Indolent-Coconut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$59

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

53.8%

Resolved

132

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$784

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$74

7 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 11-06 00:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

63% 57% -$13

Crypto

27% 40% -$48

Politics

8% 33% +$3

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	-44	-$42	98¢	$-43	-$1	07-30 14:19
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	-10	-$9	97¢	$-10	$0	07-30 14:19
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+6	$5	82¢	$5	+$0	11-05 18:34
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+6	$5	88¢	$5	+$0	11-06 00:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	+9	$5	58¢	$5	+$0	11-05 16:24
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	+22	$5	23¢	$5	$0	11-05 22:25
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+9	$4	2¢	$0	-$4	08-21 13:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$42	0	44	-44	open	—	07-30 14:19
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 28?	2	$26	16	16	+0	No	+$6	08-28 15:03
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	3	$18	31	31	+0	open	—	10-30 06:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$17	62	60	+2	No	+$7	07-08 20:02
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	7	$17	38	37	+0	No	+$7	07-23 15:54
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	2	$16	31	0	+31	No	+$15	08-12 16:20
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	6	$15	25	24	+1	No	+$6	07-13 23:56
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	4	$14	20	18	+2	Yes	-$2	08-04 01:05
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	7	$14	14	12	+1	No	+$3	08-15 05:10
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	2	$13	14	12	+2	Yes	+$5	11-04 00:19
will micron q3 dram revenue be above 29b	2	$13	42	19	+22	Yes	+$3	06-19 19:15
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 4?	1	$10	25	0	+25	Yes	-$10	09-03 04:10
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 11?	1	$10	18	0	+18	Yes	-$10	09-10 13:44
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 11?	1	$10	25	0	+25	Yes	-$10	09-10 20:57
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 31?	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	-$10	08-30 04:49
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 31?	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	-$10	08-30 14:04
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	1	$10	13	0	+13	No	-$10	08-24 17:46
will wti dip to 80 in august 2026 from august 26	1	$10	20	0	+20	No	-$10	08-27 10:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 24 2026?	1	$10	21	0	+21	Yes	+$11	08-25 14:21
Will Datadog (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	04-30 04:10
Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	04-30 04:10
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	2	$10	7	7	+0	No	$0	10-24 12:19
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	11-05 10:15
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	2	$10	9	9	+0	Yes	$0	10-28 16:20
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	1	$9	0	10	-10	open	—	07-30 14:19
will jp morgan jpm q2 investment banking fees be above 3pt0b	3	$9	17	7	+10	Yes	-$1	07-09 12:54
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 22%-24%?	1	$8	16	0	+16	Yes	-$8	07-22 13:09
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	2	$8	17	0	+17	Yes	+$9	08-21 15:29
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?	1	$8	13	0	+13	No	+$5	08-09 21:11
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	2	$8	9	9	+0	open	—	11-04 00:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 00:26:01	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x61fedd…
11-05 22:25:42	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x01cb35…
11-05 18:34:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xe0b2f9…
11-05 16:24:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xad0e7a…
11-05 10:15:46	Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x0b53c5…
11-05 02:35:22	Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x483024…
11-04 00:19:48	Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xf7448b…
11-04 00:19:48	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0x8c1f1d…
11-04 00:19:46	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x9133cd…
11-02 06:19:37	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xfc218c…
11-02 06:19:37	Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xa8fdad…
11-01 18:17:37	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7e819a…
10-30 06:20:16	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	27¢	$8	0x0a8b56…
10-29 10:20:02	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x0e4181…
10-29 04:16:43	Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x15894f…
10-28 16:20:53	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xd0014d…
10-28 14:26:46	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x60029a…
10-24 12:19:23	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x2e03be…
10-24 06:44:00	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x099309…
09-10 20:57:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 11?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x041fb4…
09-10 13:44:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 11?	No	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x0f30e9…
09-03 04:10:58	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 4?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x593eb6…
08-30 14:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 31?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe8d9d8…
08-30 04:49:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 31?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xdd3447…
08-28 15:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 28?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xced5e4…
08-27 16:32:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 28?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x847388…
08-27 10:25:52	will wti dip to 80 in august 2026 from august 26	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x45f935…
08-25 14:21:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb411c6…
