Spectacular-Failure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$709

Unrealized P&L

+$229

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

732

Trades

7,493

lifetime

Volume

$1.39M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$186

Open exposure

$1.41K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 11-01 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 222 days

Categories

Politics

60% 61% -$6,127

Other

39% 55% +$8,150

Tech

1% 75% +$1,692

Sports

1% 44% -$1,998

Crypto

0% 43% -$1,008

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 110 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes		+14,849	$2,557	10¢	$1.4K	-$1,147	10-29 08:01
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No		+0	-$1,375	98¢	$0	+$1,375	10-30 23:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	77	$35.9K	26,583	26,583	+0	No	+$592	05-01 11:24
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	204	$30.6K	33,828	23,327	+10,500	Yes	+$9,147	10-06 02:54
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	44	$27.4K	17,583	17,583	+0	No	+$1,691	10-20 02:22
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	45	$25.3K	18,857	10,229	+8,628	Yes	+$3,260	04-30 20:40
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	129	$22.5K	52,713	19,713	+33,000	No	-$8,264	08-07 21:23
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	87	$19.8K	22,649	16,492	+6,157	No	+$3,145	10-01 01:54
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	22	$17.7K	12,892	12,892	+0	Yes	+$468	05-01 18:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	37	$15.8K	10,970	10,970	+0	open	—	11-01 04:58
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	14	$15.0K	11,262	11,262	+0	Yes	-$97	05-01 21:14
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	38	$14.1K	11,948	8,986	+2,961	Yes	+$1,515	05-16 01:20
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	410	$13.4K	150,697	90,696	+60,000	No	-$53	06-29 09:23
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	33	$12.2K	12,234	6,935	+5,298	Yes	-$873	05-28 15:21
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	20	$12.1K	6,770	6,770	+0	No	+$271	07-15 23:57
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	20	$11.9K	7,045	7,045	+0	open	—	10-30 23:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	40	$11.6K	9,097	9,097	+0	No	+$51	07-31 00:38
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	85	$11.0K	19,594	19,594	+0	No	-$555	08-20 14:44
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	52	$11.0K	10,350	9,168	+1,181	Yes	+$640	07-23 03:33
nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	29	$10.8K	5,739	5,739	+0	Yes	+$107	08-20 16:29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	95	$10.3K	56,320	51,559	+4,761	Yes	-$2,271	10-26 00:11
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	17	$10.2K	6,738	6,738	+0	open	—	08-02 09:49
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	25	$9.9K	6,934	6,934	+0	No	-$748	03-28 05:20
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?	61	$9.6K	6,230	6,230	+0	No	+$1,134	07-28 15:50
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	77	$9.1K	104,155	116,573	-12,418	No	-$306	05-26 20:33
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	26	$9.1K	6,886	6,886	+0	Yes	-$339	03-29 03:58
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	27	$8.8K	7,433	7,433	+0	Yes	-$56	04-27 18:13
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	54	$8.6K	12,114	11,914	+200	Yes	-$496	09-20 15:01
will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	33	$8.5K	6,974	3,986	+2,988	No	+$1,327	08-21 22:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	21	$8.5K	4,808	4,808	+0	No	+$195	07-30 05:24
iran full airspace closure by july 24	21	$8.2K	4,372	4,372	+0	No	+$373	07-25 03:06
will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	33	$8.0K	4,746	4,746	+0	Yes	+$1,360	08-21 21:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 16:59:19	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x487200…
11-01 16:25:54	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xf1a9b4…
11-01 15:51:34	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	65¢	$96	0xb9a2f9…
11-01 15:51:19	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x4ad798…
11-01 15:40:48	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	266	48¢	$127	0x5db97f…
11-01 15:33:21	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	300	23¢	$69	0x7bdc07…
11-01 15:20:28	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	450	40¢	$180	0xdd5edc…
11-01 15:18:52	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x984dcb…
11-01 09:24:10	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	1,013	4¢	$41	0xace20c…
11-01 08:29:21	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xe96504…
11-01 07:56:33	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	1,162	5¢	$58	0xc9f196…
11-01 07:56:33	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x8efc6b…
11-01 07:56:33	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	37	4¢	$1	0x644e66…
11-01 07:12:39	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	438	4¢	$18	0x9f1a61…
11-01 07:10:51	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	Yes	BUY	2,094	41¢	$856	0x63434c…
11-01 07:10:37	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	494	3¢	$15	0xa36e1d…
11-01 06:49:45	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	105	3¢	$3	0x568111…
11-01 06:38:25	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	309	8¢	$24	0x652c18…
11-01 06:38:12	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0xcea013…
11-01 06:33:15	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	133	10¢	$13	0x3c1a57…
11-01 06:33:01	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	44¢	$13	0x4e8e9d…
11-01 06:30:01	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	206	12¢	$25	0x552895…
11-01 06:29:42	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	42¢	$25	0xd7a7c0…
11-01 06:19:15	Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	421	95¢	$400	0xc93dce…
11-01 06:18:51	Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x782b05…
11-01 05:55:19	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	196	45¢	$88	0x1a50a7…
11-01 05:49:30	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	246	45¢	$110	0x96974e…
11-01 05:48:07	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	299	45¢	$135	0x658c95…
