Fearful-Western — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

Trades

150

lifetime

Volume

$2.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-31 03:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

77% 93% -$11

Politics

13% 80% -$26

Tech

5% 100% +$1

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	2	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$1	04-01 05:05
will progressive bulgaria pb win between 80 84 seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	04-19 19:47
Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	05-18 15:14
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	2	$44	22	22	+0	Yes	+$0	03-30 21:49
highest temperature in tel aviv on march 18 2026 26c	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	03-18 07:51
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4?	2	$43	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	05-05 21:12
will mrbeasts next video get 84 million or more views on week 1	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	03-28 06:56
highest temperature in seoul on march 18 2026 9c	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	03-18 08:33
will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$0	04-14 03:50
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	05-08 16:00
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	06-10 13:01
will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 20	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	03-20 13:29
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	06-02 20:34
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$0	05-31 00:59
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	05-29 16:37
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt6	2	$36	18	18	+0	No	+$0	04-03 13:06
will something very bad is going to happen season 1 be the 2 us netflix show this week	2	$35	18	18	+0	Yes	+$1	04-07 19:00
Will "Unchosen" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$1	05-05 19:08
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	2	$35	18	18	+0	Yes	+$0	03-17 01:04
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	06-15 11:06
highest temperature in seoul on march 17 2026 8c	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	03-16 16:28
highest temperature in lucknow on march 17 2026 35c	2	$34	17	17	+0	Yes	+$0	03-17 12:00
will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	04-24 10:30
highest temperature in seoul on march 20 2026 12c	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	03-20 06:34
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$33	17	17	+0	Yes	+$0	05-12 02:47
ethereum above 1100 on july 5 2026	1	$33	33	0	+33	Yes	+$0	07-02 16:24
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day 5?	2	$32	16	16	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 13:41
will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 10	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-10 00:13
highest temperature in singapore on march 17 2026 30c	2	$24	12	12	+0	No	+$0	03-17 03:30
will mrbeasts next video get between 75 and 76 million views on day 5	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	-$24	03-25 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 03:19:16	Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xaa8e4e…
08-31 02:49:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x70367e…
07-04 22:04:40	will anyone say mustard 10 times during 2026 nathans hot dog eating contest 20260630153701048	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0xb98ae2…
07-02 16:24:05	ethereum above 1100 on july 5 2026	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x170298…
06-25 13:24:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x774743…
06-25 12:14:10	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x78ef54…
06-18 13:41:56	Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xcd7790…
06-18 08:30:35	Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xc10f0b…
06-15 11:06:24	Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x9aebad…
06-10 13:01:01	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc57ab3…
06-09 08:02:48	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x8baf56…
06-06 19:01:37	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xcac03e…
06-02 20:34:57	Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x75098c…
06-01 00:01:05	Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x367721…
05-31 00:59:33	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x1054df…
05-29 16:37:38	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x90f2fc…
05-29 11:19:13	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x0351ad…
05-25 05:48:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd3edd3…
05-19 06:55:10	Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf26544…
05-18 15:14:26	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x10b448…
05-17 18:42:54	Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x5c6735…
05-12 02:47:00	Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xd3acfc…
05-11 23:33:41	Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0xe8cb31…
05-08 16:00:14	Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7151aa…
05-07 23:15:27	Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x8a620c…
05-05 21:12:46	Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x539a45…
05-05 19:08:50	Will "Unchosen" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x4fa55f…
05-05 18:48:22	Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x71d9aa…
05-04 08:06:24	Will "Unchosen" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x253723…
04-29 18:47:16	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe16ac0…
04-27 18:27:54	Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xc5b5aa…
04-24 10:30:18	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x7db20e…
04-23 01:43:56	will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x9a9c02…
04-19 19:47:42	will progressive bulgaria pb win between 80 84 seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x954068…
04-18 09:47:42	will progressive bulgaria pb win between 80 84 seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x91db9d…
04-14 03:50:03	will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xcca5e9…
04-13 10:18:07	will jumanji welcome to the jungle be the top us netflix movie this week	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x1b5278…
04-10 00:13:43	will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 10	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7e58a5…
04-09 20:44:33	will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 10	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x68a859…
04-07 19:00:19	will something very bad is going to happen season 1 be the 2 us netflix show this week	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xc0c1d3…
04-06 21:03:25	will something very bad is going to happen season 1 be the 2 us netflix show this week	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x21781a…
04-03 13:06:03	will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt6	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x206775…
