Other-Morphology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56

Unrealized P&L

-$592

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,258

lifetime

Volume

$1.62M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$498

Open exposure

$518

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-23 17:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% 100% +$43

Other

46% 100% +$13

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+1,000	$860	52¢	$515	$-345	06-15 02:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+397	$250	1¢	$3	$-247	06-25 11:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	981	$427.7K	227,486	216,382	+11,105	open	—	03-03 16:07
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	418	$426.9K	222,214	210,428	+11,785	open	—	01-28 15:46
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	245	$94.9K	47,084	51,919	-4,835	open	—	01-22 03:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	106	$78.9K	39,553	49,000	-9,446	open	—	03-30 04:55
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	4	$36.8K	20,278	20,278	+0	open	—	01-29 16:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	47	$36.2K	26,846	14,067	+12,778	open	—	03-30 15:12
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	59	$34.1K	18,735	15,894	+2,840	open	—	01-31 14:09
Iran leadership change by April 30?	92	$33.0K	19,833	16,565	+3,268	open	—	04-17 14:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	8	$18.5K	9,292	9,292	+0	open	—	02-01 03:29
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$18.5K	9,273	9,273	+0	open	—	01-30 18:11
Iran leadership change by May 31?	17	$15.4K	10,343	6,513	+3,830	open	—	05-29 03:42
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	63	$15.3K	11,470	11,470	+0	open	—	03-31 16:45
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	16	$15.2K	7,907	7,907	+0	open	—	04-13 12:42
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	20	$15.0K	7,815	7,815	+0	open	—	04-11 15:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$14.1K	14,191	0	+14,191	open	—	03-01 15:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	25	$14.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-07 23:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	21	$12.5K	8,000	6,000	+2,000	open	—	04-24 16:26
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	7	$12.5K	8,000	5,000	+3,000	open	—	04-15 09:41
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	146	$11.9K	6,331	6,331	+0	Yes	+$13	03-12 10:44
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	38	$11.7K	5,635	6,720	-1,085	open	—	06-28 16:07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	72	$11.3K	7,684	7,184	+500	open	—	04-17 17:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	16	$10.5K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	06-01 09:17
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	13	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-06 10:43
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	26	$8.4K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	07-21 02:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	8	$8.0K	4,300	4,300	+0	open	—	06-01 09:04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	14	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-11 15:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	8	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-07 18:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$7.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-28 10:14
Iran leadership change by March 13?	17	$7.0K	3,580	3,580	+0	open	—	03-16 18:20
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	18	$7.0K	8,083	0	+8,083	open	—	03-08 07:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 17:46:52	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	250	69¢	$172	0x96ff7a…
07-22 18:21:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x9588dc…
07-21 21:33:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xaaba8a…
07-21 02:23:04	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	4,000	99¢	$3,976	0x62571c…
07-20 10:23:24	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	1,516	91¢	$1,379	0x08c545…
07-20 10:12:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	584	91¢	$532	0xbbbb80…
07-19 16:28:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa6dbce…
07-19 14:14:21	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xc99464…
07-19 12:28:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x4cb617…
07-19 10:52:13	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	548	94¢	$516	0x94dee3…
07-19 09:55:07	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	1,724	94¢	$1,624	0x8ee299…
07-19 09:30:40	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xf1c281…
07-19 09:26:01	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	500	94¢	$471	0x37bfff…
07-19 09:16:12	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	228	94¢	$215	0xc5f0ca…
07-18 10:38:12	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0x2d7ab8…
07-17 16:01:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	81	88¢	$71	0x99267c…
07-17 07:42:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x31d95f…
07-16 20:18:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	167	88¢	$147	0xf19bc2…
07-16 17:03:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	250	88¢	$220	0xb801b2…
07-16 16:17:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x72d168…
07-16 15:19:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	505	100¢	$503	0xb2f654…
07-16 15:16:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	975	100¢	$972	0x47024b…
07-16 15:14:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x9096ad…
07-16 14:36:05	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0x7d34a7…
07-16 10:29:56	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x69ab84…
07-16 10:26:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	727	89¢	$647	0x823cfe…
07-16 10:21:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	256	89¢	$228	0xbd5946…
07-16 09:49:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	518	96¢	$500	0x3c5158…
