Fat-Wiring — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

118

Trades

250

lifetime

Volume

$435

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 08-26 17:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

85% 49% -$11

Crypto

8% 68% +$2

Sports

4% 57% -$2

Tech

3% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	13	$79	48	48	+0	Yes	+$7	07-29 18:07
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	8	$35	21	21	+0	Yes	+$2	07-29 10:30
will warsh say dual mandate during june press conference 20260608181156660 159 592	7	$18	16	16	+0	Yes	+$1	06-17 16:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$15	13	13	+0	No	-$1	07-22 13:33
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	4	$10	27	27	+0	No	$0	06-11 17:42
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$9	7	7	+0	Yes	$0	05-25 18:30
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	7	$9	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	07-17 01:29
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	5	$8	12	12	+0	No	-$2	07-19 10:11
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	2	$8	6	6	+0	Yes	+$0	07-21 12:40
will jpmorgan say credit card during earnings call 20260710145006623	4	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	07-14 13:51
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	4	$7	9	4	+4	No	-$4	08-26 17:27
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?	4	$7	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	07-13 17:22
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	2	$6	4	4	+0	Yes	+$0	08-26 17:27
spx opens up or down on july 13 2026	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	07-13 12:48
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	3	$5	11	0	+11	No	-$5	07-02 22:07
Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	08-16 02:00
will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	06-17 18:36
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$5	5	5	+0	Yes	$0	06-11 06:09
HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 12:05 UTC	4	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	07-11 12:10
will warsh say depression or recession during june press conference 20260608181156654	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	+$1	06-17 19:19
will the announcers say dolphins during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757330	3	$4	5	5	+0	No	+$0	07-18 14:16
will the announcers say shakira during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403318	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	$0	07-19 02:31
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?	2	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-21 12:41
Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?	2	$4	2	2	+0	Yes	$0	07-21 12:41
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	3	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	07-24 11:12
will cisco say tariff during earnings call 20260807205828987	2	$4	7	7	+0	No	-$1	08-12 03:17
BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 15:30 UTC	4	$4	4	3	+1	Down	-$2	07-11 15:34
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	3	$3	5	2	+4	No	-$2	07-23 03:23
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	4	$3	10	10	+0	No	-$1	07-24 11:12
BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-11 18:00 UTC	3	$3	4	2	+2	Up	$0	07-11 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 17:27:45	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of August?	No	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0xd5d09c…
08-26 17:27:33	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xdefda1…
08-26 17:27:09	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$2	0x16a057…
08-18 05:11:42	will klarna say banking license during earnings call	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x943618…
08-16 23:44:07	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x281ebb…
08-16 02:00:19	Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x007e32…
08-14 03:58:18	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xf89d48…
08-14 03:57:55	spcx above 120 on august 31 2026	No	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0xb8b1c5…
08-12 03:56:07	Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x8d833a…
08-12 03:54:45	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x81dfcd…
08-12 03:28:10	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x0e5d3f…
08-12 03:17:04	will cisco say tariff during earnings call 20260807205828987	No	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x0b6f5d…
08-12 03:15:48	will cisco say tariff during earnings call 20260807205828987	No	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0xd8f5d9…
08-11 20:20:40	will cava say tariff during earnings call 20260807205722562	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xafcccf…
08-11 20:19:16	will cava say catering during earnings call 20260807205722557	Yes	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x1ac7b9…
08-11 20:04:24	will cava say catering during earnings call 20260807205722557	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xbf446a…
08-10 18:58:22	will hims say regulation during earnings call 20260807205625288	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x731565…
08-10 18:27:45	spcx above 130 on august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x9e27de…
08-10 00:39:54	spcx above 120 on august 31 2026	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x264e49…
08-10 00:39:43	spcx above 120 on august 31 2026	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4add02…
08-03 17:38:33	will amd say microsoft or azure during earnings call 20260730164425708	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x5b9285…
08-03 17:29:26	will palantir say healthcare during earnings call 20260730163530767	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x8a13a6…
08-02 11:52:41	spacex closing price updown end of july 20260630212930798	Down	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0x60d603…
08-02 11:52:03	will spotify say customer during earnings call 20260730163821619	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x48f88a…
08-01 11:37:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$1	0x67a70b…
08-01 11:36:59	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xd3649b…
08-01 03:09:14	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc7ff3f…
07-30 12:59:09	xauusd up or down on july 30 2026	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xdfdef1…
07-30 12:58:53	xauusd up or down on july 30 2026	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x8b74f7…
07-30 10:58:15	xauusd up or down on july 30 2026	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe6cb39…
07-30 10:54:53	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x60073b…
07-29 21:28:53	will warsh say echo of history during july press conference 20260720204109034	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x6f0d9f…
07-29 18:34:18	will warsh say north star during july press conference 20260720204109036	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x9a9db2…