11-01 05:47:01	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0x893bd0…
11-01 05:45:27	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	384	42¢	$161	0x07944a…
11-01 05:38:01	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,141	0¢	$2	0x210e19…
11-01 05:01:25	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4,331	34¢	$1,489	0xd5415b…
11-01 04:59:31	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,692	98¢	$1,659	0x21c02b…
11-01 04:58:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,927	99¢	$1,910	0xa8e132…
11-01 00:25:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0x03cd15…
11-01 00:21:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xaaf7bc…
11-01 00:09:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x61c615…
11-01 00:09:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,553	99¢	$1,534	0x3dcdb4…
11-01 00:09:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	158	99¢	$156	0x1941f4…
10-31 23:57:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0x3868b7…
10-31 23:53:36	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x63e453…
10-31 23:52:55	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	364	55¢	$200	0x0892fb…
10-31 23:52:13	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	315	58¢	$183	0xc9878e…
10-31 23:52:07	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x541d9e…
10-31 23:12:19	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	150	14¢	$21	0xafce18…
10-31 23:10:48	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,333	15¢	$200	0x60ade0…
10-31 23:09:39	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	769	26¢	$200	0x767f54…
10-31 23:09:04	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	317	63¢	$200	0x62ec2a…
10-31 23:05:55	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,441	100¢	$2,436	0xc2f59d…
10-31 23:05:15	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	481	62¢	$300	0x1ac2e5…
10-31 17:09:37	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	451	88¢	$397	0x497ff1…
10-31 17:04:28	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	336	89¢	$298	0x9c894e…
10-31 16:59:51	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	226	88¢	$198	0x065ce8…
10-31 16:53:33	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,138	21¢	$239	0x1d1e92…
10-31 16:42:34	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	349	85¢	$297	0x8c047c…
10-31 16:42:06	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	615	80¢	$493	0x24047f…
10-31 16:41:37	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	387	80¢	$308	0x6f2089…
10-31 16:40:54	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	77¢	$59	0x611db1…
10-30 23:55:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,008	99¢	$1,000	0x1d6c8f…
10-30 23:54:00	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4,111	94¢	$3,882	0xd576bd…
10-30 23:46:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	825	99¢	$817	0xe48948…
10-30 23:31:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x590130…
10-30 22:54:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	964	95¢	$916	0x8cb392…
10-30 22:53:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	257	90¢	$232	0xdf7430…
10-30 22:53:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	91¢	$41	0xb2a844…
10-30 22:49:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,205	95¢	$1,144	0xe1f400…
10-30 22:13:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	531	94¢	$500	0xdf1dc8…
10-30 11:59:33	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	327	95¢	$311	0xa1d44d…
10-30 07:06:13	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	SELL	328	97¢	$319	0x5d9c68…
10-30 02:15:01	Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4aa2d7…
10-30 01:38:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,134	87¢	$990	0x6870b6…
10-30 01:31:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,737	57¢	$990	0x291be4…
10-30 00:56:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	353	85¢	$300	0xbd6745…
10-30 00:56:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	314	96¢	$300	0xc7be95…
10-30 00:50:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	63	86¢	$54	0xc24e1e…
10-30 00:49:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	250	86¢	$215	0x6d4073…
10-30 00:49:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	56	97¢	$54	0x2c9ac7…
10-30 00:49:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	222	97¢	$215	0x10c1f0…
10-30 00:45:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	637	89¢	$564	0x6bc97a…
10-30 00:44:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	592	95¢	$564	0x439b9e…
10-30 00:44:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	337	84¢	$284	0xaf4507…
10-30 00:44:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	296	96¢	$284	0x61f5b5…
10-30 00:43:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	428	82¢	$351	0x0cf4fa…
10-30 00:38:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	370	95¢	$351	0x5b79e4…
10-30 00:35:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	766	73¢	$558	0x521a56…
10-30 00:35:40	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	600	93¢	$558	0xb59ca5…
10-30 00:35:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	482	74¢	$357	0x40bd4e…
10-30 00:34:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,573	73¢	$1,151	0xada24d…
10-30 00:33:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	2,279	32¢	$735	0x531320…
10-30 00:16:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	61	53¢	$33	0x0cbabf…
10-30 00:15:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	347	53¢	$184	0x2248aa…
10-30 00:15:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0x043957…
10-30 00:15:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0xbd5f21…
10-30 00:15:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x6da36e…
10-30 00:15:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	14	53¢	$7	0xc6b211…
10-30 00:15:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	109	54¢	$59	0x1324b8…
10-30 00:14:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	494	50¢	$247	0x2be97b…
10-30 00:13:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	218	50¢	$109	0xd83626…
10-29 23:15:06	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	115	94¢	$108	0xdb26d7…
10-29 23:10:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	626	91¢	$572	0x6af0f6…