Substantial-Reply — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$617

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

3,206

Trades

4,805

lifetime

Volume

$47.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-21 10:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Crypto

80% 85% -$435

Politics

19% 50% -$43

Other

1% 0% -$141

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	8	$1.4K	820	820	+0	Yes	+$120	02-28 21:40
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?	2	$997	511	511	+0	Yes	+$10	02-28 07:09
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$974	514	514	+0	Yes	+$13	02-28 06:51
will iran strike saudi arabia in march	3	$814	421	421	+0	Yes	+$14	03-03 09:12
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	6	$660	379	379	+0	Yes	+$60	02-28 06:40
will qatar strike iran by march 31	2	$452	262	262	+0	No	-$50	03-03 16:22
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	4	$351	1,076	865	+211	No	-$37	07-02 18:12
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	2	$342	239	239	+0	Yes	+$136	04-14 21:11
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	2	$275	145	145	+0	Yes	+$10	04-06 20:21
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	3	$239	140	140	+0	Yes	-$13	04-07 22:41
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	3	$209	111	111	+0	Yes	+$9	04-05 12:28
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$207	116	116	+0	Yes	+$7	03-03 21:01
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	4	$204	117	117	+0	Yes	+$6	02-28 19:32
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	2	$202	103	103	+0	Yes	+$4	04-13 16:31
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	8	$201	384	384	+0	open	—	10-09 20:21
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	4	$189	118	118	+0	Yes	+$5	02-28 06:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	3	$170	779	779	+0	No	-$80	03-09 22:12
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	4	$166	794	385	+409	No	-$124	03-09 22:16
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$142	150	150	+0	Yes	+$8	03-01 22:26
will iran strike cyprus in march	2	$120	172	172	+0	No	-$20	03-03 09:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 19:00 UTC	1	$119	120	0	+120	Down	+$1	02-25 19:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 18:35 UTC	1	$118	119	0	+119	Up	+$1	02-25 18:38
will bahrain strike iran by march 31	6	$108	201	126	+75	No	-$12	03-07 14:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 13:25 UTC	1	$99	100	0	+100	Down	+$1	02-16 13:28
will iran strike israel on march 7	4	$95	118	118	+0	Yes	+$19	03-07 09:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 17:25 UTC	2	$89	46	46	+0	Down	+$1	02-27 17:29
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	2	$82	125	125	+0	No	-$58	03-05 19:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 16:45 UTC	4	$79	81	0	+81	Up	+$2	02-25 16:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-09 14:45 UTC	18	$78	77	72	+5	Up	-$12	01-09 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 16:45 UTC	21	$71	195	0	+195	Down	-$71	03-01 16:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 10:49:57	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0x69a143…
10-19 07:10:42	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	SELL	97	14¢	$14	0x759ded…
10-18 10:13:44	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	194	10¢	$20	0x425aaf…
10-18 10:12:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	138	14¢	$19	0xc6fcc5…
10-09 20:22:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	138	16¢	$22	0x18e06c…
10-09 20:21:43	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	384	7¢	$27	0xd879c8…
07-23 16:52:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x67b4c6…
07-23 16:52:06	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	8¢	$9	0x607574…
07-23 16:51:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x3958dc…
07-23 09:30:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x1f05fb…
07-23 09:29:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xf28207…
07-21 08:00:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x64b0fc…
07-21 07:45:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xd8147e…
07-21 07:15:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xb81464…
07-21 07:15:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 07:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x018664…
07-21 06:45:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 06:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x7f60fd…
07-21 05:45:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xfd40c4…
07-21 05:45:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x18724e…
07-21 05:15:06	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xe2a388…
07-21 04:48:36	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x9d0938…
07-21 04:48:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0xf17f13…
07-21 03:45:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xd723be…
07-21 03:40:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1d4a5c…
07-21 03:35:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	56¢	$5	0xe658f4…
07-21 03:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xba658b…
07-21 03:30:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x8836fe…
07-21 03:25:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf24246…
07-21 03:20:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc8a9c9…
07-21 03:15:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x3bcfdf…
07-21 02:55:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 02:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8f9b3a…
07-21 01:05:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x733368…
07-21 01:00:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd52892…
07-21 00:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3cc25b…
07-21 00:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xdb3332…
07-21 00:45:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd29b46…
07-21 00:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x8a7222…
07-20 23:30:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x60f9d4…
07-20 22:35:04	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 22:35 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7a1cf7…
07-20 22:30:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa5fa2a…
07-20 22:20:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb02aae…
07-20 22:20:04	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1b8e74…
07-20 21:05:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xc0ae62…
07-20 20:55:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb1f62f…
07-20 19:15:07	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x57e708…
07-20 18:15:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xe21d06…
07-20 18:15:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x1a9ee4…
07-20 18:00:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x887581…
07-20 18:00:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x8cd277…
07-20 16:15:07	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xa974c2…
07-20 16:15:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x38a613…
07-20 16:15:06	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x58e9c1…
07-20 16:00:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x0f4bf1…
07-20 16:00:07	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xdfe84d…
07-20 16:00:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6e7565…
07-20 16:00:07	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x14b69c…
07-20 15:55:07	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x54eb05…
07-20 15:55:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x168cf5…
07-20 15:50:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc0fbc2…
07-20 15:50:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x0c78c3…
07-20 15:45:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xfdc809…
07-20 15:45:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xba6f1c…
07-20 15:45:07	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x29ad5f…
07-20 15:45:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x04c1f9…
07-20 15:30:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xd87f03…
07-20 15:30:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x30cd68…
07-20 15:25:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x3d851f…
07-20 15:15:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x79a9c5…
07-20 15:15:06	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xe2a951…
07-20 15:10:06	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4f6c40…
07-20 14:20:06	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb25dde…
07-20 14:15:07	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa0680d…
07-20 14:00:07	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf92033…
07-20 14:00:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x905e82…
07-20 12:00:07	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x8e9da1…
07-20 12:00:07	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x3bd084…
07-20 12:00:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xc57292…
07-20 12:00:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb8e33e…
07-20 11:55:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3f9d13…
07-20 11:55:06	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x12c02c…
07-20 11:50:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc75424…
07-20 11:50:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xa8626d…
07-20 11:45:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x6c25fd…
07-20 11:45:06	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xf02926…
07-20 11:45:06	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x7fb03b…
07-20 11:40:06	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xccb763…
07-20 11:15:07	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xed68fe…
07-20 11:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6a461e…
07-20 11:15:06	Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4bda1d…
07-20 11:10:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x374bc0…
07-20 10:45:06	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd54fcc…
07-20 10:45:06	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xcfd052…
07-20 10:30:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd11c0b…
07-20 10:30:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x1a5aea…
07-20 10:25:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x723d40…
07-20 09:55:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xd4cda7…
07-20 09:45:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xe35e42…
07-20 07:45:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 07:45 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x24ad39…
07-20 07:15:06	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xca2542…
07-20 07:00:07	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x74f855…
07-20 06:50:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 06:50 UTC	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x19f0b4…