Ringed-Courage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.20K

Unrealized P&L

-$41

Hit rate

72.8%

Resolved

5,339

Trades

18,156

lifetime

Volume

$204.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$2.42K

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 10-23 18:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 198 days

Categories

Other

90% 68% -$2,037

Sports

8% 57% -$565

Politics

2% 69% +$1,517

Crypto

0% 68% -$116

Tech

0% 80% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 2379 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No		-2,558	-$2,379	94¢	$-2417	-$38	07-04 16:46
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No		+29	$3	0¢	$0	-$2	09-03 12:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
wta rakhimo william 2026 08 03	11	$9.1K	5,845	5,845	+0	Kamilla Rakhimova	+$58	08-02 14:41
Bonn: Elmer Moeller vs Jamie Mackenzie	2	$6.7K	9,569	0	+9,569	Jamie Mackenzie	-$6,724	07-29 07:02
atp svajd mensik 2026 07 27	2	$5.7K	7,052	0	+7,052	Jakub Mensik	+$1,340	07-28 20:53
wta kotliar ristic 2026 07 29	2	$4.7K	5,844	0	+5,844	Mia Ristic	+$1,109	07-30 07:31
wta jones paquet 2026 07 28	1	$4.5K	5,827	0	+5,827	Francesca Jones	+$1,340	07-27 16:57
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$3.3K	4,776	0	+4,776	England	+$1,481	07-11 21:59
wta pegula shnaide 2026 08 01	2	$3.1K	4,684	0	+4,684	Jessica Pegula	+$1,573	08-01 18:22
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	1	$2.5K	3,326	0	+3,326	Spain	+$831	07-10 19:28
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$2.4K	0	2,558	-2,558	open	—	07-04 16:46
atp shang rublev 2026 08 04	1	$2.1K	2,857	0	+2,857	Juncheng Shang	-$2,143	08-04 20:41
atp berrett navone 2026 08 03	2	$2.0K	1,562	1,562	+0	Mariano Navone	+$41	08-03 19:39
atp gombos feldbau 2026 07 31	2	$1.8K	2,323	0	+2,323	Norbert Gombos	-$1,850	07-31 10:30
wta quevedo monnet 2026 07 31	1	$1.7K	2,203	0	+2,203	Kaitlin Quevedo	+$529	07-31 07:17
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$1.3K	1,908	0	+1,908	Yes	+$608	04-10 00:28
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 4?	21	$1.3K	753	539	+214	No	+$13	10-04 03:17
atp jodar tabilo 2026 08 01	3	$1.2K	1,854	0	+1,854	Rafael Jodar	+$703	08-02 01:08
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$1.1K	2,087	0	+2,087	Yes	+$1,002	08-02 02:57
atp wong brooksb 2026 07 31	1	$1000	1,538	0	+1,538	Coleman Wong	+$538	07-31 03:26
atp norrie shapova 2026 08 01	1	$1000	1,266	0	+1,266	Denis Shapovalov	+$266	08-01 07:15
atp paul cobolli 2026 08 21	48	$997	2,043	0	+2,043	Flavio Cobolli	-$676	08-20 21:42
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	1	$974	1,380	0	+1,380	Argentina	+$407	07-04 00:19
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-08-19?	40	$847	1,388	0	+1,388	Yes	+$387	08-19 20:22
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	1	$787	1,093	0	+1,093	Max Holloway	+$306	07-12 03:31
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	12	$751	916	0	+916	Washington Nationals	+$106	08-27 19:20
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 20?	18	$731	382	382	+0	No	+$21	09-20 11:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 21?	58	$648	359	358	+1	No	+$62	09-21 06:37
atp fritz nakashi 2026 08 21	32	$632	1,188	0	+1,188	Brandon Nakashima	-$191	08-21 22:16
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 22?	44	$629	373	366	+7	No	+$103	09-22 16:52
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 24?	21	$616	323	320	+3	No	+$21	09-24 05:26
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics	41	$614	1,068	0	+1,068	Baltimore Orioles	+$81	08-29 04:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 18:02:00	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x7d53e7…
10-22 19:48:57	Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x41da04…
10-22 19:39:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election by 55%-60%?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x3b3a27…
10-22 19:21:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-27 House election by 15%-18%?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x9c0ac7…
10-22 19:20:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-21 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x0d46d2…
10-22 19:20:30	Will Ján Nosko win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election?	No	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x02c9da…
10-22 19:19:38	Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xf43271…
10-22 19:19:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-27 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xad4371…
10-22 19:18:23	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	SELL	4	59¢	$2	0xf50f75…
10-21 21:16:06	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	No	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x7c4bc2…
10-21 21:16:06	Will Raphinha (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x7570a7…
10-21 21:16:06	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x107864…
10-21 21:16:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xc6d811…
10-21 21:16:05	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x98c52f…
10-21 21:16:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xb88d38…
10-21 21:16:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 70%-75%?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xb82355…
10-21 21:16:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 55%-60%?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xa8c9da…
10-21 21:16:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 15%-25%?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x825785…
10-21 21:16:02	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x85b77b…
10-21 21:16:02	Will Republicans win the Iowa Governor election and Democrats win the Iowa Senate election?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1afb57…
10-21 21:16:00	Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xff7d59…
10-21 21:16:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 9%-12%?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x831a43…
10-21 21:15:59	Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb601ef…
10-21 21:15:59	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7b412e…
10-21 21:15:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x5deffb…
10-21 21:15:59	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x2dab37…
10-21 21:15:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xa2d9c3…
10-21 21:15:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 75%-80%?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x1b7144…
10-21 21:15:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd51f00…
