Last-Incandescence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$109

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

20.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$217

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-09

last 09-21 15:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

52% 0% -$60

Crypto

27% 45% -$12

Politics

21% 17% -$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		+48	$30	18¢	$9	-$21	05-13 03:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kash Patel out by June 30?	2	$30	91	0	+91	No	-$30	05-13 03:36
Kash Patel out by December 31?	1	$30	48	0	+48	open	—	05-13 03:39
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$30	193	0	+193	No	-$30	05-13 03:33
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	2	$22	33	33	+0	open	—	09-21 15:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$20	6,660	0	+6,660	Yes	-$20	04-09 03:15
bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 9am et	5	$11	20	3	+17	Down	-$5	04-12 14:05
Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?	1	$10	16	0	+16	No	-$10	04-30 22:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	05-04 20:14
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:45 UTC	2	$6	5	4	+0	Up	+$2	04-16 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$6	9	0	+9	Up	+$0	05-02 13:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:05 UTC	1	$6	7	0	+7	Up	-$6	04-10 00:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:15 UTC	2	$6	7	0	+7	Down	+$1	04-10 00:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	2	$6	8	0	+8	Up	-$1	05-02 13:03
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$5	333	0	+333	No	-$5	04-10 02:56
Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?	1	$5	9	0	+9	Yes	+$4	04-30 22:09
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 22	1	$5	11	0	+11	No	-$5	04-21 18:42
Trump out as President by June 30?	1	$4	160	0	+160	No	-$4	05-02 12:53
Trump out as President by May 31?	1	$2	250	0	+250	No	-$2	05-02 12:51
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 02:45 UTC	1	$1	4	0	+4	Down	-$1	04-10 02:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	1	$1	14	0	+14	Up	-$1	05-02 12:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$1	5	0	+5	Up	+$4	05-02 13:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 15:33:53	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x778ea3…
05-13 03:44:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x19deda…
05-13 03:39:24	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0xda3143…
05-13 03:36:43	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x9331ba…
05-13 03:33:44	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	167	15¢	$25	0xe8f93b…
05-09 03:01:54	Kash Patel out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x49fbfc…
05-09 03:01:30	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xeb74fe…
05-04 20:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfb346b…
05-04 20:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x78e0e7…
05-02 13:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x3282e0…
05-02 13:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5baa17…
05-02 13:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x42ada8…
05-02 13:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x571e6e…
05-02 13:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x359f30…
05-02 12:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa47c79…
05-02 12:53:06	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	2¢	$4	0x6a4ab6…
05-02 12:51:56	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0x916c46…
04-30 22:09:46	Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xbc6674…
04-30 22:00:18	Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x9e8031…
04-21 18:42:28	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 22	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x59be98…
04-16 19:49:52	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x9fdb5e…
04-16 19:48:18	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-16 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xbe6cef…
04-12 14:05:21	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 9am et	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x7d5a74…
04-12 13:58:29	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xea4479…
04-12 13:56:47	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x465b02…
04-12 13:56:39	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6478bc…
04-12 13:43:43	bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf1f66f…
04-10 02:56:45	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	333	2¢	$5	0x778ce0…
04-10 02:47:05	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xccb30b…
04-10 00:18:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x08f31e…
04-10 00:18:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x0f6051…
04-10 00:08:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:05 UTC	Down	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x3136d4…
04-09 03:15:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	3,330	0¢	$10	0x93dfe3…
04-09 03:00:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,663	0¢	$5	0x7fafb7…
04-09 02:53:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0xfd2cbf…