Frivolous-Conservative — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.0%

Resolved

114

Trades

263

lifetime

Volume

$1.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 06-29 02:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

94% 58% +$6

Tech

3% 100% +$1

Politics

3% 100% +$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-29).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-23 21:06
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	05-27 02:41
Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	+$0	05-11 03:19
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?	2	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	05-12 16:00
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-13 04:26
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	2	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	05-30 20:11
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	06-25 12:54
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	06-05 13:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-22 00:35
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-21 05:24
Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-29 02:45
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-07 20:44
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	05-31 13:21
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	06-10 12:30
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?	5	$15	45	0	+45	No	$0	06-04 05:09
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-30 14:18
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 10?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-10 02:50
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 30?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-29 20:29
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 9?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-08 16:49
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-12 10:39
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 7?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-07 01:31
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-24 02:56
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 31?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-31 16:54
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-06 08:05
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-16 05:53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 7?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	05-06 15:45
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 1?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-01 06:18
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 10?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-09 13:34
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-20 00:59
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7?	3	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-07 04:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 02:45:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x9f116a…
06-29 02:45:10	Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x863a61…
06-29 02:32:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x95ae31…
06-29 00:31:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 29?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xa9cd63…
06-28 14:49:19	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf2076d…
06-28 12:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5f1f8a…
06-27 22:52:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x10cab1…
06-27 22:34:44	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x74f8e8…
06-27 02:07:35	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9f0990…
06-27 02:07:31	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xd5c2fa…
06-27 02:07:29	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x938bfe…
06-26 21:40:44	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x1c22b3…
06-25 21:43:53	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xd2b2d5…
06-25 21:43:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xe7180b…
06-25 21:36:40	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x39c188…
06-25 12:54:23	Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd29ae2…
06-25 03:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x4050eb…
06-25 01:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 25?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xd4e25b…
06-24 02:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xb8ce35…
06-24 02:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x6339f7…
06-24 02:30:23	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xcb7cbb…
06-23 21:06:22	Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xa33555…
06-22 13:51:28	Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x91370d…
06-21 06:56:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd2ee18…
06-21 06:50:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa670a6…
06-21 05:24:08	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x69181b…
06-20 00:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x64fd3e…
06-20 00:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x2f95b3…
06-20 00:22:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x698512…
06-18 05:57:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x12a242…
06-18 05:54:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x573192…
06-18 05:16:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xcdd246…
06-16 05:53:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?	No	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x29c807…
06-16 05:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x9dc02a…
06-16 05:36:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc61cc2…
06-15 07:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd7e8ae…
06-15 06:43:40	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe0a858…
06-15 06:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x1bdaaf…
06-14 06:18:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14?	No	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x28ab56…
06-14 06:06:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xae6bb6…
06-13 06:39:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?	No	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x2309f0…
06-13 06:24:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xd2a9f3…
06-12 15:28:12	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x3a7f74…
06-12 12:01:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x229c8c…
06-11 18:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x3cb349…
06-11 18:02:01	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xb1af4b…
06-11 17:49:43	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2a09e5…
06-11 04:33:18	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x0bd60c…
06-11 02:12:43	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xb0534e…
06-10 12:30:15	Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xfc3191…
06-09 08:26:19	Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x849390…
06-08 13:40:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xba4a03…
06-08 13:05:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 9?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xee157c…
06-08 08:54:06	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xace19c…
06-07 18:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x8de516…
06-07 04:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7?	No	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x212922…
06-07 04:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x2015a3…
06-07 04:42:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xbb7ca7…
06-06 09:17:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June 6?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x469d99…
06-06 08:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6?	No	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xefa17f…
06-06 07:52:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe38c72…
06-05 13:49:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June 6?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd62cf7…
06-05 13:10:25	Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9d47c6…
06-05 04:00:06	Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xfd515b…
06-04 05:09:58	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x86820a…
06-04 04:40:40	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xd1ae96…
06-03 21:21:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x8829d3…
06-03 21:20:58	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xf49efd…
06-03 13:38:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 4?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xf06913…
06-02 16:53:43	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x238823…
06-02 13:03:35	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 3?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x884a0e…
06-02 07:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x2916ae…
06-02 06:29:43	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xc30e7f…
06-01 15:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xba0e55…
06-01 12:19:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xa05095…
06-01 00:29:19	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x933b33…
05-31 23:06:40	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x725325…
05-31 16:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x48769e…
05-31 13:21:02	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x542dc1…
05-31 08:41:44	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 31?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xb3bee3…
05-31 01:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x13b4e4…
05-30 20:11:28	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xf3824e…
05-30 17:11:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x5e5be2…
05-30 08:14:18	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xeeeee2…
05-29 22:20:10	Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x953ad4…
05-29 20:29:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x37eb23…
05-29 20:28:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x505e19…
05-29 20:28:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb98cd4…
05-29 07:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 30?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x7acabd…
05-28 19:19:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x1f7f00…
05-28 17:03:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x0943b4…
05-28 07:36:17	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?	No	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x9f7cea…
05-28 07:30:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x6c8496…
05-28 00:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 28?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xb1f52f…
05-27 13:53:20	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x9877a1…
05-27 05:22:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x39bd57…
05-27 05:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 27?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x489186…
05-27 05:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 27?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xa08bbb…
05-27 05:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 27?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8ba19a…
05-27 04:20:28	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 27?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x257933…