Functional-Pilaf — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$104

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 10-20 09:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 100% +$15

Other

40% 100% +$7

Politics

18% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	10-07 10:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	4	$625	331	331	+0	Yes	+$5	06-14 12:14
xrp all time high by march 31 2026	2	$475	477	0	+477	No	+$2	03-19 05:32
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	2	$359	192	192	+0	No	+$9	01-27 11:59
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$350	351	0	+351	No	+$1	02-03 08:21
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	5	$261	132	132	+0	No	+$1	06-14 21:23
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	1	$225	226	0	+226	No	+$1	05-03 10:03
will xrp reach 4 in january 2026	1	$222	222	0	+222	No	+$0	01-27 11:58
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	5	$204	103	103	+0	No	+$0	10-20 09:47
will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	1	$194	194	0	+194	No	+$0	07-19 08:31
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$174	174	0	+174	No	+$0	04-10 12:39
solana above 110 on june 16 2026	1	$160	160	0	+160	No	+$0	06-14 11:47
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 640 659	1	$160	160	0	+160	No	+$0	01-27 12:00
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	05-21 00:51
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	06-08 09:18
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$150	151	0	+151	No	+$1	05-03 10:02
will bnb dip to 200 in august	1	$147	147	0	+147	No	+$0	08-04 10:00
Trump out as President by May 31?	1	$142	143	0	+143	No	+$1	05-03 10:00
solana above 60 on april 11	1	$130	130	0	+130	Yes	+$0	04-10 12:38
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$125	127	0	+127	No	+$2	04-10 12:39
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 240plus	1	$100	102	0	+102	No	+$2	01-14 13:12
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	01-14 13:14
will baidu have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-03 08:21
Will Solana dip to $10 in September?	1	$83	83	0	+83	No	+$0	09-05 09:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$65	65	0	+65	No	+$0	04-20 03:34
bitcoin above 80k on april 20	1	$65	65	0	+65	No	+$0	04-20 03:33
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	1	$58	58	0	+58	No	+$0	04-10 12:37
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	2	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$1	03-12 07:23
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	09-23 09:19
Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	09-23 09:18
will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in august 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	08-04 10:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 09:47:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0x1ee059…
10-20 06:48:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x0c7dc1…
10-20 06:44:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4e26ba…
10-20 06:12:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2a88c7…
10-19 07:40:38	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd8ac2a…
10-07 10:36:42	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xde539e…
10-07 10:35:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0xe23700…
09-23 09:19:55	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2409e9…
09-23 09:18:53	Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x53d4ef…
09-05 09:04:42	Will Solana dip to $10 in September?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0xbecee7…
08-20 10:05:52	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa8697f…
08-04 10:01:11	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in august 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x200560…
08-04 10:00:18	will bnb dip to 200 in august	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0xdfdba9…
07-19 08:33:42	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x007577…
07-19 08:33:06	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in july 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd44335…
07-19 08:31:42	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	194	100¢	$194	0x46632e…
06-14 21:23:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x9aef2f…
06-14 21:23:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7d3078…
06-14 21:23:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x742f7b…
06-14 21:23:37	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x29b765…
06-14 12:14:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x1ac95d…
06-14 11:47:12	solana above 110 on june 16 2026	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xefc871…
06-14 11:43:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xb347c0…
06-14 11:40:28	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	132	99¢	$130	0xae9556…
06-10 19:52:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	281	97¢	$273	0x452262…
06-08 09:18:36	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x7edcd8…
06-08 09:16:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	281	96¢	$270	0xe86b4a…
05-21 00:51:51	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x2a9cfe…
05-03 10:03:32	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	226	100¢	$225	0x8a6ca6…
05-03 10:02:52	Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$150	0x19bff5…
05-03 10:00:42	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x840f53…
04-20 03:34:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	65	99¢	$65	0x46b1be…
04-20 03:33:50	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x0b0dc4…
04-10 12:39:47	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	174	100¢	$174	0xfb01c2…
04-10 12:39:13	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	127	98¢	$125	0x82f390…
04-10 12:38:27	solana above 60 on april 11	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x72a798…
04-10 12:37:35	Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	No	BUY	58	99¢	$58	0x01cf1f…
03-19 05:32:41	xrp all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x3ae8c8…
03-12 07:23:49	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x6a25bf…
03-06 07:48:55	xrp all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	412	100¢	$410	0xca9952…
02-09 07:50:07	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xfc2369…
02-03 08:21:52	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0ceea9…
02-03 08:21:28	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	351	100¢	$350	0xf3f9c7…
01-27 12:00:11	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 640 659	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x3cb347…
01-27 11:59:33	ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	192	96¢	$184	0x932759…
01-27 11:58:49	will xrp reach 4 in january 2026	No	BUY	222	100¢	$222	0xc967d7…
01-14 13:14:00	will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xfacd91…
01-14 13:13:14	ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	192	91¢	$175	0xccba15…
01-14 13:12:16	elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 240plus	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xcaf280…