Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$174

Unrealized P&L

-$256

Hit rate

53.3%

Resolved

209

Trades

533

lifetime

Volume

$3.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$46

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 10-08 15:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 34% -$11

Other

23% 31% -$87

Politics

5% 11% -$70

Sports

1% 27% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes		+1,287	$254	3¢	$35	-$219	09-15 06:13
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Yes		+1,082	$48	1¢	$11	-$37	10-08 15:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:55 UTC	6	$446	386	353	+33	Down	+$36	03-23 00:02
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	4	$254	1,287	0	+1,287	open	—	09-15 06:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 00:05 UTC	3	$246	278	110	+168	Up	-$27	03-23 00:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:35 UTC	18	$238	260	117	+143	Up	-$6	03-22 23:41
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	3	$150	625	625	+0	No	-$50	10-08 15:07
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	3	$127	83	83	+0	Yes	+$38	03-25 15:35
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	4	$114	1,934	0	+1,934	No	-$114	09-21 11:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 22:00 UTC	3	$102	200	100	+100	Up	+$98	03-22 22:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 00:25 UTC	1	$102	116	0	+116	Down	-$102	03-23 00:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 22:50 UTC	5	$60	58	53	+5	Down	+$44	03-22 22:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:30 UTC	4	$52	151	27	+125	Down	+$2	03-22 23:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC	5	$51	266	38	+228	Up	+$25	09-14 20:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	6	$50	269	28	+241	Down	+$6	09-17 13:01
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	1	$48	1,082	0	+1,082	open	—	10-08 15:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	7	$44	69	28	+41	Down	+$12	09-20 16:55
will spd win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$36	21	21	+0	Yes	+$6	03-22 21:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 23:20 UTC	6	$36	54	16	+38	Down	-$4	03-22 23:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:30 UTC	4	$35	47	9	+38	Up	-$17	04-03 16:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:00 UTC	3	$35	192	25	+167	Up	+$15	09-14 18:05
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	2	$34	29	29	+0	Yes	+$24	09-18 16:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 07:35 UTC	4	$34	37	16	+21	Up	-$1	03-23 07:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	5	$34	158	22	+136	Up	+$10	09-14 18:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	6	$33	150	18	+132	Up	+$3	09-18 09:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 21:40 UTC	6	$32	32	17	+15	Up	+$2	03-28 21:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 21:50 UTC	9	$29	180	17	+163	Down	+$5	03-28 21:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 21:25 UTC	7	$29	31	16	+15	Up	+$3	03-28 21:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 22:05 UTC	7	$23	126	14	+112	Down	+$5	03-28 22:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 20:05 UTC	7	$22	51	8	+43	Up	-$6	03-29 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 21:55 UTC	8	$22	34	10	+25	Up	-$2	03-28 22:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 06:25 UTC	6	$20	18	15	+3	Down	+$4	03-23 06:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 15:08:06	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	1,082	4¢	$48	0x541af5…
10-08 15:07:38	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	625	8¢	$50	0x9f13a2…
09-21 11:18:33	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	375	5¢	$19	0xed6ae4…
09-20 21:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xfcd96f…
09-20 21:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xf23e6a…
09-20 21:23:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xca88dd…
09-20 21:21:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xd90b4e…
09-20 21:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x088b21…
09-20 21:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x009bb2…
09-20 21:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x0c62a3…
09-20 21:21:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x786181…
09-20 21:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xce77ad…
09-20 21:17:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x860d64…
09-20 16:57:25	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	BUY	465	4¢	$20	0x5179be…
09-20 16:56:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x893f0a…
09-20 16:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x56e727…
09-20 16:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x199d23…
09-20 16:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x4114d7…
09-20 16:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x90c9eb…
09-20 16:52:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xfabe00…
09-20 16:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xdb2eb9…
09-20 16:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x4d4a00…
09-20 14:00:10	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0x2dbc0e…
09-18 16:27:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x195886…
09-18 13:12:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xed95bf…
09-18 09:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x2ffa94…
09-18 09:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x82e4bc…
09-18 09:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x6f8692…
09-18 09:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x35b7db…
09-18 09:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1ea7f1…
09-18 09:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x13e4c7…
09-18 06:53:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 06:50 UTC	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xb88e26…
09-18 05:10:03	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x920b0f…
09-17 13:13:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x61fe57…
09-17 13:13:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x0f2cdd…
09-17 13:13:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x9a5d2e…
09-17 13:11:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x3e1b95…
09-17 13:10:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6d4f2e…
09-17 13:05:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xc9ccf4…
09-17 13:01:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	Down	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x04867b…
09-17 12:59:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x67603b…
09-17 12:58:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x540a9a…
09-17 12:58:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x7940d4…
09-17 12:58:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x90f0ad…
09-17 12:56:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 12:55 UTC	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x76a2d7…
09-17 07:52:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x258c30…
09-16 08:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xe34cfb…
09-16 07:48:39	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	306	8¢	$25	0xf3a6cf…
09-16 07:47:25	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	788	6¢	$50	0x821375…
09-15 06:13:00	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	184	24¢	$44	0x640ba3…
09-14 20:38:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5c9ee6…
09-14 20:37:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x41f025…
09-14 20:36:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC	Up	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xeee4da…
09-14 20:34:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xf509c7…
09-14 20:34:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xa60ab0…
09-14 20:33:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x233090…
09-14 20:32:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x873cd6…
09-14 18:21:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x30b0f9…
09-14 18:19:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1e63b0…
09-14 18:18:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x48644c…
09-14 18:18:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xd60683…
09-14 18:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfd0b46…
09-14 18:17:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x4e74f5…
09-14 18:11:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xa37426…
09-14 18:10:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	Up	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x18a047…
09-14 18:09:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa1409f…
09-14 18:09:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xcea38d…
09-14 18:08:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xcf2d84…
09-14 18:06:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x4b0a73…
09-14 18:05:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:00 UTC	Up	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x7780bf…
09-14 18:04:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x677877…
09-14 18:03:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xf82857…
09-14 17:53:01	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	750	20¢	$150	0xb6b971…
09-11 08:46:49	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	206	17¢	$35	0xa5c54a…
09-11 08:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc58c4e…
09-11 08:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9af38a…
09-11 08:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x15a816…
09-11 08:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xac26fa…
09-11 08:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc9159a…
09-11 08:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xcbba24…
09-11 08:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x60ba31…
09-11 08:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe087eb…
09-11 08:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xb91132…
09-11 07:42:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x98f8b8…
09-11 07:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x93103f…
09-11 07:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xd0ae46…
09-11 07:37:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x4678a9…
09-11 07:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	17	34¢	$6	0xa0d3e1…
09-11 07:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x35ab07…
09-11 07:32:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	17¢	$25	0xa18b86…
04-29 21:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1dbdcc…
04-29 21:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xa5a59e…
04-29 21:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdcf35c…
04-29 21:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xfa1ed4…
04-29 21:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x864d32…
04-29 21:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc878c9…
04-29 21:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x0aeb4e…
04-29 21:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x26ed3f…
04-29 21:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x3f3216…
04-29 21:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xee870d…