Political-Conclusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.47K

Unrealized P&L

-$5.19K

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,646

lifetime

Volume

$305.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

$1.16K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-01 12:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

58% 69% +$4,858

Other

38% 58% -$850

Crypto

2% 67% +$491

Tech

1% 67% +$391

Sports

0% 0% -$1,421

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+10,095	$6,347	12¢	$1.2K	-$5,186	10-01 12:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	179	$52.9K	81,627	71,266	+10,361	No	-$1,048	05-23 19:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	59	$33.2K	34,000	23,905	+10,095	open	—	10-01 12:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	235	$30.4K	64,402	64,573	-170	No	+$1,154	06-15 08:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	39	$15.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	+$840	06-13 16:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	38	$10.0K	16,255	16,255	+0	No	+$524	05-25 11:12
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	85	$9.7K	49,074	49,074	+0	No	-$4,358	09-25 15:56
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	7	$8.3K	4,500	4,500	+0	Yes	+$655	06-20 23:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	20	$7.0K	7,237	7,237	+0	No	+$1,448	06-15 03:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	67	$6.6K	33,000	35,000	-2,000	No	-$10	06-11 17:47
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$6.5K	3,903	3,903	+0	No	+$19	04-22 09:30
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	4	$6.2K	5,000	2,000	+3,000	Yes	+$570	06-13 17:05
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	19	$5.3K	3,858	2,858	+1,000	No	-$349	04-28 14:05
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	14	$4.9K	4,332	4,332	+0	No	+$335	05-28 15:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	11	$4.7K	3,110	3,110	+0	No	+$277	05-10 20:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	9	$4.5K	3,588	2,000	+1,588	No	+$1,007	04-21 21:39
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	8	$4.4K	2,500	3,179	-679	No	+$451	05-31 19:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	10	$4.4K	5,609	4,609	+1,000	Yes	+$393	06-15 08:56
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	22	$4.2K	5,928	5,928	+0	No	-$1,263	04-21 22:19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	18	$4.1K	5,800	5,800	+0	No	+$4	05-28 14:41
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	6	$4.1K	3,000	1,463	+1,536	Yes	+$285	06-15 14:30
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	8	$4.0K	4,403	2,500	+1,903	Yes	+$1,168	04-07 14:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	261	$4.0K	2,408	2,408	+0	No	+$237	04-25 14:36
us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	3	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$34	06-15 14:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	5	$3.9K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$0	05-24 08:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	4	$3.7K	2,069	2,069	+0	Yes	+$0	05-29 15:24
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	10	$3.7K	2,513	2,513	+0	Yes	+$391	06-14 21:36
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	29	$3.6K	2,043	2,043	+0	No	+$353	04-11 01:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$3.4K	1,850	1,850	+0	No	+$199	04-28 12:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	27	$3.2K	4,100	4,100	+0	Yes	-$150	04-15 08:25
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	42	$3.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$10	06-15 15:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 12:06:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	709	20¢	$142	0x6d7c4c…
10-01 12:02:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x8c52d7…
10-01 11:57:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,281	20¢	$656	0xa5b561…
09-26 12:38:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	447	20¢	$89	0x59b296…
09-26 09:08:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,200	8¢	$176	0xc96604…
09-26 00:39:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,200	8¢	$176	0x5ac774…
09-25 16:37:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x13e1d9…
09-25 16:35:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xc02298…
09-25 16:31:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x112342…
09-25 16:28:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	216	31¢	$67	0x90c139…
09-25 16:27:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0xfc8043…
09-25 16:27:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	209	31¢	$65	0xec3e35…
09-25 16:27:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0xb1b204…
09-25 16:27:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	31¢	$0	0x8d5dc8…
09-25 15:56:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	17,378	0¢	$70	0x383d7b…
09-25 15:23:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x2f28a3…
09-25 14:57:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	430	0¢	$2	0xb93dd1…
09-25 13:16:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	12,500	0¢	$50	0xc837fb…
09-25 13:06:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x0427fe…
09-25 11:44:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xe49ab8…
09-25 11:42:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x1914de…
09-25 10:49:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	105	0¢	$0	0x9736bf…
09-25 10:00:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xa5f588…
09-25 09:18:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x3c3b97…
09-25 08:11:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	350	0¢	$1	0xf31587…
09-25 07:32:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0xffd2b8…
09-25 07:14:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x3d4799…
