Dramatic-Loaf — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$170

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$68

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 10-27 06:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

45% 50% -$97

Other

32% 25% -$49

Crypto

21% 22% +$79

Sports

2% 0% -$100

Tech

1% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	2	$1.2K	616	616	+0	No	+$49	04-17 20:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$1.2K	797	797	+0	No	-$146	04-19 17:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	2	$1.1K	692	684	+7	No	+$118	04-23 10:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	2	$550	335	335	+0	Yes	+$114	05-23 07:58
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$521	1,363	1,363	+0	open	—	05-30 18:00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$158	15,777	15,777	+0	No	-$63	04-17 21:22
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	9	$130	148	148	+0	open	—	10-25 10:55
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	4	$118	123	123	+0	open	—	10-26 10:00
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$100	200	0	+200	No	-$100	05-30 18:56
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	1	$100	3,333	0	+3,333	No	-$100	05-30 18:00
pete hegseth impeached by june 30 2027	2	$83	76	76	+0	open	—	10-14 17:09
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	2	$52	60	60	+0	open	—	10-18 08:27
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	2	$43	60	60	+0	open	—	10-20 05:42
will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	2	$41	28	28	+0	No	-$3	10-14 11:13
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by November 30, 2026?	2	$32	21	21	+0	open	—	10-27 00:44
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$27	40	40	+0	open	—	10-18 08:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$25	34	0	+34	Up	+$9	05-23 08:04
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	2	$24	21	21	+0	Yes	-$5	10-26 09:23
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	2	$15	35	35	+0	open	—	10-27 06:20
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 97?	2	$13	20	20	+0	open	—	10-23 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$10	100	0	+100	Down	-$10	05-23 08:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	1	$10	77	0	+77	Up	-$10	05-23 08:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	1	$10	117	0	+117	Up	-$10	05-23 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	7	$4	100	0	+100	Up	-$4	05-02 07:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	7	$4	100	0	+100	Up	-$4	05-02 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	13	$4	100	0	+100	Up	-$4	05-02 06:59
friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before june 30 2027	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	10-14 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	1	$2	100	0	+100	Up	-$2	05-02 06:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 06:20:09	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Yes	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0x633568…
10-27 06:19:35	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Yes	BUY	35	21¢	$7	0x08c4a3…
10-27 00:44:02	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	73¢	$15	0x6de283…
10-26 23:50:12	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x174d1f…
10-26 10:00:08	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	62	18¢	$11	0xe8ade1…
10-26 09:23:06	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	46¢	$10	0x137db1…
10-26 08:29:35	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	62	21¢	$13	0x495f73…
10-26 07:52:53	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0x942db3…
10-26 07:36:06	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	61	77¢	$47	0x790416…
10-26 07:35:20	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	61	77¢	$47	0xd3ff47…
10-25 10:55:06	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	78	42¢	$33	0x2b31bc…
10-25 10:54:29	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	47	45¢	$21	0x786293…
10-25 01:39:26	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	57	46¢	$26	0x927b23…
10-25 01:39:24	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xffe003…
10-25 01:39:24	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0xa82dfd…
10-24 12:54:06	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xa0def6…
10-24 12:52:32	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x54d038…
10-24 12:49:06	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	13	42¢	$5	0x7632b9…
10-24 12:48:36	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	13	42¢	$5	0x92d051…
10-23 09:39:51	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 97?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xe94a12…
10-23 09:27:20	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 97?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xbdbc1c…
10-20 05:42:41	Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	SELL	60	35¢	$21	0x91d169…
10-19 19:06:05	Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	BUY	60	37¢	$22	0xfb99c7…
10-18 08:27:36	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0xc7d123…
10-18 08:27:33	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	41¢	$25	0x691d9e…
10-15 21:15:35	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	46¢	$28	0xfa3ba0…
10-14 17:33:43	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xc98cd2…
10-14 17:09:10	pete hegseth impeached by june 30 2027	No	SELL	76	52¢	$39	0x68c79e…
10-14 15:41:58	pete hegseth impeached by june 30 2027	No	BUY	76	58¢	$44	0xb45fd8…
10-14 14:59:58	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xbad146…
10-14 14:59:58	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x96a805…
10-14 14:10:48	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xacef48…
10-14 11:13:16	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	No	SELL	28	67¢	$19	0x726989…
10-14 06:45:44	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x2190fa…
10-14 04:02:47	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	28	79¢	$22	0xa2a87b…
05-30 18:56:55	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x1e769d…
05-30 18:00:48	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	3,333	3¢	$100	0x06ea40…
05-30 18:00:13	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,363	17¢	$232	0x2f7b72…
05-23 08:24:43	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,363	21¢	$290	0x7422df…
05-23 08:16:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x248c4a…
05-23 08:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	117	9¢	$10	0x2ec2d7…
05-23 08:07:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x13d327…
05-23 08:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xd8a7ee…
05-23 07:58:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	335	99¢	$332	0x5ad311…
05-04 11:55:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	335	65¢	$218	0x76ec5a…
05-02 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0xf8f34d…
05-02 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xb40e74…
05-02 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x37df07…
05-02 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x1ff3b2…
05-02 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x185f86…
05-02 07:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x0fcd77…
05-02 07:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x3459c8…
05-02 06:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xc07116…
05-02 06:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x546fb0…
05-02 06:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x3f7d49…
05-02 06:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x19a6f4…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xf5967d…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xf54a45…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf47fb7…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe37af0…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x629dec…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x52c824…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x315b83…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x307bfd…
05-02 06:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0x2cc92a…
05-02 06:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xa2ed8a…
05-02 06:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x9159ad…
05-02 06:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x603d81…
05-02 06:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x522b48…
05-02 06:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x26b917…
05-02 06:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x1d22b5…
05-02 06:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x046601…
05-02 06:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6e07da…
04-23 10:25:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	SELL	684	90¢	$616	0x0c3afa…
04-19 17:40:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	BUY	692	73¢	$505	0x355571…
04-19 17:31:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	797	63¢	$505	0x332fde…
04-17 21:27:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	797	82¢	$651	0x04b31b…
04-17 21:22:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15,777	0¢	$47	0x7281b2…
04-17 20:28:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	SELL	616	98¢	$604	0x9472dc…
04-16 08:31:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	616	90¢	$555	0x3eec30…
04-11 10:11:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15,777	1¢	$110	0x5a83ac…