10-21 21:15:56	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x84e2c9…
10-21 21:15:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 12% or more?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x80d380…
10-21 21:15:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xf9fd98…
10-21 21:15:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 80%-85%?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x666e5c…
10-21 21:15:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 9%-12%?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1a3f51…
10-21 21:15:53	Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdc16d4…
10-21 21:15:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcfe11f…
10-21 21:15:53	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x79b6a7…
10-21 21:15:51	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0xec55ff…
10-21 21:15:51	Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe6fbb7…
10-21 21:15:51	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0xc0cb3d…
10-21 21:15:50	Will Resident Evil Requiem win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe3f105…
10-21 21:15:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x7e0404…
10-21 21:15:50	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x786e9d…
10-21 21:15:48	Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xfd3e3a…
10-21 21:15:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 45%-50%?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0xe6c176…
10-21 21:15:48	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xe08493…
10-21 21:15:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xdf5893…
10-21 21:15:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-21 House election by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x84d2b4…
10-21 21:15:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$1	0xe8c6ae…
10-21 21:15:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0xc778d7…
10-21 21:15:45	Will Sonny Gray win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6613cd…
10-21 21:15:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0xe731bc…
10-21 21:15:44	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x8197fd…
10-21 21:15:44	Will Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x4f59aa…
10-21 21:15:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0xe561fd…
10-21 21:15:42	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0xdd4a85…
10-21 21:15:42	Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4e9766…
10-21 21:15:41	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x7da4de…
10-21 21:15:41	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-27 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x563aa7…
10-21 21:15:41	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 35%-40%?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0x2d04b3…
10-21 21:15:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 9%-12%?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0xdffc57…
10-21 21:15:39	Will Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xacb0a5…
10-21 21:15:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 55% or more?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xe25369…
10-21 21:15:38	Will Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0xa471ea…
10-21 21:15:38	Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x25888f…
10-21 21:15:36	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-21 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xf5676b…
10-21 21:15:36	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0xb59d72…
10-21 21:15:36	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0x6a8522…
10-21 21:15:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election by 45%-50%?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x997389…
10-21 21:15:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x351303…
10-21 21:15:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-21 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x1e8743…
10-21 21:15:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xfc39ae…
10-21 21:15:33	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-27 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x14962a…
10-21 21:15:32	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xfede4b…
10-21 21:15:30	Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xfa34c0…
10-21 21:15:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x907327…
10-21 21:15:29	Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x977649…
10-21 21:15:29	Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x0812e9…
10-21 21:15:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-21 House election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xfac484…
10-21 21:15:27	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x46dde0…
10-21 21:15:27	Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3670ae…
10-21 21:15:26	Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xfcb526…
10-21 21:15:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x895820…
10-21 21:15:26	Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7a9d76…
10-21 21:15:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NV-04 House election by 5% or more?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x8b0e3d…
10-21 21:15:24	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x5a7034…
10-21 21:15:23	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf34f0e…
10-21 21:15:23	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x8d38d6…
10-21 21:15:23	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x6714ed…
10-21 21:15:23	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x325403…
10-21 21:15:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election by 0%-20%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xaf34cb…
10-21 21:15:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election by 20%-30%?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x24320d…
10-21 21:15:20	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0xdecf8a…
10-21 21:15:20	Will Norway win the UEFA EURO 2028?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0xdd3fd5…
10-21 21:15:20	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x83d135…
10-21 21:15:20	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	No	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x4fda50…
10-21 21:15:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0x53e0d6…
10-21 21:15:18	Will Borussia Dortmund be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x53ae9c…
10-21 21:15:17	Will RB Leipzig be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xd1efc5…
10-21 21:15:17	Will Bayer Leverkusen be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xa228ed…