09-24 17:45:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5,573	1¢	$33	0x97f18a…
09-24 15:29:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	60	1¢	$0	0x5f113d…
09-24 14:46:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xa594a3…
09-24 14:46:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xe054ff…
09-24 14:46:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x99a00d…
09-24 14:46:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x35ebfa…
09-24 14:46:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	3,312	1¢	$20	0xe74851…
09-22 14:13:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0xae20cf…
09-03 12:24:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	19	3¢	$0	0xd44a7e…
09-03 11:54:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x5f801a…
09-03 11:44:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xa8a900…
09-03 11:40:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x00ad87…
09-03 11:35:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x20cfcc…
09-03 11:08:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x96976d…
09-03 10:53:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x92ad1e…
09-03 10:48:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x1f03a2…
09-03 10:45:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x55c645…
09-03 10:42:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x33628d…
09-03 10:18:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0xe8c9e9…
09-03 10:18:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	12,161	3¢	$316	0xaac4ac…
09-03 10:07:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x5de114…
09-03 10:07:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x512dc2…
09-03 09:52:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,320	3¢	$34	0x8a8141…
09-03 09:51:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,412	3¢	$37	0x556661…
08-26 16:07:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	37¢	$1,850	0xdbafe0…
08-19 18:08:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	13,000	6¢	$780	0x6a47b1…
08-11 14:23:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	141	51¢	$72	0xe700c7…
08-11 14:19:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	359	51¢	$183	0xff9a8e…
08-11 14:19:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0xe02837…
08-11 14:13:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x838b8a…
08-11 14:12:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	51¢	$24	0x2c9e79…
08-11 14:07:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	931	51¢	$475	0x4d6c7e…
08-11 13:46:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	1,564	19¢	$297	0x8d2930…
08-11 13:39:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	3,436	19¢	$653	0x198cd7…
08-07 22:30:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	82	61¢	$50	0xd4d80c…
08-07 22:26:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	175	61¢	$107	0x41d771…
08-07 20:29:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x86e0ff…
08-07 19:55:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,138	61¢	$694	0xc02adc…
08-07 15:59:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	1,296	27¢	$350	0x025fa7…
08-07 15:58:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	71	27¢	$19	0xcc0097…
08-07 15:43:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	0	27¢	$0	0x2f0e32…
08-07 15:10:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x3216e6…
08-07 14:57:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x1a1bb2…
08-07 14:55:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x9b797b…
08-07 14:13:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	533	27¢	$144	0xf3b487…
08-07 14:05:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0xa0bed3…
08-07 13:53:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	346	27¢	$93	0x42767f…
08-07 13:31:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xf6017c…
08-07 13:31:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xb76587…
08-07 13:19:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x5d4ca5…
08-07 12:32:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	559	27¢	$151	0x10ba9f…
08-07 08:31:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	59¢	$2,950	0xcff56c…
08-06 18:22:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	62¢	$3,100	0x91daf8…
08-06 16:36:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	63¢	$945	0x7e737d…
08-06 15:56:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2,615	31¢	$811	0x1f37cf…
08-06 15:42:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	166	31¢	$51	0xc8d7e9…
08-06 15:02:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0x1144f3…
08-06 14:55:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	145	31¢	$45	0x59231b…
08-06 14:30:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0xe68ef4…
08-06 13:59:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x4c6d63…
08-06 13:54:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0xcd348b…
08-06 13:29:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,500	62¢	$2,170	0xd308ee…
08-06 13:17:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0x48be38…
08-06 12:29:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,500	62¢	$2,170	0x6aa0bf…
08-06 12:15:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,800	63¢	$1,764	0x1eed21…
08-06 12:10:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	36	31¢	$11	0x482014…
08-06 12:10:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x01feff…
08-06 12:01:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	260	63¢	$164	0xb6a874…
08-05 15:17:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	2,042	31¢	$633	0x4e6b40…
08-05 15:09:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	79	63¢	$50	0xd06959…
08-05 15:06:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	400	63¢	$252	0x152b43…
08-05 14:46:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xc29bb6…
08-05 14:45:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$0	0xfbed02…