Apprehensive-Nation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.1%

Resolved

Trades

391

lifetime

Volume

$5.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 05-12 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

46% 18% $-2

Other

32% 0% $-14

Politics

22% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$585	722	722	+0	open	—	03-06 10:40
will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	2	$287	370	370	+0	open	—	03-27 22:15
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$202	359	359	+0	open	—	03-07 01:38
btc updown 15m 1770324300	2	$174	166	166	+0	open	—	02-05 21:00
will iran strike dimona by march 31	2	$138	417	417	+0	open	—	03-21 17:12
btc updown 5m 1771097100	7	$120	195	130	+64	open	—	02-14 19:29
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	3	$113	1,453	1,453	+0	open	—	02-08 14:56
us strikes iran by february 7 2026	2	$107	1,429	1,429	+0	open	—	02-05 21:53
btc updown 5m 1771096200	6	$105	129	78	+51	open	—	02-14 19:14
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	2	$100	250	250	+0	open	—	02-06 02:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$100	312	312	+0	open	—	02-06 02:16
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$97	263	263	+0	open	—	02-05 22:02
btc updown 5m 1771083300	3	$94	146	78	+68	open	—	02-14 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	2	$93	158	158	+0	Down	+$33	05-11 12:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$93	714	714	+0	open	—	02-06 02:00
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	2	$91	1,826	1,826	+0	open	—	02-06 13:32
btc updown 5m 1771096800	5	$91	107	106	+1	open	—	02-14 19:23
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of march	1	$88	4,630	0	+4,630	open	—	03-21 17:39
btc updown 5m 1771095900	6	$82	83	68	+15	open	—	02-14 19:08
btc updown 5m 1771082700	4	$73	127	84	+42	open	—	02-14 15:29
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	2	$68	7,824	7,824	+0	open	—	02-07 23:15
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	2	$66	4,809	1,500	+3,309	open	—	03-09 14:31
btc updown 15m 1770510600	2	$64	542	0	+542	open	—	02-08 00:44
btc updown 5m 1771096500	3	$62	74	70	+4	open	—	02-14 19:19
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	1	$60	932	0	+932	open	—	03-02 23:18
btc updown 15m 1770656400	2	$55	47	46	+1	open	—	02-09 17:02
eth updown 15m 1772847000	2	$51	50	50	+0	open	—	03-07 01:46
btc updown 5m 1771082400	3	$51	251	51	+201	open	—	02-14 15:24
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	1	$50	962	0	+962	open	—	03-07 02:15
will the us next strike iran on february 7 2026 et	1	$50	1,283	0	+1,283	open	—	02-05 20:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 16:32:39	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	334	0¢	$1	0xba4f48…
05-11 19:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	35	36¢	$13	0x06d262…
05-11 19:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	210	2¢	$5	0xa452a2…
05-11 19:27:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0xbbe886…
05-11 19:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4ba792…
05-11 18:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	47	55¢	$26	0xb3a660…
05-11 18:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	47	31¢	$14	0xeed4e4…
05-11 18:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc29d4c…
05-11 18:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xc6d603…
05-11 18:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3ed4b7…
05-11 18:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe18b4f…
05-11 18:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x54d324…
05-11 16:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7d76a5…
05-11 16:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	800	1¢	$8	0x43efdb…
05-11 16:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbc51fc…
05-11 12:45:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x1d329a…
05-11 12:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	158	40¢	$63	0xaf93ee…
05-11 12:37:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0x4f47dc…
05-11 11:08:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	305	7¢	$20	0x1ee699…
05-11 11:08:12	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	308	13¢	$40	0x428ce9…
05-11 11:05:49	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0xd2042e…
05-10 23:18:00	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	334	4¢	$15	0x00cd06…
05-10 23:15:36	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$2	0xc4f199…
05-10 23:05:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$3	0x551099…
05-10 23:04:28	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xa1de0f…
04-10 15:22:35	btc updown 5m 1775834400	Down	BUY	72	27¢	$19	0x2f3ac4…
04-10 15:15:13	btc updown 5m 1775833800	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0xac0d98…
04-10 15:12:59	btc updown 5m 1775833800	Down	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xf452bf…
04-10 15:12:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,103	1¢	$11	0x9d2b86…
03-27 22:36:23	btc updown 5m 1774650900	Up	BUY	38	22¢	$9	0x7a9673…
03-27 22:28:33	btc updown 5m 1774650300	Up	SELL	53	16¢	$9	0xa89b65…
03-27 22:28:11	btc updown 5m 1774650300	Up	BUY	53	12¢	$6	0xc5d0c4…
03-27 22:20:03	btc updown 5m 1774649700	Up	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x23baf3…
03-27 22:15:21	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,250	0¢	$1	0x8fca90…
03-27 22:15:19	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	Yes	SELL	370	0¢	$1	0xc3ddd9…
03-24 16:25:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,103	1¢	$14	0x5344fc…
03-24 16:25:05	will nvda dip to 116 in march	Yes	SELL	427	0¢	$1	0x352098…
03-24 16:24:57	will trump cut off trade with spain	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xe699b1…
03-24 16:24:53	will trump send tomahawk to ukraine by march 31	Yes	SELL	334	0¢	$1	0x8c16a3…
03-24 16:24:47	will germany strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	257	1¢	$2	0x0ab9cc…