08-24 17:46:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x974975…
08-23 16:05:16	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc2b17e…
08-22 05:09:37	lula participates in debate before first round	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x8cd901…
08-21 15:29:43	Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x0a714a…
08-21 15:29:37	Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x85b902…
08-21 13:08:36	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0xe71906…
08-20 01:30:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf8619c…
08-19 23:37:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 23:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xb65ecc…
08-19 22:22:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 22:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x918686…
08-19 21:52:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x285ec2…
08-19 21:27:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x746a29…
08-19 19:49:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x1020e7…
08-19 19:37:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xe3c833…
08-19 19:15:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xf607e5…
08-19 18:12:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0x7d0918…
08-19 17:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xe24131…
08-19 15:19:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x3e7ea9…
08-19 13:17:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x5a4f29…
08-19 12:24:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x982ff5…
08-19 06:07:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 06:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb3b423…
08-19 03:54:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 03:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x2397c2…
08-19 02:47:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9bbdd1…
08-18 05:12:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xe53443…
08-18 00:12:48	Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xb5df7a…
08-18 00:12:46	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xfca158…
08-17 21:15:21	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9e7985…
08-17 12:30:01	Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?	No	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0xa9ccca…
08-16 23:51:21	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xc03fb9…
08-16 08:05:18	Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x651bcd…
08-15 21:09:52	Will Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x27b731…
08-15 05:10:49	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x83ab8d…
08-15 05:08:57	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x84c9da…
08-15 05:08:03	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x49eb06…
08-15 05:06:28	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xcdcf82…
08-14 21:14:30	Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xcb498f…
08-13 13:06:15	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xcba649…
08-13 01:10:42	Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x641c5f…
08-13 01:10:37	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xdc5d43…
08-12 16:20:55	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xef915f…
08-12 16:20:52	Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xc72c1e…
08-12 04:04:18	Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x4486bc…
08-12 04:04:07	Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x559ea3…
08-10 01:12:51	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa1fbb5…
08-10 01:12:48	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xaff16b…
08-10 01:12:40	Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x586278…
08-10 01:12:36	Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x239345…
08-09 21:11:04	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0x11311a…
08-08 17:10:48	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0xc6c96a…
08-08 17:10:39	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x6f36c0…
08-08 08:05:22	Will Adrienn Laczó be the next President of Hungary?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x771844…
08-08 05:12:04	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xd553b4…
08-07 06:51:33	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x19d7df…
08-06 07:10:33	Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x576aa1…
08-06 05:06:59	will super typhoon dolphin hit japan 20260730150614391	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x3a8e8d…
08-05 13:10:18	Will Adrienn Laczó be the next President of Hungary?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x2c5244…
08-05 02:23:35	dkng quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 06 2026 0pt21	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xea85a4…
08-04 22:28:41	Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x31f4bf…
08-04 17:12:27	txrh quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 06 2026 1pt83	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x8c477e…
08-04 05:11:17	celh quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 06 2026 0pt39	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xa2e25b…
08-04 05:11:09	celh quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 06 2026 0pt39	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x90db94…
08-04 01:05:44	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x4a8b8a…
08-03 13:09:09	Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x55621e…
08-02 16:44:00	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x7ca650…
08-02 16:43:41	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xd84b8d…
08-02 16:27:30	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x04a214…
08-02 05:07:50	Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x715468…
08-02 02:37:59	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x2f5624…
07-31 14:10:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 14:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$4	0xbdf62f…
07-30 14:19:38	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x1adb26…
07-30 14:19:06	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	44	95¢	$42	0x960c29…
07-28 12:39:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x023c53…
07-28 12:34:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x0a3f42…