Fearless-Experiment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$126

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.0%

Resolved

5,530

Trades

7,642

lifetime

Volume

$28.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-16 22:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 71% -$126

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 88 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 23:30 UTC	13	$212	126	125	+1	Down	+$12	02-08 23:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 23:00 UTC	20	$165	125	124	+1	Down	-$5	01-29 23:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 23:15 UTC	41	$147	129	127	+1	Up	+$4	01-29 23:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 00:15 UTC	41	$143	137	135	+2	Down	+$1	02-07 00:30
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 01:45 UTC	2	$136	68	68	+0	Down	+$0	01-29 02:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 11:30 UTC	54	$133	168	167	+2	Up	+$4	01-29 11:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 14:45 UTC	52	$127	141	140	+1	Down	-$4	01-30 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	31	$123	123	123	+0	Up	-$5	05-16 19:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 01:30 UTC	9	$115	68	67	+0	Up	-$1	02-07 01:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 01:00 UTC	18	$94	90	88	+1	Down	$0	02-07 01:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 23:00 UTC	5	$92	51	51	+0	Up	+$0	02-08 23:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 00:30 UTC	38	$89	98	97	+1	Up	-$9	01-30 00:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 21:45 UTC	6	$88	46	46	+0	Down	+$0	02-08 22:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 00:15 UTC	26	$87	72	71	+1	Down	+$8	01-30 00:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 12:45 UTC	5	$87	47	47	+0	Down	+$1	02-07 13:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 21:30 UTC	6	$85	51	51	+0	Down	+$3	02-08 21:42
ethereum up or down january 26 4am et	4	$75	99	99	+0	Down	$0	01-26 09:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 13:15 UTC	13	$75	56	56	+1	Up	+$13	02-07 13:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 18:15 UTC	1	$75	76	0	+76	Up	+$1	01-27 18:29
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 11:30 UTC	25	$72	72	71	+1	Up	+$5	01-29 11:37
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 15:45 UTC	1	$72	72	0	+72	Up	+$0	01-27 15:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 22:45 UTC	24	$71	65	64	+1	Up	+$5	01-29 22:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 15:00 UTC	2	$71	72	0	+72	Up	+$1	01-27 15:11
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 11:30 UTC	30	$70	83	82	+1	Up	-$5	01-29 11:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 14:30 UTC	1	$69	71	0	+71	Down	+$1	01-27 14:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 23:45 UTC	3	$69	88	22	+67	Down	-$57	02-08 23:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 13:30 UTC	1	$69	69	0	+69	Up	+$0	01-27 13:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 00:00 UTC	23	$68	69	68	+1	Up	-$1	02-08 00:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 22:30 UTC	22	$67	73	72	+1	Up	-$4	01-29 22:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 12:30 UTC	3	$67	71	0	+71	Down	+$4	01-27 12:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 22:58:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 22:45 UTC	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x9841e2…
10-16 19:06:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x0c75b0…
10-16 18:51:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x1f5340…
10-16 18:40:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x94d229…
10-16 18:19:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x9fb2f4…
10-16 18:06:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x81b6cd…
10-16 17:49:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xfbba6e…
10-16 17:21:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x8cedc2…
10-16 17:04:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x78b585…
10-16 16:34:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xcffe4a…
10-16 16:19:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x74197f…
10-16 16:05:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xb97e96…
10-16 15:49:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xa9b607…
10-16 15:34:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x511128…
10-16 15:19:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x09646a…
10-16 15:04:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xfd3a09…
10-16 14:50:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x76b7bf…
10-16 14:34:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xa617f3…
10-16 14:21:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xdd83eb…
10-16 14:04:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xaf63c9…
10-16 13:49:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x9cb3b1…
10-16 13:34:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xf2063a…
10-16 13:19:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x896dcb…
10-16 13:04:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x908ba7…
10-16 12:34:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xd16740…
10-16 12:19:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 12:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x75e114…
10-16 11:49:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xe7a696…
10-16 11:34:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd29e98…
10-16 11:20:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x352e15…
10-16 11:04:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x481bf4…
10-16 10:49:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x36f0df…
10-16 10:19:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x861195…
10-16 09:49:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xb1e46f…
10-16 09:04:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xfce90d…
10-16 08:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xb602b2…
10-16 08:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xcadedb…
10-16 08:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xabc3f8…
10-16 08:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x18a648…
10-16 07:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xd1cd5c…
10-16 07:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x1f3244…
10-16 07:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x728d3b…
10-16 07:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xcd0e1a…
10-16 06:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xbe5a2d…
10-16 05:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xeb60b9…
10-16 05:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x407b88…
10-16 04:22:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x72f5e5…
10-16 04:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x99adfe…
10-16 03:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x246fa5…
10-16 03:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x8c4468…
10-16 02:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xd3ed36…
10-16 02:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x29cfcd…
10-16 02:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xda764b…
10-16 01:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x3daf52…
10-16 01:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xe35b15…
10-16 01:20:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xfc8f28…
10-16 01:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x9e037a…
10-16 00:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x38d8b7…
10-16 00:34:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xcaa694…
10-16 00:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xe17f2b…
10-16 00:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xe7dae0…
10-15 23:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xcd622a…
10-15 23:35:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x85dbb1…
10-15 23:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x4fdcb6…
10-15 22:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x97e4d5…
10-15 22:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x66e9ca…
10-15 21:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x8edb89…
10-15 21:35:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xcca2b3…
10-15 21:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe8db4c…
10-15 20:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x73b0e3…
10-15 19:19:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xa5c0bf…
10-15 18:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9d3641…
10-15 18:34:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x12f2af…
10-15 18:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4af837…
10-15 17:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xaa861f…
10-15 17:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb32d8f…
10-15 16:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x3de949…
10-15 16:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x313d66…
10-15 16:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x91c8d5…
10-15 15:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x9651ca…
10-15 15:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xd29034…
10-15 15:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe88ade…
10-15 15:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x8ccd41…
10-15 14:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5acb67…
10-15 14:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x2b9086…
10-15 14:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x38641e…
10-15 13:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x484918…
10-15 13:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xb73dd9…
10-15 13:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x7adbd4…
10-15 13:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x47c597…
10-15 12:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x7d0bd5…
10-15 12:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x15857d…
10-15 12:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x559033…
10-15 12:04:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x2ff38f…
10-15 11:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x9c7cc1…
10-15 11:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x7fd726…
10-15 11:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xfb2b69…
10-15 10:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x8c5d84…
10-15 10:41:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xed709e…
10-15 10:04:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x3283f9…
10-15 09:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xa1f835…