Realized P&L
-$4
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
63.3%
Resolved
62
Trades
4,359
lifetime
Volume
$21.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$26
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-05
last 07-18 17:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Crypto
91% 60% $-4
Politics
5%
Other
4%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
50 active days in 12wk • peak 831 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +13 $5 42¢ $5 +$0 07-06 10:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +13 $5 36¢ $5 $-0 07-05 10:16
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +13 $5 32¢ $4 $-0 07-06 18:14
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $4 $3 $-1 07-05 14:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +6 $5 54¢ $3 $-2 07-05 03:23
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +3 $2 74¢ $2 $-0 07-06 08:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +3 $0 30¢ $1 +$1 07-05 20:44
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +6 $1 11¢ $1 $-0 07-05 20:41
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +5 $0 $0 $-0 07-04 23:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +38 $5 $0 $-5 07-06 13:54
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 13¢ $0 $-2 07-18 04:24
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +1 $0 22¢ $0 +$0 07-05 11:56
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes +1 $0 12¢ $0 +$0 07-05 16:11
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $0 26¢ $0 $-0 07-06 05:56
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $-5 87¢ $0 +$5 07-18 04:24