Courteous-Crawdad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.03K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

$114

1 position

First seen

2026-01-29

last 07-04 21:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

72% 100% +$2,024

Other

21% 100% +$9

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-275	$-113	42¢	$-114	$-1	06-12 11:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	8	$882	1,315	576	+740	open	—	05-26 11:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$576	838	172	+667	open	—	06-13 17:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$373	277	551	-275	open	—	06-12 11:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$290	238	238	+0	open	—	05-24 11:53
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	4	$267	1,046	138	+909	open	—	05-14 10:50
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	1	$241	314	0	+314	open	—	06-12 11:04
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	2	$200	526	526	+0	open	—	07-04 10:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$186	1,447	0	+1,447	Yes	+$1,261	04-10 12:02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	4	$149	1,048	493	+555	open	—	05-21 17:50
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 2pt5	1	$100	141	0	+141	open	—	07-04 21:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$100	109	0	+109	Yes	+$9	05-12 05:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$75	837	0	+837	Yes	+$762	04-10 12:02
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	3	$72	127	127	+0	open	—	05-27 15:56
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$69	2,497	0	+2,497	open	—	01-29 12:15
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$63	111	111	+0	open	—	05-17 19:17
makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	1	$50	96	0	+96	open	—	06-16 10:45
jd vance out as vp by december 31	1	$50	556	0	+556	open	—	06-22 20:37
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik	1	$30	33	0	+33	open	—	05-24 14:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	1	$27	386	0	+386	open	—	05-28 14:20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	1	$25	58	0	+58	open	—	05-24 06:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	1	$20	892	0	+892	open	—	05-14 14:51
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	1	$15	22	0	+22	open	—	05-18 20:13
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$10	38	0	+38	open	—	05-14 14:27
Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5)	2	$8	903	0	+903	open	—	05-18 19:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 21:17:32	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 2pt5	Paraguay	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0xdebaea…
07-04 10:55:19	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	526	19¢	$100	0x7eb2c5…
06-24 13:44:01	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0xa8f956…
06-22 20:37:38	jd vance out as vp by december 31	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0x957267…
06-16 10:45:07	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x0438eb…
06-13 17:06:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	383	78¢	$300	0x16c521…
06-12 11:04:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	314	77¢	$241	0xc845dc…
06-12 11:04:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	551	44¢	$243	0x2a4330…
06-11 18:18:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	456	44¢	$200	0x014662…
06-01 19:13:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	47¢	$130	0x468121…
06-01 13:20:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	172	44¢	$76	0x6219f1…
05-28 14:20:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	386	7¢	$27	0x467fd8…
05-27 15:56:09	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	SELL	127	17¢	$22	0x03dae4…
05-26 11:21:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	298	34¢	$100	0xd907ae…
05-26 09:22:10	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0x17b806…
05-26 06:54:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	31¢	$60	0x3d4868…
05-24 14:41:27	Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x9caf18…
05-24 11:58:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x1ef6a8…
05-24 11:53:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	238	59¢	$140	0x771cd3…
05-24 06:56:57	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0xa9d9c7…
05-24 06:56:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xecdf50…
05-24 06:54:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	238	63¢	$150	0xd43b43…
05-24 06:52:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	64¢	$110	0xd3d6ae…
05-23 22:02:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	576	67¢	$387	0x1fbc7b…
05-21 17:50:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	266	38¢	$100	0x0fb6e8…
05-21 17:50:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	555	13¢	$70	0xabacbf…
05-20 15:35:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xde52ae…
05-18 20:13:32	Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)	Burnley FC	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x62a973…
05-18 19:42:02	Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5)	Burnley FC	BUY	561	1¢	$5	0x2d8f62…
05-18 19:41:13	Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5)	Burnley FC	BUY	343	1¢	$3	0x7b474e…
05-18 11:30:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	493	6¢	$30	0x0cbe2e…
05-17 19:17:42	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	29¢	$33	0x5f6a52…
05-14 14:51:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	892	2¢	$20	0x7e8c9a…
05-14 14:51:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0xed61b0…
05-14 14:27:51	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x2c9888…
05-14 10:50:37	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	5¢	$20	0xf85a16…
05-13 10:18:36	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x8c05d7…
05-13 10:18:25	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	474	6¢	$30	0x85d8c0…
05-13 05:19:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	9¢	$20	0x0d5cfa…
05-13 05:18:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x6519da…
05-12 12:03:42	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	138	85¢	$117	0x5b086d…
05-12 08:50:18	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	138	73¢	$100	0x9577fd…
05-12 05:55:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	109	91¢	$100	0xfa8e81…
04-10 12:02:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,447	13¢	$186	0xa4fbcb…
04-10 12:02:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	837	9¢	$75	0xc10505…
01-29 12:15:30	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	2,497	3¢	$69	0xd44410…