Lumbering-Deviance — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

+$9.92K

Unrealized P&L

+$601

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

330

2,326 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$88.3K

$520.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$224

Open exposure

$14.9K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 11-04 18:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Politics

84% 65% +$8,547

Other

8% 57% +$1,709

Sports

7% 45% -$12,173

Tech

1% 100% +$377

Crypto

0% 0% -$192

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 413 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+15,040	$10,178	98¢	$14.7K	+$4,547	11-04 06:33
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	-200	-$114	52¢	$-105	+$9	11-04 18:39
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+1,836	$220	2¢	$35	-$185	05-06 15:08
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,320	$3,795	2¢	$26	-$3,769	11-04 06:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	99	$75.0K	40,331	40,331	+0	Yes	+$4,798	11-04 06:00
will iran strike israel on march 6	113	$46.6K	40,144	8,650	+31,494	No	+$2,137	03-12 00:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	34	$37.1K	28,897	13,700	+15,197	Yes	+$3,650	03-03 21:05
will iran strike israel on march 10	177	$32.0K	41,980	5,342	+36,638	Yes	-$10,221	03-12 22:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	81	$31.5K	42,699	12,282	+30,417	Yes	-$9,301	04-07 23:19
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	199	$23.2K	25,025	8,685	+16,340	Yes	+$8,859	03-08 22:07
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	151	$21.3K	15,604	14,284	+1,320	open	—	11-04 06:54
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	44	$20.4K	23,368	1,000	+22,368	Yes	+$3,934	11-04 03:33
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	28	$17.4K	17,300	7,300	+10,000	Yes	+$578	02-28 08:19
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	43	$13.7K	16,721	3,000	+13,721	Knicks	-$3,009	06-14 03:28
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	22	$12.4K	6,915	6,915	+0	Yes	+$1,017	03-11 02:48
will tit me pregunt be played first at the super bowl halftime show	53	$12.0K	38,919	0	+38,919	Yes	-$11,962	02-09 01:07
Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027?	20	$11.0K	11,612	0	+11,612	Yes	+$659	03-09 00:05
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	32	$10.3K	15,240	200	+15,040	open	—	11-04 06:33
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$30	02-28 07:08
will jeff bezos attend super bowl lx	10	$7.8K	9,123	0	+9,123	No	+$1,307	02-09 00:36
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$7.7K	7,006	2,000	+5,006	Yes	+$1,269	04-07 23:29
iran strike on israel by february 28	25	$7.6K	3,864	4,152	-287	Yes	-$89	02-28 19:53
will iran strike uae again in march	15	$6.6K	3,490	3,490	+0	Yes	+$365	04-07 22:03
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	31	$6.3K	6,644	1,456	+5,188	Yes	+$1,570	02-03 01:26
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	32	$5.4K	5,597	0	+5,597	No	+$200	03-08 22:02
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	59	$5.2K	4,332	2,164	+2,168	No	+$659	03-02 17:18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	19	$4.9K	8,034	432	+7,603	Yes	-$4,145	04-09 14:18
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	2	$4.0K	2,031	2,031	+0	No	+$61	02-08 23:23
jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	31	$4.0K	3,534	1,152	+2,382	No	+$374	02-15 22:01
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	43	$4.0K	4,571	0	+4,571	Yes	+$618	11-04 02:54
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	7	$3.8K	2,955	1,000	+1,955	Yes	+$129	02-28 08:11
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	13	$3.5K	1,912	1,912	+0	open	—	05-31 17:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$3.1K	9,965	1,000	+8,965	No	-$2,775	04-07 21:50
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	27	$3.0K	3,162	0	+3,162	Yes	+$131	03-08 22:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 18:39:31	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	200	57¢	$114	0xa323c2…
11-04 06:54:21	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	13¢	$51	0x277031…
11-04 06:53:51	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	15¢	$62	0x4c3daf…
11-04 06:53:46	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$76	0xc29d2c…
11-04 06:33:28	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	76¢	$755	0x597082…
11-04 06:10:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	70¢	$103	0xd30770…
11-04 06:10:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	70¢	$86	0x3938e1…
11-04 06:10:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x01d80e…
11-04 06:10:19	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	71¢	$103	0xb6935f…
11-04 06:00:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	14,831	100¢	$14,816	0x7eb192…
11-04 06:00:09	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$125	0x1e9f53…
11-04 05:59:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0xb9b8f1…
11-04 05:59:24	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x496698…
11-04 05:59:12	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$0	0x102591…
11-04 05:59:10	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	67¢	$133	0x6cd412…
11-04 05:59:04	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x764c3a…
11-04 05:58:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	458	29¢	$132	0x13afc9…
11-04 05:58:36	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	29¢	$15	0x6ada50…
11-04 05:58:36	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0x599e9e…
11-04 05:57:57	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	73¢	$158	0x6e52aa…
11-04 05:57:51	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,890	25¢	$1,224	0x93402e…
11-04 05:57:45	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	406	24¢	$99	0x5da21c…
11-04 05:57:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	75¢	$20	0xada2b4…
11-04 05:57:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x9793a1…
11-04 05:57:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x73e892…
11-04 05:57:36	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x018fed…
