-03 06:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x63bca2…
05-03 06:35:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xbe9dfa…
05-03 06:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x0a4d21…
05-03 06:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x6f42e6…
05-03 06:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x0ac425…
05-03 06:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xc3f6c8…
05-03 06:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xad9518…
05-03 06:17:58	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xb3b47f…
05-03 06:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x8ab933…
05-03 06:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xda9d0c…
05-01 10:55:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0x60c6f6…
05-01 10:53:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$4	0x6af1e0…
04-23 22:01:38	eth updown 15m 1776981600	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x9842a2…
04-23 22:01:20	btc updown 15m 1776981600	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x67b0b7…
04-23 21:57:14	btc updown 5m 1776981300	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xcf6262…
04-23 21:56:56	eth updown 5m 1776981300	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x927cc6…
04-23 21:56:16	sol updown 5m 1776981300	Up	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x227193…
04-23 21:55:30	btc updown 15m 1776980700	Up	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0x647ad6…
04-23 21:55:08	sol updown 5m 1776981000	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x815224…
04-23 21:53:50	sol updown 5m 1776981000	Up	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0xd8bb61…
04-23 21:53:10	eth updown 15m 1776980700	Up	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xd71d29…
04-23 21:52:52	btc updown 15m 1776980700	Up	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xe4f43b…
04-23 21:52:30	btc updown 5m 1776981000	Up	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xd8b169…
04-23 21:47:04	btc updown 5m 1776980700	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x878599…
04-23 21:46:36	eth updown 5m 1776980700	Up	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x9a3dfa…
04-23 21:46:22	btc updown 5m 1776980700	Up	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x80a1ae…
04-23 21:46:22	btc updown 5m 1776980700	Up	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x7b2961…
04-23 21:38:22	btc updown 5m 1776980100	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x83e9b6…
04-23 21:38:10	btc updown 5m 1776980100	Down	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0xc840c8…
04-23 15:52:04	sol updown 5m 1776959400	Up	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0xde76b8…
04-23 15:43:10	eth updown 5m 1776958800	Up	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x244c61…
04-23 15:42:48	xrp updown 5m 1776958800	Up	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xbe46b9…
04-23 15:33:50	sol updown 15m 1776958200	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x91083d…
04-23 15:33:30	btc updown 5m 1776958200	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xa9e828…
04-23 15:28:54	xrp updown 5m 1776957900	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x7f1083…
04-23 14:44:16	sol updown 5m 1776955200	Down	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x128a8a…
04-23 14:44:00	eth updown 5m 1776955200	Down	BUY	14	18¢	$2	0x155c12…
04-23 13:11:42	sol updown 15m 1776949200	Up	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xd2359f…
04-23 13:10:36	xrp updown 15m 1776949200	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xec3899…
04-23 13:10:14	btc updown 15m 1776949200	Up	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x505940…
04-23 13:03:38	eth updown 15m 1776949200	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x73d269…
04-23 13:02:48	sol updown 5m 1776949200	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xbf63c2…
04-23 13:02:16	btc updown 5m 1776949200	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xced7df…
04-23 12:40:48	sol updown 15m 1776947400	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x39bb8e…
04-23 12:40:26	sol updown 15m 1776947400	Up	BUY	15	24¢	$3	0x30144f…
04-23 10:35:48	sol updown 15m 1776940200	Down	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xdf7cd1…
04-23 10:32:42	eth updown 5m 1776940200	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x2ac771…
04-23 10:32:38	eth updown 5m 1776940200	Down	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xb8a1dc…