Knowing-Caviar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$14.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$135

Open exposure

$247

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-13 23:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

34% 0% $-4

Politics

33% — —

Sports

32% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alberta join the US?	No		-254	$-243	97¢	$-247	$-4	06-03 13:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$2.4K	1,250	1,250	+0	Yes	$-4	04-19 14:33
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$2.1K	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	04-18 23:41
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$2.1K	1,139	1,139	+0	open	—	04-16 04:49
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$859	1,290	1,290	+0	open	—	06-03 00:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$750	464	464	+0	open	—	05-26 10:19
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	5	$705	1,333	1,333	+0	open	—	04-18 02:08
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	19	$529	1,418	1,417	+1	open	—	06-10 13:06
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$512	656	656	+0	open	—	06-06 20:50
israel closes its airspace by june 8	3	$492	250	250	+0	open	—	06-08 18:39
Iran leadership change by June 30?	3	$488	253	253	+0	open	—	06-07 14:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$405	216	216	+0	open	—	06-02 15:44
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$381	198	198	+0	open	—	05-26 15:24
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	5	$343	591	591	+0	open	—	06-07 02:50
Will Alberta join the US?	4	$276	330	584	-254	open	—	06-05 09:36
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	5	$255	275	275	+0	open	—	04-24 21:56
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	1	$220	226	0	+226	open	—	06-13 11:45
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$217	942	942	+0	No	+$0	04-19 20:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$216	0	280	-280	open	—	06-13 23:52
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$143	79	79	+0	open	—	04-23 15:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$140	74	74	+0	open	—	05-16 22:29
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	2	$127	71	71	+0	open	—	04-25 09:47
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	1	$110	146	0	+146	open	—	06-12 15:57
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	3	$78	412	412	+0	open	—	06-12 12:50
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$40	0	295	-295	open	—	06-13 03:50
Netanyahu out by June 30?	4	$21	384	932	-548	open	—	06-13 10:39
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	2	$17	509	509	+0	open	—	06-03 21:10
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	3	$10	224	224	+0	open	—	06-04 01:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$8	300	265	+35	open	—	05-27 19:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 23:52:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	280	77¢	$216	0x19248b…
06-13 11:45:43	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	226	97¢	$220	0x58a604…
06-13 10:39:18	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	548	1¢	$7	0xd5e225…
06-13 03:50:49	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	41	14¢	$6	0x496044…
06-13 03:50:49	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	254	14¢	$35	0x146fa9…
06-12 15:57:13	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	146	75¢	$110	0xd27cb4…
06-12 12:50:04	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x620961…
06-12 12:50:04	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	404	9¢	$36	0x23e69c…
06-12 10:04:33	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	412	10¢	$41	0x5079f6…
06-11 01:56:04	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$4	0xfb5f01…
06-11 01:56:04	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	134	2¢	$2	0x83876c…
06-11 00:41:33	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	384	2¢	$7	0x85044b…
06-10 13:06:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x96839b…
06-10 13:06:43	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	203	97¢	$198	0x3ed125…
06-10 10:03:07	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	89	98¢	$87	0x5a7fa6…
06-10 10:03:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0xb57059…
06-10 10:03:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	137	98¢	$134	0x3b3050…
06-08 18:39:24	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0x5cd399…
06-08 18:39:06	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0xf803fb…
06-08 15:19:24	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	250	98¢	$244	0xb2b9a5…
06-07 22:27:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	137	2¢	$2	0x8c4e31…
06-07 22:27:04	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	2¢	$2	0xe1608f…
06-07 22:27:04	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	2¢	$0	0xc37143…
06-07 22:27:04	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	2¢	$2	0x7f2e0c…
06-07 22:27:04	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	2¢	$2	0x087eb1…
06-07 18:49:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	522	2¢	$8	0xd8f4fd…
06-07 14:01:33	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	106	96¢	$102	0xe8dba8…
06-07 14:01:33	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	147	96¢	$142	0x72d7bf…
06-07 12:50:00	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	253	96¢	$244	0xe6fc8b…
06-07 02:50:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	109	29¢	$32	0xc8c14a…
06-07 02:50:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	158	29¢	$46	0x886342…
06-07 02:50:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	206	29¢	$60	0x87d4e2…
06-07 02:50:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	118	29¢	$34	0x0407d5…
