Hot-Refusal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.5%

Resolved

Trades

646

lifetime

Volume

$3.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-12 16:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 17% $-40

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1774308900	2	$101	53	53	+0	open	—	03-23 23:39
btc updown 5m 1774309500	2	$98	56	56	+0	open	—	03-23 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	3	$82	76	76	+0	open	—	05-01 16:25
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	2	$69	77	76	+1	open	—	04-19 16:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	4	$57	79	79	+0	open	—	05-02 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	3	$51	129	129	+0	open	—	05-01 17:04
btc updown 5m 1774309200	1	$50	53	0	+53	open	—	03-23 23:43
btc updown 5m 1774341000	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	03-24 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	3	$47	72	43	+29	open	—	04-25 07:34
btc updown 5m 1774968600	2	$45	33	31	+1	open	—	03-31 14:51
btc updown 5m 1774299300	3	$43	83	42	+41	open	—	03-23 20:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	3	$40	40	20	+20	open	—	05-02 10:15
btc updown 5m 1774198500	2	$40	81	0	+81	open	—	03-22 16:54
btc updown 5m 1774342200	2	$40	84	0	+84	open	—	03-24 08:53
btc updown 5m 1774343400	1	$40	40	0	+40	open	—	03-24 09:14
btc updown 5m 1774380600	5	$40	40	39	+1	open	—	03-24 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	2	$38	33	33	+0	Up	+$28	05-06 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	3	$38	34	34	+0	open	—	05-01 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	3	$35	50	50	+0	open	—	05-02 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	2	$34	33	33	+0	open	—	05-02 10:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	3	$34	39	39	+0	open	—	05-02 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	3	$33	133	133	+0	open	—	05-01 06:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	2	$32	56	56	+0	open	—	05-01 09:18
btc updown 5m 1774607100	6	$31	84	29	+55	open	—	03-27 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$31	28	26	+2	open	—	04-25 09:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	3	$31	86	48	+38	open	—	05-02 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$30	40	40	+0	Up	+$10	05-10 16:13
btc updown 5m 1774557900	4	$30	34	34	+0	open	—	03-26 20:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$27	23	23	+0	open	—	05-01 18:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$27	23	23	+0	open	—	05-02 22:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 16:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x2d4cea…
05-12 15:59:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x36292e…
05-12 15:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x700dad…
05-12 15:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x391773…
05-12 15:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x17a2bc…
05-12 15:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x388697…
05-12 15:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x5527c3…
05-12 15:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x391362…
05-12 15:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	106	15¢	$16	0x4adc5b…
05-12 15:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xb675de…
05-12 15:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x68b3bf…
05-12 14:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xb025a0…
05-10 21:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3b87b1…
05-10 21:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3d9dc1…
05-10 21:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe1d55b…
05-10 21:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x46e753…
05-10 20:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb6eded…
05-10 20:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xcfac85…
05-10 20:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x328b32…
05-10 16:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xa83134…
05-10 16:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x608394…
05-10 16:48:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x315752…
05-10 16:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xf341bb…
05-10 16:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb73e71…
05-10 16:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x00524e…
05-10 16:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xd80fc1…
05-10 16:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x461e3a…
05-10 16:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x99cf6b…
05-10 16:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	49	10¢	$5	0xc47714…
05-10 16:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	23	38¢	$9	0x4fbb8c…
05-10 16:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x2ba849…
05-07 09:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2b5b4a…
05-06 22:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe3f857…
05-06 22:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8b179e…
05-06 22:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x8474fc…
05-06 22:16:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9dc274…
05-06 21:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xbc39e5…
05-06 17:24:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x92812d…
05-06 16:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x9537e5…
05-06 15:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb4186a…
05-06 15:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe5363d…
05-06 15:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdf7f0c…
05-06 14:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xdf2b71…
05-06 14:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x7d9b43…
05-06 14:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfb264f…
05-06 14:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xd13d97…
05-06 14:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe02720…
05-06 14:06:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x460bf4…
05-06 14:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x77a931…
05-04 21:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x334084…
05-04 21:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe15195…
05-04 21:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x795d84…
05-04 21:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xaa8d78…
05-03 22:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x779de3…
05-03 22:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xb9d3e1…
05-03 21:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8149cc…
05-03 21:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x939111…
05-03 21:17:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xdf34bd…
05-03 21:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	32	8¢	$2	0x16aa37…
05-03 21:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	56	14¢	$8	0x81e8c9…
05-03 21:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x60fc66…
05-03 21:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd1caa3…
05-03 17:12:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc94cb5…
05-03 17:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe89472…
05-03 17:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xb3898c…
05-03 15:06:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xaa4b7a…
05-03 15:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xa64be3…
05-03 15:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x846e6e…
05-03 14:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0xbece4f…
05-03 12:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	14	39¢	$5	0xb6169a…
05-03 12:27:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x7ae9dc…
05-02 22:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfc1839…
05-02 22:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x7322ea…
05-02 22:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0x3740f7…
05-02 22:21:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x54d079…
05-02 22:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9a2c78…
05-02 22:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0xbc0c79…
05-02 22:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x367c94…
05-02 22:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	48	33¢	$16	0xbdacc5…
05-02 22:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xee1150…
05-02 22:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x97ef97…
05-02 22:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0xfd967c…
05-02 22:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	19	29¢	$6	0x739c5b…
05-02 22:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	23	99¢	$22	0xd0a54e…
05-02 21:57:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x20427a…
05-02 21:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x46cd83…
05-02 21:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xd74793…
05-02 21:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	17	54¢	$9	0x42795f…
05-02 21:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x125ef7…
05-02 21:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x41599d…
05-02 21:48:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x8e1e1d…
05-02 21:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x9903d6…
05-02 21:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x28a1ed…
05-02 21:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xc707b9…
05-02 21:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb6134c…
05-02 21:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xed6ffb…
05-02 18:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0xe256da…
05-02 18:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbc0f49…
05-02 17:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0xa82146…
05-02 17:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xc57567…