Thankful-Armor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$379

Unrealized P&L

-$132

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

1,267

Trades

5,633

lifetime

Volume

$410.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$73

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-13

last 10-16 01:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 163 days

Categories

Other

88% 96% +$300

Politics

8% 81% +$68

Tech

3% 80% +$84

Crypto

1% 70% -$100

Sports

1% 100% +$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+150	$135	2¢	$3	-$132	09-29 07:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$7.1K	4,152	4,152	+0	No	-$15	07-22 12:10
spy up or down on june 18 2026	10	$6.7K	3,850	3,850	+0	Up	+$894	06-18 19:32
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	2	$6.7K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	-$7	06-12 16:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$6.6K	5,500	5,500	+0	Yes	+$0	06-12 21:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$4.9K	3,328	3,328	+0	Yes	-$1	07-24 07:30
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?	2	$4.6K	4,000	4,000	+0	Down	-$242	05-22 09:35
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	10	$4.2K	2,537	2,537	+0	No	+$17	03-02 16:26
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	2	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$2	07-25 15:06
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?	2	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$8	05-20 07:31
spx up or down on june 5 2026	66	$3.6K	2,500	2,500	+0	Down	-$24	06-05 11:00
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	6	$2.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$20	03-17 16:43
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	20	$2.6K	1,699	1,418	+281	No	+$84	02-26 18:18
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12?	93	$2.5K	1,275	1,275	+0	No	+$11	05-12 14:34
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	5	$2.4K	2,535	2,535	+0	Up	-$40	05-05 07:25
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 12?	39	$2.3K	1,174	1,174	+0	No	+$3	05-12 14:27
will graham platner drop out by july 7	2	$2.2K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$178	07-07 06:27
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	12	$2.0K	1,436	1,436	+0	Yes	+$16	03-03 14:56
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	15	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$8	04-13 15:13
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	6	$1.8K	1,030	1,030	+0	Yes	+$10	04-10 09:26
spx opens up or down on march 31 2026	7	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Up	+$20	03-31 08:37
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 12?	15	$1.7K	845	845	+0	No	+$6	05-12 16:20
highest temperature in london on march 18 2026 13c	33	$1.6K	824	824	+0	No	+$8	03-17 19:03
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 21:11
highest temperature in paris on march 17 2026 13c	38	$1.5K	735	735	+0	No	+$4	03-16 23:34
highest temperature in munich on march 28 2026 12c	18	$1.4K	734	734	+0	No	+$15	03-27 22:45
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 28?	11	$1.4K	1,306	1,304	+2	Down	+$7	04-28 09:26
highest temperature in london on march 12 2026 10c	6	$1.3K	662	662	+0	No	+$2	03-12 10:03
highest temperature in nyc on march 31 2026 74forhigher	12	$1.3K	663	663	+0	Yes	+$5	03-31 08:55
will uk strike iran by march 31	8	$1.3K	780	780	+0	No	+$5	03-01 16:55
spx up or down on july 2 2026	16	$1.2K	852	752	+100	Up	+$328	07-02 21:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 01:11:24	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	SELL	516	80¢	$413	0x6e35e8…
10-16 01:11:22	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xdf7686…
10-15 20:10:29	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	192	69¢	$132	0xfd74f9…
10-15 19:49:53	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x95f42c…
10-15 19:49:53	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x902505…
10-15 19:49:53	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x609c31…
10-15 19:49:52	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x9ea618…
10-15 19:49:50	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xe30816…
10-15 19:49:50	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xa8dc32…
10-15 19:49:50	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x1ce91b…
10-15 19:48:59	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	500	70¢	$350	0x7fe966…
09-29 07:53:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x121470…
09-29 07:50:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0xac495d…
09-29 07:47:23	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in september 2026 from september 18	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0x04c168…
09-29 07:46:54	will bitcoin dip to 75k in september 2026 from september 16	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x9b59c6…
09-29 07:42:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on September 30?	No	BUY	230	100¢	$229	0x284c52…
09-29 07:42:30	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 30?	No	BUY	283	99¢	$280	0x654a5d…
08-14 17:17:21	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 15?	No	BUY	267	98¢	$261	0x43f274…
08-14 17:16:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 15?	No	BUY	165	99¢	$163	0x4fdc75…
08-14 17:15:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 15?	No	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0xee3a15…
08-14 17:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?	No	BUY	190	99¢	$188	0x7a7e40…
08-14 17:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0x41ba83…
08-14 17:14:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 15?	No	BUY	293	98¢	$287	0xd64f28…
08-14 17:14:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on August 15?	No	BUY	195	98¢	$192	0x7dcc2b…
08-14 17:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 15?	No	BUY	72	96¢	$69	0xef88b8…
08-14 17:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x26f1ba…
08-14 17:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x72a55f…
08-14 17:11:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 14?	No	SELL	149	100¢	$149	0x9acc8b…
08-14 17:11:34	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 14?	No	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x40190c…
08-14 17:11:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 14?	No	SELL	272	100¢	$271	0x6cf7a9…
08-14 17:11:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 14?	No	SELL	271	100¢	$271	0x9d2968…