07-29 18:31:32	will warsh say good afternoon during july press conference 20260720204109060 622	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xf9f0ee…
07-29 18:07:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3888f5…
07-29 18:07:02	will warsh say north star during july press conference 20260720204109036	No	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0xa761be…
07-29 18:06:29	will warsh say good afternoon during july press conference 20260720204109060 622	Yes	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0xb6c1f1…
07-29 17:47:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x28f232…
07-29 17:46:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x257c66…
07-29 16:59:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2fe283…
07-29 16:57:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0x179884…
07-29 10:30:51	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xa6d51c…
07-24 11:12:49	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	58¢	$1	0xef7866…
07-24 11:12:37	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x246f13…
07-24 10:39:18	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x6ba79c…
07-24 10:37:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x5dd590…
07-24 05:24:51	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0x442bf4…
07-23 14:42:57	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xd29cd5…
07-23 14:28:00	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd7f0c0…
07-23 14:21:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x6d6499…
07-23 11:39:00	Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$1	0x4e7af1…
07-23 03:23:52	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$1	0xb5a9db…
07-23 02:50:18	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xff057f…
07-23 02:50:07	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x16aab8…
07-22 15:16:31	tsla up or down on july 22 2026	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x9602ad…
07-22 13:33:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x4f7885…
07-21 17:04:04	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb20a65…
07-21 14:39:43	will warsh say good afternoon during july press conference 20260720204109060	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xab8e02…
07-21 14:36:58	spcx above 130 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x277817…
07-21 12:42:18	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb47a77…
07-21 12:41:31	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0xd84a93…
07-21 12:41:21	Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x10eac9…
07-21 12:40:52	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x582a4f…
07-21 12:10:43	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x60cbb3…
07-21 12:10:06	Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xd235a0…
07-21 12:08:28	Will Warsh say "North Star" during July Press Conference?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xeac236…
07-21 12:08:15	Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6ca8ad…
07-21 11:20:34	spcx above 130 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x44ed37…
07-21 07:53:33	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xdd68d9…
07-20 08:14:10	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdc5385…
07-19 20:17:48	will the announcers say qatar or russia during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956897	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xf55995…
07-19 19:32:22	will the announcers say maradona or pele during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403323	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x858654…
07-19 11:07:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0x21c4c2…
07-19 10:11:58	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	29¢	$3	0x9d48f5…
07-19 10:03:13	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x45de02…
07-19 02:31:34	will the announcers say shakira during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403318	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x5ea136…
07-19 02:29:06	will the announcers say bronze during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740624	Yes	SELL	3	7¢	$0	0xacfcf4…
07-18 15:23:34	will the announcers say shakira during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403318	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x75d7b4…
07-18 15:18:25	will the announcers say maradona or pele during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716161403323	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x3e329e…
07-18 15:15:57	will the announcers say qatar or russia during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956897	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x629983…
07-18 14:45:55	Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xe3f4d8…
07-18 14:16:18	will the announcers say dolphins during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757330	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xcaf0fb…
07-18 09:39:49	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740639	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x46f892…
07-18 09:24:46	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x679110…
07-18 06:54:19	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x4ba9cd…
07-18 06:32:49	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xfd73bb…
07-17 01:33:57	will the announcers say dolphins during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757330	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xfddb29…
07-17 01:31:51	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x4f79dc…
07-17 01:29:48	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x4f8c1d…
07-17 01:29:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xd5c6d6…
07-17 01:28:02	will the announcers say dolphins during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716160757330	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x275654…
07-17 01:14:10	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740639	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x89106b…
07-17 01:13:37	will the announcers say ronaldo during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740641	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb3d629…
07-17 01:06:53	Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xe685f4…
07-17 01:06:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x1d7359…
07-17 01:05:04	will the announcers say bronze during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740624	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x69fd83…
07-17 00:26:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	96¢	$25	0x0aefbe…
07-17 00:22:58	will the announcers say bronze during the france vs england fifa world cup match 20260716154740624	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x94eaab…
07-16 23:57:40	spcx above 150 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xdd031e…
07-16 22:20:31	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0xde567f…