Grumpy-Marble — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$102

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved

675

Trades

13,239

lifetime

Volume

$60.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 05-26 03:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 71% $-125

Other

9% 74% +$23

Politics

6% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 3259 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	8	$619	1,030	470	+560	open	—	01-15 18:22
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	23	$594	800	800	+0	open	—	02-28 01:04
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$500	551	0	+551	open	—	01-15 00:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$460	500	0	+500	open	—	01-17 19:15
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$428	256	256	+0	open	—	01-22 20:34
us strikes iran by january 24 2026 318	1	$413	420	0	+420	open	—	01-24 18:32
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	2	$397	200	200	+0	open	—	01-21 19:23
btc updown 15m 1770667200	19	$374	486	0	+486	open	—	02-09 20:09
will gold gc hit high 5300 by end of january 386 158	2	$272	140	140	+0	open	—	01-28 18:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	57	$258	371	0	+371	Up	+$112	05-08 01:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	44	$231	294	0	+294	Up	+$63	05-07 13:26
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$229	238	0	+238	open	—	01-21 19:24
btc updown 15m 1770673500	14	$229	273	0	+273	open	—	02-09 21:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	78	$221	373	0	+373	Down	$-221	05-07 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	63	$218	253	0	+253	Down	+$35	05-07 22:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	40	$217	241	0	+241	Up	+$24	05-07 11:09
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$214	200	200	+0	open	—	01-22 02:20
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	1	$210	300	0	+300	open	—	01-25 19:31
btc updown 15m 1770309000	13	$210	354	0	+354	open	—	02-05 16:43
btc updown 15m 1770228900	31	$208	356	0	+356	open	—	02-04 18:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	80	$207	298	0	+298	Down	+$87	05-07 07:22
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	2	$205	299	0	+299	open	—	05-01 06:11
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	1	$200	244	0	+244	open	—	02-23 21:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	1	$200	350	0	+350	open	—	04-23 02:50
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on humanitys last exam by january 31 459	1	$200	215	0	+215	open	—	01-17 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	70	$200	262	0	+262	Up	$-198	05-07 22:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	66	$199	239	0	+239	Down	+$40	05-07 08:20
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	01-20 23:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	2	$198	133	133	+0	open	—	05-26 03:59
gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	1	$196	200	0	+200	open	—	01-26 00:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-26 03:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	133	74¢	$98	0xe8bdc4…
05-26 03:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x2f28d3…
05-23 15:16:37	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$2	0x0a6bb1…
05-22 18:12:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x729104…
05-22 18:11:06	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xde5b15…
05-22 18:10:14	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x46cec0…
05-22 17:39:03	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd862c9…
05-22 16:11:47	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x69c5ac…
05-22 16:11:45	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xe348b1…
05-22 16:11:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x58e91a…
05-22 15:58:08	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xad77b0…
05-22 15:57:43	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	63¢	$3	0x6070b9…
05-22 15:57:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x89e56a…
05-22 15:57:07	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0xbd9baf…
05-22 15:41:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8bc341…
05-22 15:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x7f1985…
05-22 15:25:19	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x612b66…
05-22 15:25:17	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7c22ce…
05-22 15:25:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x381811…
05-22 15:23:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$6	0x46a1a9…
05-22 15:14:19	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xf9d9ba…
05-22 15:13:51	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0xaf4f70…
05-22 15:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x4e9fa0…
05-22 15:13:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x5e1341…
05-22 15:11:09	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x7a6b57…
05-22 14:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xefb5fd…
05-22 14:56:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x9c72a0…
05-22 14:56:21	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x390128…
05-22 14:43:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x06a003…
05-22 14:43:17	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb4eab5…
05-22 14:42:51	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xa2b8b9…
05-22 14:23:03	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x4a5a4f…
05-22 14:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x282e5a…
05-22 14:22:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x25adb9…
05-22 14:22:33	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x3fed6b…
05-22 14:10:01	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xf053be…
05-22 14:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x716d17…
05-22 14:09:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x958da0…
05-22 13:23:21	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x494e82…
05-22 13:23:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0x7597b9…
05-22 13:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x8f673c…
05-22 13:12:12	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	81¢	$11	0xfc62d1…
05-22 13:09:47	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0xdc94f7…
05-22 13:09:45	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	78	15¢	$11	0x7b4983…
05-22 13:09:26	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x32db2b…
05-22 13:08:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x3d7f3d…
05-22 13:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x1bf427…
05-22 12:59:08	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1,264	1¢	$16	0x6573ab…
05-22 12:58:59	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	95	6¢	$6	0xbcba6b…
05-22 12:58:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	60	29¢	$17	0x01d9f1…
05-22 06:12:59	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	24	30¢	$7	0x0e220e…
05-22 06:12:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x7671bb…
05-22 06:10:59	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	39	19¢	$7	0xd1cd12…
05-22 06:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x996a0c…
05-22 05:56:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xa915d9…
05-22 05:56:41	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xa73dcb…
05-22 05:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xb6ae11…
05-22 05:56:34	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x21c8c6…
05-22 05:56:01	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	68¢	$6	0x39189d…
05-22 05:55:05	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x9f2d30…
05-22 05:41:54	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x1be3a7…
05-22 05:41:40	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcf8c09…
05-22 05:41:33	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xc29868…
05-22 05:41:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4307d3…
05-22 05:41:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x02d6b0…
05-22 05:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe8e191…
05-22 05:40:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xd9b238…
05-22 05:24:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x8928b6…
05-22 05:24:38	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0xd10095…
05-22 05:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xf50eb2…
05-22 05:24:08	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x031685…
05-22 05:13:36	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	89¢	$7	0x81353a…
05-22 05:12:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$7	0x73c252…
05-22 05:12:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x2b7709…
05-22 05:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xefda50…
05-22 04:59:05	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf2ceee…
05-22 04:57:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x177509…
05-22 04:57:16	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x5450d1…
05-22 04:57:04	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x754051…
05-22 04:57:04	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x10cb9b…
05-22 04:57:04	Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x04a965…
05-22 04:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0x8d2d48…
05-22 04:55:37	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	73¢	$6	0x889eaa…
05-22 04:55:12	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$6	0x9dd459…
05-22 04:41:51	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xada383…
05-22 04:41:40	BNB Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9d57a0…
05-22 03:59:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	74¢	$1	0x750539…
05-22 03:58:42	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf381b6…
05-22 03:58:42	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xa88385…
05-22 03:58:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2b2b36…
05-22 03:58:42	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x001fb2…
05-22 03:58:39	XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x5e30b9…
05-22 03:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x69685d…
05-22 03:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xaff000…
05-22 03:54:23	BNB Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xf1fd8b…
05-22 03:54:22	BNB Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0xf46af7…
05-22 03:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	116	3¢	$3	0x11e20a…
05-22 03:44:25	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0x62a526…
05-22 03:44:23	hype updown 15m 1779420600	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x893856…
05-22 03:44:23	hype updown 15m 1779420600	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x10e111…