Other-Morphology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,368

lifetime

Volume

$1.65M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$491

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 08-13 15:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

54% 100% +$43

Other

46% 100% +$13

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	981	$427.7K	227,486	216,382	+11,105	open	—	03-03 16:07
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	418	$426.9K	222,214	210,428	+11,785	open	—	01-28 15:46
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	245	$94.9K	47,084	51,919	-4,835	open	—	01-22 03:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	106	$78.9K	39,553	49,000	-9,446	open	—	03-30 04:55
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	4	$36.8K	20,278	20,278	+0	open	—	01-29 16:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	47	$36.2K	26,846	14,067	+12,778	open	—	03-30 15:12
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	59	$34.1K	18,735	15,894	+2,840	open	—	01-31 14:09
Iran leadership change by April 30?	92	$33.0K	19,833	16,565	+3,268	open	—	04-17 14:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	8	$18.5K	9,292	9,292	+0	open	—	02-01 03:29
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$18.5K	9,273	9,273	+0	open	—	01-30 18:11
Iran leadership change by May 31?	17	$15.4K	10,343	6,513	+3,830	open	—	05-29 03:42
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	63	$15.3K	11,470	11,470	+0	open	—	03-31 16:45
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	16	$15.2K	7,907	7,907	+0	open	—	04-13 12:42
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	20	$15.0K	7,815	7,815	+0	open	—	04-11 15:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$14.1K	14,191	0	+14,191	open	—	03-01 15:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	25	$14.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-07 23:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	21	$12.5K	8,000	6,000	+2,000	open	—	04-24 16:26
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	7	$12.5K	8,000	5,000	+3,000	open	—	04-15 09:41
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	146	$11.9K	6,331	6,331	+0	Yes	+$13	03-12 10:44
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	38	$11.7K	5,635	6,720	-1,085	open	—	06-28 16:07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	72	$11.3K	7,684	7,184	+500	open	—	04-17 17:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	16	$10.5K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	06-01 09:17
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	13	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-06 10:43
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	23	$8.8K	5,000	4,053	+947	open	—	07-29 17:17
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	26	$8.4K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	07-21 02:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	8	$8.0K	4,300	4,300	+0	open	—	06-01 09:04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	14	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-11 15:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-07 18:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$7.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-28 10:14
Iran leadership change by March 13?	17	$7.0K	3,580	3,580	+0	open	—	03-16 18:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 15:28:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0x99a19c…
08-13 15:07:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	500	96¢	$482	0x262e02…
08-12 13:59:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0x39299e…
08-11 08:21:55	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0xe50c98…
08-11 06:47:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	424	89¢	$377	0x1e8d8d…
08-11 02:48:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x0e011a…
08-10 17:56:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x0bd6cb…
08-10 17:56:25	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	71	89¢	$63	0x5e1096…
08-10 11:02:34	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0x69e09f…
08-10 10:03:19	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0x7e6e98…
08-10 09:48:18	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0x9968a5…
08-10 09:34:49	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x6d52f5…
08-10 09:24:24	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xb1dd1d…
08-10 09:10:55	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	406	91¢	$369	0x75143c…
08-10 08:02:27	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	102	92¢	$94	0xa5c5f4…
08-10 07:55:40	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	225	92¢	$207	0xe38635…
08-10 07:45:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	351	92¢	$323	0x95ecf8…
08-10 07:45:30	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x8dfe46…
08-10 07:41:48	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	313	92¢	$288	0x618bbd…
08-10 05:28:31	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x21d151…
08-10 05:25:04	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xf61e54…
08-09 09:13:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$970	0xb3cf63…
08-08 13:43:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x5e564a…
08-08 11:48:24	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	714	92¢	$657	0x59aa35…
08-08 11:12:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0xf527fb…
08-08 10:48:01	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	86	92¢	$79	0xb51985…
08-08 10:44:24	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	450	92¢	$414	0x135ab2…
08-08 08:59:00	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	42	90¢	$38	0x54980d…
08-08 06:42:57	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x49046b…
08-08 02:37:07	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0xf0e625…