03-24 16:24:45	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	904	0¢	$3	0x338d70…
03-24 16:24:43	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	526	1¢	$4	0x334a70…
03-24 16:24:43	will india strike pakistan by march 31	Yes	SELL	256	1¢	$2	0x2846c4…
03-21 17:39:19	will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of march	Yes	BUY	4,630	2¢	$88	0x3efb1e…
03-21 17:12:37	will iran strike dimona by march 31	Yes	SELL	417	21¢	$88	0xcc3a34…
03-09 14:31:27	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	4,760	0¢	$14	0xda8e94…
03-09 14:31:11	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	Yes	SELL	1,500	1¢	$14	0xcf6e6b…
03-07 02:23:37	sol updown 5m 1772850000	Up	BUY	176	2¢	$4	0x4dbc9a…
03-07 02:23:21	btc updown 5m 1772850000	Down	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0x560182…
03-07 02:21:39	btc updown 5m 1772850000	Down	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x77ef56…
03-07 02:20:55	will frankenstein win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x82085b…
03-07 02:20:03	will iran strike kuwait in march	No	SELL	250	2¢	$4	0x7640cd…
03-07 02:18:03	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	4,809	1¢	$52	0x9ef73d…
03-07 02:15:37	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	962	5¢	$50	0x0950a0…
03-07 02:15:05	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xdba567…
03-07 02:14:51	will gold gc hit high 6600 by end of march	Yes	BUY	621	2¢	$9	0x0a0030…
03-07 02:14:47	will gold gc hit high 7000 by end of march	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xbf9462…
03-07 02:12:37	will india strike pakistan by march 31	Yes	BUY	256	8¢	$20	0x93a70c…
03-07 02:12:17	will trump send tomahawk to ukraine by march 31	Yes	BUY	334	3¢	$10	0xbfd5ad…
03-07 02:10:05	btc updown 5m 1772849100	Down	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0x5ac70b…
03-07 02:07:07	will germany strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	257	4¢	$10	0xbd701b…
03-07 02:06:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	526	2¢	$10	0xabc12f…
03-07 01:59:17	btc updown 5m 1772848500	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xe6828a…
03-07 01:58:17	eth updown 15m 1772847900	Down	BUY	133	3¢	$4	0xc204c5…
03-07 01:54:53	xrp updown 5m 1772848200	Down	BUY	169	3¢	$5	0xec2c02…
03-07 01:46:11	eth updown 15m 1772847000	Up	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x1fa40d…
03-07 01:44:09	eth updown 15m 1772847000	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf73e00…
03-07 01:39:55	btc updown 5m 1772847300	Down	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xd3f81b…
03-07 01:38:25	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	SELL	359	42¢	$152	0xb9fb86…
03-06 11:51:51	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	Yes	BUY	370	77¢	$285	0x9b3f9a…
03-06 11:49:25	qatarenergy resumes lng production by march 14	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x877013…
03-06 11:48:27	will iran strike dimona by march 31	Yes	BUY	417	12¢	$50	0x4aca67…
03-06 11:46:47	iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xbd6c93…
03-06 11:45:53	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	417	1¢	$5	0x72bc58…
03-06 11:44:47	will iran strike iraq in march	No	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x3bcec3…
03-06 11:44:43	will iran strike bahrain in march	No	BUY	135	1¢	$1	0x97e872…
03-06 11:44:39	will iran strike kuwait in march	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x137cfe…
03-06 11:04:27	btc updown 5m 1772794800	Up	BUY	116	2¢	$2	0xe55d84…
03-06 10:59:13	will trump cut off trade with spain	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x01919d…
03-06 10:54:33	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x9e282d…
03-06 10:51:49	will gold gc hit high 7000 by end of march	Yes	BUY	865	1¢	$10	0x1db907…
03-06 10:44:59	btc updown 5m 1772793600	Down	BUY	101	5¢	$5	0xaa23cf…
03-06 10:42:35	xrp up or down march 6 5am et	Down	BUY	308	3¢	$10	0x8707b4…
03-06 10:42:11	btc updown 15m 1772793000	Up	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x18144c…
03-06 10:40:57	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	722	57¢	$412	0x8887a9…
03-03 00:13:51	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	722	24¢	$173	0x711a33…
03-02 23:39:11	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	459	2¢	$10	0x2243b6…
03-02 23:34:15	will nvda dip to 116 in march	Yes	BUY	427	2¢	$10	0x3cc0cb…
03-02 23:31:31	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	445	2¢	$10	0x800213…
03-02 23:19:47	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	359	14¢	$50	0x1998db…
03-02 23:18:49	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	932	6¢	$60	0xf66b1c…
02-14 19:30:15	btc updown 5m 1771097400	Down	BUY	93	53¢	$50	0x23d643…
02-14 19:29:21	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xc63cc7…
02-14 19:28:59	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Down	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x709e8a…
02-14 19:28:53	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Down	SELL	29	20¢	$6	0xd30642…
02-14 19:27:49	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xe5c659…
02-14 19:26:49	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Up	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0xc6f54e…
02-14 19:26:47	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Up	SELL	91	55¢	$50	0x1ab957…
02-14 19:26:21	btc updown 5m 1771097100	Up	BUY	99	50¢	$49	0x2d241d…
02-14 19:23:47	btc updown 5m 1771096800	Up	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0x6c56b4…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x375e…b7b4	113	$571	296	03-07 02:23
(anonymous) 0x1979…7c9d	110	$486.5K	8,310	02-14 19:34
(anonymous) 0x1d00…0313	108	$214.7K	9,829	02-14 20:16
Growling-Upstairs 0x787b…a8a8	105	$1.05K	409	05-11 19:38
(anonymous) 0x7240…42f7	102	$4.64K	262	02-14 19:34
Worldly-Shackle 0x941e…1fbf	97	$1.10K	342	05-11 19:23
Dry-Solvency 0x5d3c…c298	95	$11.4K	1,731	05-11 19:39
(anonymous) 0x5487…a014	92	$52.2K	6,982	03-07 02:24