Worrisome-Presence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$188

Unrealized P&L

+$23

Hit rate

51.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$190

Open exposure

$123

1 position

First seen

2026-03-14

last 07-04 16:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

79% 100% +$55

Other

18% 0% $-243

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes		+185	$100	66¢	$123	+$23	07-04 16:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$2.8K	1,544	1,544	+0	open	—	05-24 17:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$1.1K	744	744	+0	open	—	04-24 14:00
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$677	378	378	+0	open	—	04-29 15:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	3	$639	438	438	+0	open	—	05-23 15:21
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$527	299	299	+0	open	—	05-23 15:21
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$481	282	282	+0	open	—	04-29 15:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$444	253	253	+0	open	—	04-16 04:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$443	870	870	+0	open	—	04-20 17:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$439	261	261	+0	open	—	04-20 17:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	2	$390	386	386	+0	open	—	04-25 05:19
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$316	386	0	+386	open	—	04-19 17:37
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	1	$277	411	0	+411	open	—	04-20 18:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$255	157	157	+0	No	+$55	05-03 15:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$250	156	156	+0	open	—	05-11 14:17
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$244	152	152	+0	open	—	05-22 16:50
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	1	$243	371	0	+371	Yes	$-243	04-20 17:36
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$238	141	141	+0	open	—	05-22 16:47
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$232	132	132	+0	open	—	04-14 17:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$230	141	141	+0	open	—	06-20 15:39
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	2	$227	133	133	+0	open	—	07-01 13:08
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$225	127	127	+0	open	—	04-30 17:52
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	2	$221	125	125	+0	open	—	04-30 17:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$219	159	159	+0	open	—	05-23 15:25
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	2	$201	385	135	+250	open	—	06-08 14:09
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$200	277	0	+277	open	—	04-16 04:17
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	1	$200	269	0	+269	open	—	04-15 13:28
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	1	$200	265	0	+265	open	—	05-31 18:25
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	1	$200	256	0	+256	open	—	07-04 16:10
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	1	$200	253	0	+253	open	—	05-31 18:12
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	2	$180	138	138	+0	open	—	04-08 17:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 16:11:25	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x3e5b3c…
07-04 16:10:31	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xf5a4be…
07-04 16:10:10	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	Yes	BUY	256	78¢	$200	0x4a322f…
07-01 13:08:04	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	133	95¢	$127	0x545a21…
06-21 14:05:44	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	125	98¢	$123	0x63783c…
06-20 15:39:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	141	92¢	$130	0x2f336b…
06-20 15:39:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	136	95¢	$129	0x00d3d3…
06-17 16:23:14	fifwc ger civ 2026 06 20 spread home 1pt5	Germany	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x3d1112…
06-15 16:06:10	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	128	94¢	$120	0xf2149c…
06-11 18:08:40	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 2pt5	Spain	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xa6b680…
06-11 18:07:34	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 3pt5	Germany	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x710a7b…
06-08 14:09:39	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x9f903d…
06-08 14:04:42	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	135	75¢	$101	0xe1842f…
06-06 14:30:10	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	140	72¢	$100	0xfce116…
06-03 14:25:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xefbd5d…
05-31 18:37:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x25c389…
05-31 18:25:14	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	265	75¢	$200	0xb2c6e0…
05-31 18:22:58	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x6bdfbc…
05-31 18:12:45	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xbaccde…
05-24 17:50:05	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0x65c0a5…
05-24 17:32:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,544	98¢	$1,507	0x68e494…
05-23 15:36:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,544	84¢	$1,300	0x8b024a…
05-23 15:25:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	159	75¢	$119	0x890cf8…
05-23 15:21:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	299	96¢	$287	0xf9d820…
05-23 15:21:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	438	77¢	$339	0x37c16c…
05-22 16:50:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	152	95¢	$144	0xbdf2c7…
05-22 16:47:27	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	141	98¢	$138	0xc2cdeb…
05-14 14:28:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0x277e56…
05-13 19:47:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x151e33…
05-11 14:17:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	156	96¢	$150	0x775abc…
05-03 15:44:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	157	99¢	$155	0x981077…
04-30 18:46:00	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x0e5b5a…
04-30 18:10:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x65cbd0…
04-30 17:54:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x81b81d…
04-30 17:52:26	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	125	97¢	$121	0x1fa90f…
04-30 17:52:10	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	127	99¢	$125	0xc37744…
04-29 15:34:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	282	100¢	$281	0xbabb86…
04-29 15:33:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	378	100¢	$377	0x378212…
04-28 18:12:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x9882e4…
04-28 13:58:20	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	138	3¢	$4	0x9fef80…
04-26 13:56:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0x921cb6…
04-25 05:27:32	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	138	76¢	$104	0x92226a…
04-25 05:19:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	386	27¢	$104	0x938fd4…
04-24 14:14:10	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xd4dd96…
04-24 14:13:54	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x97db05…
04-24 14:00:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	484	93¢	$450	0xd9dd77…
04-24 13:51:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	386	74¢	$286	0x917422…
04-23 16:28:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x1daebc…
04-20 18:27:58	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	411	67¢	$277	0x78ae2b…
04-20 17:36:42	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	371	66¢	$243	0x7fceff…
04-20 17:31:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	870	28¢	$243	0xc6a84d…
04-20 17:27:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	299	80¢	$239	0x298a82…
04-20 17:20:02	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	261	92¢	$239	0xc8a9cb…
04-19 17:37:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	386	82¢	$316	0x83533f…
04-19 17:36:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	484	62¢	$300	0x697923…
04-16 04:17:04	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	277	72¢	$200	0xc8e084…
04-16 04:14:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	253	96¢	$244	0x933c26…
04-16 04:12:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	260	62¢	$161	0x2a1134…
04-15 13:28:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	269	74¢	$200	0xfdaacf…
04-14 18:17:48	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	261	77¢	$200	0x608fa5…
04-14 17:58:00	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	132	97¢	$128	0xd22ae1…
04-14 17:54:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	870	23¢	$200	0x47ac9d…
04-14 17:45:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0x39f142…
04-14 17:45:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	378	79¢	$300	0xc03e9a…
04-13 18:18:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x491eac…
04-08 17:41:47	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?	No	BUY	341	18¢	$60	0x073ca5…
04-08 17:35:21	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	No	BUY	143	42¢	$60	0xb95435…
04-08 17:27:29	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	No	SELL	138	87¢	$120	0x44a9cb…
04-06 13:33:25	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	132	79¢	$104	0x6582e0…
04-06 12:56:45	Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	No	BUY	138	44¢	$60	0x29525f…
04-02 19:06:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xe4d8e7…
03-20 21:38:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	67	80¢	$54	0x2e5486…
03-16 20:42:23	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x9c985a…
03-15 05:29:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x112ced…
03-14 09:45:39	btc updown 5m 1773481500	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xf6b55e…