04-02 12:30:17	will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt6	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xbe2d36…
04-01 05:05:53	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xf1e6af…
03-30 21:49:17	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x9e3f61…
03-30 08:45:56	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xc2b014…
03-30 03:58:24	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xd3e78e…
03-30 00:01:52	will angus king vote yea on the department of homeland security appropriations act 2026 161	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x272583…
03-28 21:46:22	internet access restored in iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x15629b…
03-28 06:56:41	will mrbeasts next video get 84 million or more views on week 1	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xdfe43a…
03-27 20:07:11	will mrbeasts next video get 84 million or more views on week 1	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x678ba2…
03-25 19:36:37	will mrbeasts next video get between 75 and 76 million views on day 5	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xf68010…
03-20 13:29:37	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 20	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x689582…
03-20 06:34:21	highest temperature in seoul on march 20 2026 12c	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x98ba60…
03-20 05:39:43	highest temperature in seoul on march 20 2026 12c	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x3836de…
03-19 01:41:37	will claude by anthropic be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 20	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x812735…
03-18 16:26:43	highest temperature in milan on march 18 2026 15c	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf65a29…
03-18 08:33:57	highest temperature in seoul on march 18 2026 9c	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x718f45…
03-18 07:51:43	highest temperature in tel aviv on march 18 2026 26c	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x19bccb…
03-18 01:36:23	highest temperature in seoul on march 18 2026 9c	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x5c6b7a…
03-17 15:53:25	will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xcb60bf…
03-17 14:28:13	will 10 14 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x098094…
03-17 13:07:23	highest temperature in tel aviv on march 18 2026 26c	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xe991d6…
03-17 12:00:09	highest temperature in lucknow on march 17 2026 35c	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xf76996…
03-17 10:45:13	highest temperature in lucknow on march 17 2026 35c	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0x566765…
03-17 03:30:59	highest temperature in singapore on march 17 2026 30c	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xc5ed3c…
03-17 01:04:37	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xe111b8…
03-16 19:07:33	highest temperature in singapore on march 17 2026 30c	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xc96300…
03-16 16:28:17	highest temperature in seoul on march 17 2026 8c	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x0f2330…
03-16 12:03:33	highest temperature in seoul on march 17 2026 8c	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x1d93d8…
03-16 09:10:59	highest temperature in buenos aires on march 16 2026 30corhigher	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x5f0304…
03-16 06:10:41	will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 17	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xc88fde…
03-15 21:59:05	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x70d689…
03-15 18:25:05	will reminders of him score at least 60 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb74085…
03-15 00:00:51	will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xf3febe…
03-15 00:00:51	will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xcd2ab6…
03-15 00:00:51	will 10 14 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x6ecff6…
03-15 00:00:51	will reminders of him score at least 60 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x0a4331…
03-13 13:41:51	will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 13	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x99c1f4…
03-13 10:59:05	internet access restored in iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x12b57e…
03-12 18:56:33	will argentinas monthly inflation in february 2026 be between 2pt2 and 2pt4	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7c9da7…
03-12 12:58:33	will hotschedules be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on march 13	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x06ea61…
03-11 03:47:41	will argentinas monthly inflation in february 2026 be between 2pt2 and 2pt4	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x27fad0…
03-10 17:29:57	will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in february 876 736 952 866	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5d5127…
03-10 16:10:07	will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb134dd…
03-10 01:37:33	will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in february 876 736 952 866	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xdffb15…
03-09 10:20:59	will google gemini be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x822224…
03-09 06:55:49	will mrbeasts next video get between 38 and 42 million views on day 2	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8b4f46…
03-08 16:55:29	will mrbeasts next video get between 38 and 42 million views on day 2	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xcddcac…
03-07 21:09:25	will greczula win melodifestivalen 2026	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xddc774…
03-06 13:31:13	will the us add between 150k and 175k jobs in february	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x540175…
03-06 01:08:07	will greczula win melodifestivalen 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x315c85…
03-05 06:18:31	will the us add between 150k and 175k jobs in february	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x34c96a…
03-04 08:11:55	will jessica steinmann be the republican nominee for tx 08	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2967f5…
03-04 03:18:05	Will Donald May be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x55cd54…
03-02 21:42:07	Will Donald May be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x60e851…
03-02 07:45:09	will jessica steinmann be the republican nominee for tx 08	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x01283f…
03-02 07:25:27	highest temperature in atlanta on march 2 2026 64 65f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8bc857…
03-01 20:23:23	highest temperature in atlanta on march 2 2026 64 65f	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xfe093e…
03-01 14:31:15	highest temperature in chicago on march 1 2026 26 27f	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5287b4…