07-14 14:08:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	291	97¢	$281	0x1a975d…
07-14 13:24:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	328	97¢	$317	0x67d990…
07-14 11:32:35	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x525078…
07-14 11:32:35	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x33240e…
07-14 08:15:56	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0x19a812…
07-14 04:09:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x1f8dcc…
07-13 22:50:53	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	32	89¢	$28	0x1b86f5…
07-13 22:38:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x1c20de…
07-13 22:37:16	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	32	89¢	$28	0xbe4c0f…
07-13 22:36:56	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	192	89¢	$170	0x2cdb46…
07-13 19:38:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	850	93¢	$790	0xb2b644…
07-13 15:52:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	381	97¢	$368	0x5ea78d…
07-13 14:47:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x795972…
07-13 14:33:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	18	93¢	$16	0x76a0a0…
07-13 14:33:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x1a6041…
07-13 14:33:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xff7485…
07-13 14:33:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xfc022c…
07-13 14:33:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0xf6b26f…
07-13 14:31:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	595	73¢	$435	0x956a3f…
07-13 14:29:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	500	79¢	$395	0xc1d244…
07-13 14:21:23	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xe84c1c…
07-13 12:00:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	241	89¢	$216	0xef3cd3…
07-13 10:08:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	259	90¢	$232	0x2a0c9d…
07-13 09:41:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	595	84¢	$500	0xd4e19d…
07-12 10:17:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0xdd0f2e…
07-12 09:59:50	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x78e405…
07-12 05:26:26	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	237	98¢	$232	0x594f3d…
07-12 04:57:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	763	98¢	$745	0xf43f68…
07-12 04:16:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0xab9a42…
07-08 08:48:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	251	53¢	$133	0x968b3d…
07-08 08:44:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	SELL	1,869	78¢	$1,454	0xc310fa…
07-08 08:44:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x5cd9c9…
07-08 08:44:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0xa2777c…
07-08 08:43:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	500	89¢	$445	0x4e7f7a…
07-08 08:41:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	SELL	623	79¢	$492	0x1a3871…
07-08 08:21:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	205	57¢	$117	0x1475d4…
07-08 08:20:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xe03f3e…
07-08 08:20:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xd21d3c…
07-08 08:20:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xc22562…
07-08 08:20:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	25	57¢	$14	0xc1ed44…
07-08 08:20:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x8cc271…
07-08 08:20:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x091899…
07-08 08:20:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	16	57¢	$9	0x6059b5…
07-08 08:06:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	500	91¢	$455	0x2c90dd…
07-07 21:26:59	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,946	0xdd16dd…
07-07 21:04:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0xbd9c05…
07-04 13:21:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,400	100¢	$1,396	0x915ffa…
07-04 13:15:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	2,500	100¢	$2,498	0xd72178…
07-03 16:56:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	501	59¢	$296	0xacc2d9…
07-03 16:48:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,940	0x0f5167…
07-02 00:00:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x6701c9…
07-01 23:59:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	101	89¢	$90	0xce50a3…
07-01 23:26:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xe54490…
07-01 21:56:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1,884	89¢	$1,677	0x1b6465…
07-01 16:49:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	471	92¢	$433	0x030827…
07-01 16:49:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	529	92¢	$487	0xc35868…
07-01 14:58:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	417	90¢	$375	0xc8feae…
07-01 14:07:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x6709c1…
07-01 14:05:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	1	90¢	$0	0x8b0736…
07-01 14:05:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	52	90¢	$47	0x5a4e39…
07-01 09:48:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	48	47¢	$23	0xea30fb…
07-01 09:48:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	97	47¢	$46	0x8dec2b…
07-01 09:44:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	48	47¢	$22	0x0545d0…
07-01 09:43:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	21	47¢	$10	0xa6df99…
07-01 09:42:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0xc0fd4c…
07-01 09:41:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	26	47¢	$12	0xa00712…
07-01 09:40:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0x791322…
07-01 09:40:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	17	47¢	$8	0xc90f07…
07-01 09:40:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	18	47¢	$9	0xd3e3d0…
07-01 09:39:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$10	0x6255d7…
07-01 09:39:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$10	0xe5ada0…
07-01 09:39:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	25	47¢	$12	0xccb831…