06-07 02:49:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	591	29¢	$171	0x4f2061…
06-06 20:50:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	174	39¢	$68	0x87d9df…
06-06 20:50:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	218	39¢	$85	0x2cb180…
06-06 20:50:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	264	39¢	$103	0x1c57ca…
06-06 19:45:18	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	656	39¢	$256	0xae87a9…
06-06 07:59:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0xeb129d…
06-06 07:59:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xbcd355…
06-06 07:59:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x8f6e03…
06-06 07:59:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x4c0daa…
06-06 07:59:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x29ead3…
06-06 07:20:39	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	2¢	$4	0x6bc02f…
06-06 05:19:54	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	261	2¢	$4	0x6cacdf…
06-06 05:08:21	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	643	1¢	$9	0x743ab4…
06-05 09:36:22	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	330	5¢	$17	0x3dd349…
06-05 05:22:51	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	330	5¢	$16	0x898d39…
06-04 01:13:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$2	0xa79b15…
06-04 01:13:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	153	2¢	$4	0x7ff9bc…
06-04 00:43:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	224	2¢	$5	0x6b594a…
06-03 21:10:18	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	509	2¢	$9	0xc0becf…
06-03 18:43:16	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	509	2¢	$9	0x3204c2…
06-03 13:57:04	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$191	0x74414d…
06-03 13:57:04	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	54	96¢	$52	0x0d4506…
06-03 00:02:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	184	26¢	$47	0xc039b1…
06-03 00:02:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	131	26¢	$34	0x7bcea3…
06-03 00:02:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	116	26¢	$30	0x5737ef…
06-03 00:02:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	182	26¢	$47	0x49d48a…
06-02 20:53:05	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	613	18¢	$113	0x58acc8…
06-02 15:44:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	216	94¢	$202	0x8fdcca…
06-02 10:54:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	52	94¢	$49	0xcde934…
06-02 10:54:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	164	94¢	$154	0x20725c…
06-02 02:09:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	392	20¢	$80	0x6e7aa9…
06-01 21:52:01	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	392	20¢	$78	0x7b53ac…
06-01 18:43:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	285	77¢	$220	0xb10ea4…
06-01 17:13:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	285	73¢	$209	0xff7515…
05-27 19:58:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	72	2¢	$1	0x8ed64f…
05-27 19:58:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	193	2¢	$3	0x4824b2…
05-27 18:17:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0x68738f…
05-26 15:24:32	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	83	96¢	$80	0x84bed7…
05-26 15:24:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	115	96¢	$110	0x34c633…
05-26 11:45:35	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	166	96¢	$160	0x7f3160…
05-26 11:45:35	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x0c9e6a…
05-26 10:19:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	278	76¢	$210	0xa48476…
05-26 08:26:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	278	76¢	$212	0xe0cc23…
05-25 19:51:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	186	89¢	$165	0x9e7fa4…
05-25 16:00:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	186	87¢	$163	0x7bdaf4…
05-16 22:29:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	74	94¢	$70	0x43a26b…
05-16 22:28:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	74	95¢	$70	0x603c1f…
04-25 09:47:54	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	SELL	71	90¢	$64	0x7d3363…
04-25 00:55:16	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	71	88¢	$62	0x4e53e5…
04-24 21:56:44	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	79	44¢	$35	0xac0805…
04-24 21:56:44	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	63	44¢	$28	0x9517c5…
04-24 19:53:50	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	142	45¢	$64	0xd2a0f9…
04-24 00:51:50	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	133	48¢	$64	0x0c2bce…
04-23 22:46:56	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	133	49¢	$65	0xac2d76…
04-23 15:06:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	79	90¢	$71	0xaffc4c…
04-23 15:05:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	79	90¢	$71	0x460fd9…
04-19 20:18:50	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	942	12¢	$108	0x54923b…
04-19 16:45:18	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	942	12¢	$108	0xe9882d…
04-19 14:33:54	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1,250	94¢	$1,178	0xf946ff…
04-19 10:24:24	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,250	94¢	$1,181	0x17af56…
04-18 23:41:24	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	838	99¢	$826	0x93a6cd…
04-18 23:41:24	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	252	98¢	$248	0x633cba…
04-18 20:40:16	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	1,090	99¢	$1,074	0x081640…
04-18 02:08:28	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	345	99¢	$341	0x857bd2…
04-17 22:54:54	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	244	99¢	$241	0xcf0e57…
04-17 22:54:54	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x053867…
04-17 11:36:58	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	988	1¢	$12	0x38a45f…