11-04 05:57:31	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,383	79¢	$1,099	0xb9cd72…
11-04 05:57:30	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xc28971…
11-04 05:57:30	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x684ccd…
11-04 05:57:30	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	726	79¢	$577	0x3bdd99…
11-04 05:57:27	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	25¢	$18	0xba4a1a…
11-04 05:57:27	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	71¢	$120	0x798096…
11-04 05:57:22	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	57¢	$229	0x2b15a1…
11-04 05:57:21	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	23¢	$27	0x347876…
11-04 05:55:58	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xbf3ef1…
11-04 05:55:58	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	36¢	$8	0x12ce55…
11-04 05:55:55	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xb30aa0…
11-04 05:55:55	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x5e892a…
11-04 05:55:55	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	449	36¢	$164	0x1151dd…
11-04 05:55:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	36¢	$27	0xf2b8ac…
11-04 05:55:54	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	36¢	$22	0x06c4b4…
11-04 05:55:52	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	63¢	$94	0x484832…
11-04 05:55:43	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	36¢	$32	0x10ece0…
11-04 05:55:39	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$3	0x10be12…
11-04 05:55:33	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0xbb8fad…
11-04 05:55:30	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	171	35¢	$60	0xc7a5cd…
11-04 05:55:22	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,494	65¢	$2,924	0x33870f…
11-04 05:55:15	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,151	64¢	$3,307	0xffc3bb…
11-04 05:54:42	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0xd2f2e5…
11-04 05:54:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	142	36¢	$51	0xb65b07…
11-04 05:54:31	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x8e5c37…
11-04 05:51:22	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$137	0xd1be4e…
11-04 05:50:09	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x311e51…
11-04 05:48:03	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xb469ba…
11-04 05:47:09	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x088f0f…
11-04 05:38:01	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0xfe8369…
11-04 05:38:01	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0x8a158d…
11-04 05:38:00	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	70¢	$48	0x196c62…
11-04 05:37:30	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0xdb42c3…
11-04 05:36:13	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x80386b…
11-04 05:35:00	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	76¢	$153	0xeae84b…
11-04 05:31:37	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xc04a16…
11-04 05:31:33	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	86¢	$21	0xbf4c3f…
11-04 05:31:33	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	86¢	$65	0x731ac8…
11-04 05:31:24	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	86¢	$63	0x5ab5e3…
11-04 05:31:21	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	86¢	$108	0x135439…
11-04 05:30:39	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	87¢	$93	0xc2196a…
11-04 05:30:39	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$173	0x4a0214…
11-04 05:30:24	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$18	0xac9cad…
11-04 05:30:24	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	87¢	$157	0xa6e428…
11-04 05:28:57	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	87¢	$167	0x2f3137…
11-04 05:28:21	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	87¢	$21	0x186a43…
11-04 05:28:06	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xbe984c…
11-04 05:28:06	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0xb28082…
11-04 05:28:06	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x794c22…
11-04 05:28:06	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0x63a0ba…
11-04 05:28:06	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	87¢	$105	0x557ec5…
11-04 05:28:06	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	87¢	$157	0x116e34…
11-04 05:26:16	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	88¢	$197	0xc09aa0…
11-04 05:26:16	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	88¢	$17	0xb5e979…
11-04 05:26:16	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	88¢	$151	0x5b3e86…
11-04 05:26:16	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	88¢	$153	0x2347d7…
11-04 05:26:12	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x1a3dc0…
11-04 05:25:31	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x71360d…
11-04 05:25:31	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	91¢	$124	0x568f9d…
11-04 05:25:30	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	91¢	$134	0xbf27a2…
11-04 05:25:25	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	92¢	$129	0x500869…
11-04 05:25:25	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x251f1b…
11-04 05:25:10	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0xd71cd4…
11-04 05:25:10	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x8d562f…
11-04 05:25:07	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0x34ed18…
11-04 05:24:57	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x8c3677…
11-04 05:19:18	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	97¢	$974	0xc976d8…
11-04 05:17:03	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	97¢	$966	0x15ec4b…
11-04 05:13:48	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x254701…
11-04 05:13:48	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	92¢	$73	0x1dead1…
11-04 05:13:39	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xd3036e…
11-04 05:12:46	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0xbd7cdd…
11-04 05:11:48	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$183	0xb7cf3f…
11-04 05:11:15	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	92¢	$28	0x3af08e…