08-14 17:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 14?	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x68c0ee…
08-13 16:46:57	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x0813cd…
08-13 16:46:18	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 14?	No	BUY	149	98¢	$146	0x9b6b27…
08-13 16:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 14?	No	BUY	190	97¢	$185	0xaecf3b…
08-13 16:44:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 14?	No	BUY	272	97¢	$263	0x116ec1…
08-13 16:44:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 14?	No	BUY	271	99¢	$268	0x488450…
08-13 16:43:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 14?	No	BUY	101	97¢	$98	0x668630…
08-10 13:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 11?	No	BUY	232	99¢	$230	0x50a52f…
08-10 13:06:40	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	145	98¢	$142	0xca698d…
08-10 13:06:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 11?	No	BUY	127	97¢	$123	0x7d32d9…
08-10 13:04:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 11?	No	BUY	168	99¢	$166	0xbabd33…
08-10 13:04:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 11?	No	BUY	133	97¢	$129	0xb51966…
08-07 15:07:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 7?	No	SELL	182	100¢	$182	0x0ce2cb…
08-07 14:49:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 7?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x079a9d…
08-07 14:48:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 7?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x98566e…
08-07 14:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 7?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xf4ef4d…
08-07 14:05:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x90836d…
08-07 13:55:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xecc02f…
08-07 13:53:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x883dd2…
08-07 13:53:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x30b802…
08-07 13:52:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x86992c…
08-07 13:52:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x787d9a…
08-07 13:50:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xdcb1ad…
08-07 13:50:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6be0cc…
08-07 13:50:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x082e2a…
08-07 13:50:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x01bec6…
08-07 13:47:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x65349c…
08-07 13:25:21	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 7?	No	SELL	252	100¢	$251	0x286dd4…
08-07 13:00:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x87a10d…
08-07 12:59:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xeeb6c1…
08-07 12:54:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa3a09e…
08-07 11:54:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xae403a…
08-07 11:54:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0xea9d65…
08-07 11:54:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9e8fdf…
08-07 11:50:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd5b2e4…
08-07 11:50:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x57bd06…
08-07 11:50:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x36c3c8…
08-07 11:50:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0ca313…
08-07 11:49:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x8e9284…
08-07 11:49:55	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x0e92a7…
08-07 11:47:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x849136…
08-07 11:33:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x309382…
08-07 11:27:57	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 8?	No	BUY	274	98¢	$269	0xbaa518…
08-07 11:27:01	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 8?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x20f2fd…
08-07 11:25:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 8?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x2757a4…
08-07 11:25:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	85	97¢	$83	0xdf537f…
08-07 11:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 8?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x3f20b7…
08-07 11:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 7?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x2d06cc…
08-07 11:23:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 7?	No	SELL	176	100¢	$176	0xab5b39…
08-07 11:22:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?	No	SELL	158	100¢	$158	0x848d00…
08-07 11:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 7?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xc20d37…
08-07 11:21:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 7?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x2c0f1d…
08-07 11:12:28	spy up or down on august 7 2026	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x005020…
08-07 11:12:22	spx up or down on august 7 2026	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x28d84a…
08-06 19:23:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 6?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xb7f35b…
08-06 19:23:50	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or below on August 6?	No	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x32dffd…
08-06 19:23:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 6?	No	SELL	241	100¢	$241	0x7bc304…
08-06 19:23:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 6?	No	SELL	211	100¢	$211	0xbde3a2…
08-06 19:23:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 6?	No	SELL	261	100¢	$261	0x1ff44f…
08-06 19:23:05	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 6?	No	SELL	184	100¢	$184	0x128506…
08-06 08:35:51	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	1,316	69¢	$908	0xbf8f68…
08-06 07:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 7?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2e9f4a…
08-06 07:57:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 7?	No	BUY	176	99¢	$174	0xf30251…
08-06 07:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 7?	No	BUY	255	96¢	$245	0x386838…
08-06 07:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 7?	No	BUY	252	99¢	$249	0x13c23f…
08-06 07:55:05	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?	No	BUY	182	99¢	$180	0x339852…
08-06 07:54:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?	No	BUY	182	99¢	$180	0x55247c…
08-06 07:53:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 7?	No	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0x4ef40b…
08-06 07:53:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 7?	No	BUY	123	99¢	$122	0xab4724…