08-08 01:30:48	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	344	90¢	$310	0x0d56c9…
08-07 15:00:45	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	395	87¢	$343	0xc7d8c3…
08-07 15:00:45	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	800	87¢	$696	0x6b19fb…
08-07 14:54:22	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	26	90¢	$23	0xdd8df4…
08-07 14:52:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	92¢	$183	0x838c7f…
08-07 14:51:40	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x8924a2…
08-07 14:37:34	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739 824	No	SELL	35	87¢	$31	0x62a2ba…
08-07 14:26:12	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	974	90¢	$877	0x6d5f57…
08-07 14:10:16	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	SELL	816	94¢	$764	0x49bfb5…
08-07 14:10:15	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	SELL	184	94¢	$172	0x1d84b6…
08-07 01:51:01	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	2,500	94¢	$2,350	0x7e073d…
08-06 16:04:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x1604cc…
08-06 08:56:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xbad4c5…
08-05 18:29:17	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	398	90¢	$358	0x7eb89d…
08-05 18:06:20	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	92	90¢	$83	0xb54a8b…
08-05 15:59:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xb306e7…
08-05 15:48:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	55	55¢	$30	0x3f2592…
08-05 15:46:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x09b908…
08-05 09:44:38	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0x3c016e…
08-04 14:36:05	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xd95c6b…
08-04 14:24:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	155	45¢	$70	0x07c0d7…
08-04 14:10:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	200	46¢	$92	0x85bfe1…
08-04 14:01:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	52	48¢	$25	0xc5d3e7…
08-04 13:49:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	188	43¢	$81	0xff7b0d…
08-04 13:47:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	300	44¢	$132	0x3e831d…
08-04 13:46:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	272	52¢	$140	0xaf98b5…
08-04 13:46:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0x0fba02…
08-04 12:51:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0xebb4e4…
08-04 12:50:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	250	64¢	$159	0xca7f41…
08-03 20:25:57	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0xd0dca9…
08-03 18:29:03	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	870	92¢	$800	0xf462bc…
08-03 15:50:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	193	94¢	$181	0x1e116e…
08-03 14:59:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x8f8697…
08-03 11:34:05	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	190	82¢	$156	0x5bb481…
08-03 11:12:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	35	82¢	$28	0x6ef95e…
08-03 11:03:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0xbb4156…
08-03 11:02:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	204	82¢	$167	0xea91b0…
08-03 10:29:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	47	82¢	$38	0x18a027…
08-03 09:54:20	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	130	92¢	$120	0x84bfab…
08-03 06:51:59	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	240	90¢	$216	0x7156ac…
08-03 06:41:56	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	260	90¢	$234	0x247564…
08-02 05:47:15	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x54f264…
08-01 16:22:26	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$951	0x647150…
07-31 20:48:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x130045…
07-31 19:12:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$920	0x8095b7…
07-31 16:49:30	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xa03978…
07-30 19:21:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	164	93¢	$152	0x3a04df…
07-30 16:44:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x2afe99…
07-30 13:38:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xa5bfc0…
07-30 13:20:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x70407f…
07-30 09:47:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0x615455…
07-30 08:41:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$18	0x69a3b3…
07-30 08:41:03	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x1cdfb4…
07-30 08:04:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	575	93¢	$535	0xbb215c…
07-30 01:40:45	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	197	86¢	$169	0x0ecf70…
07-30 01:39:11	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	147	86¢	$127	0x9e7893…
07-29 22:01:24	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	92	86¢	$79	0x3f3311…
07-29 17:17:39	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	2,945	100¢	$2,930	0xb93bcc…
07-29 11:53:30	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x135410…
07-29 11:12:41	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x004c71…
07-29 10:23:05	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x074c1f…
07-29 10:22:08	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9aaadc…
07-29 10:22:06	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x28b11f…
07-29 10:04:29	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xef6d6d…
07-29 10:04:29	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbe02c1…
07-29 10:02:36	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x94e6cd…
07-29 09:50:39	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x461765…
07-29 09:50:32	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6aba76…
07-29 09:50:32	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x09f47a…
07-29 09:14:33	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9ce9f2…