Frightened-Knee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$116

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

573

Trades

981

lifetime

Volume

$5.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-03

last 09-21 09:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 70% -$16

Other

12% 34% +$162

Politics

1% 60% -$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No		+0	$0	98¢	$0	$0	06-07 23:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	91	$344	325	300	+25	Down	-$24	05-13 21:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	44	$132	160	160	+0	Up	-$16	05-13 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	14	$90	60	35	+25	Up	+$2	05-13 21:40
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 8?	2	$75	72	72	+0	Yes	+$69	05-08 11:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?	2	$55	53	53	+0	No	+$47	05-10 07:18
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-10 20:00 UTC	2	$50	58	0	+58	Down	+$8	06-10 22:32
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-10 20:00 UTC	2	$49	62	0	+62	Down	+$13	06-10 22:17
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-16 16:00 UTC	2	$35	38	38	+0	Down	-$24	06-16 19:35
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 16:00 UTC	1	$30	38	0	+38	Down	+$8	06-17 18:36
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 20:00 UTC	1	$30	38	0	+38	Up	+$8	06-17 22:33
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC	1	$30	38	0	+38	Up	+$8	06-17 02:12
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 20:00 UTC	6	$30	37	0	+37	Up	+$7	06-17 22:27
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC	1	$30	37	0	+37	Up	+$7	06-17 02:16
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-16 12:00 UTC	1	$30	37	0	+37	Down	+$7	06-16 14:12
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-16 16:00 UTC	1	$30	37	0	+37	Up	+$7	06-16 18:16
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 08:00 UTC	1	$30	35	0	+35	Down	+$5	06-17 10:12
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 16:00 UTC	1	$30	35	0	+35	Down	+$5	06-17 19:21
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-16 20:00 UTC	1	$30	38	0	+38	Down	-$30	06-16 22:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$30	30,000	0	+30,000	Yes	-$30	05-09 19:22
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 12:00 UTC	1	$30	36	0	+36	Up	+$6	06-17 14:10
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-16 12:00 UTC	1	$30	36	0	+36	Down	+$6	06-16 14:12
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 12:00 UTC	1	$30	36	0	+36	Up	+$6	06-17 14:15
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC	1	$30	38	0	+38	Down	-$30	06-18 02:24
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 12:00 UTC	1	$30	37	0	+37	Up	+$7	06-17 14:11
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC	3	$30	37	0	+37	Down	+$7	06-17 06:32
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC	1	$30	37	0	+37	Down	-$30	06-18 02:24
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC	1	$30	36	0	+36	Down	-$30	06-18 02:26
SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC	1	$29	38	0	+38	Down	-$29	06-18 02:21
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC	1	$29	36	0	+36	Down	+$7	06-17 06:33
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC	1	$29	37	0	+37	Down	+$8	06-17 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 09:28:51	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-21 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xc89437…
09-21 04:58:46	XRP Up or Down - September 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x22627e…
09-21 00:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x898977…
09-15 17:28:46	Solana Up or Down - September 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	47	51¢	$24	0xd67ea6…
09-15 12:43:46	Solana Up or Down - September 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	46	52¢	$24	0x3703cf…
09-15 04:28:46	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-15 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	43	56¢	$24	0x565ad6…
09-14 19:28:48	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	46	53¢	$24	0x5e8f29…
09-14 07:13:46	XRP Up or Down - September 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x61dd12…
09-14 00:58:46	Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	53¢	$12	0x5792ab…
09-13 18:58:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xd64be6…
09-13 16:58:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xd0a19a…
09-13 07:28:51	Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	22	53¢	$12	0xc72591…
09-10 20:28:49	Solana Up or Down - September 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x022bf7…
09-10 17:58:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	55¢	$8	0x5a50b0…
09-10 10:13:46	Solana Up or Down - September 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0x64f3cb…
09-10 08:43:51	Solana Up or Down - September 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0xc4c63e…
09-10 00:28:49	Solana Up or Down - September 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x688014…
09-08 19:58:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xc4d7dc…
09-08 16:58:48	Solana Up or Down - September 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe9a3f0…
09-08 12:58:48	Solana Up or Down - September 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x7cabeb…
09-08 10:28:54	Ethereum Up or Down - September 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xc4f9b5…
09-08 03:58:48	Solana Up or Down - September 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x927aa7…
09-07 13:58:51	XRP Up or Down - September 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0xc2e7af…
09-07 11:13:48	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x53fed8…
09-07 08:13:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0x57ffab…
09-07 05:13:48	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-07 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xd7f643…
09-07 02:13:48	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x3f39db…
09-06 08:13:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x109c41…
09-06 01:13:48	Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x3ab68d…
09-06 00:58:48	XRP Up or Down - September 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0xfbb879…
09-05 19:43:55	XRP Up or Down - September 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x9f7209…
09-05 14:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x2c7b2f…
08-24 23:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-24 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x89fb51…
08-24 15:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-24 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x7083c6…
08-23 19:00:10	Solana Up or Down - August 23, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xa56e36…
08-20 23:00:07	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-20 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x95212d…
08-17 19:00:09	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-17 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x0d841d…
08-17 15:00:07	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-17 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x58e5b3…
08-15 23:00:07	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-15 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x35e5d1…
08-15 19:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-15 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x83c0ab…
08-15 15:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-15 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xa5b581…
08-15 07:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-15 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x9705b2…
08-11 11:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-11 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x663d9f…
08-08 19:00:09	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x6b281c…
08-08 15:00:09	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x3a6724…
08-08 07:00:09	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x46d432…
08-08 03:00:09	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-08 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xb5d677…
08-04 15:00:09	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-04 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x37e340…
08-03 07:00:09	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-03 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x031db5…
08-01 11:00:08	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-01 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x79742a…
08-01 07:00:08	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-01 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x94eeaf…
07-31 11:00:09	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-31 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x6c4703…
07-31 07:00:08	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-31 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x9d4b24…
07-28 23:00:10	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-28 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x1a0091…
07-26 07:00:07	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-26 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xfe146a…
07-25 23:00:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-25 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xb7bc11…
07-25 15:00:10	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-25 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xba3740…
07-14 19:20:01	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-14 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	65	38¢	$25	0x1bf4ac…
07-14 11:00:52	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-14 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x5f59cd…
06-28 15:10:11	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-28 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x033ee4…
06-28 07:08:43	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-28 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x96ff65…
06-28 06:20:20	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-28 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x1d4a28…
06-27 22:20:20	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xf33df6…
06-27 22:20:20	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xb50c91…
06-27 22:20:20	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x430250…
06-27 14:38:04	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x962b6b…
06-27 11:05:52	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x588118…
06-27 10:33:02	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6bcace…
06-27 10:31:44	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x04e259…
06-27 07:40:01	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xab1464…
06-27 07:24:50	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x8abc60…
06-27 06:20:22	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x86fad5…
06-27 02:24:13	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-27 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x4c5903…
06-24 10:21:38	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-24 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xeab19a…
06-24 02:39:34	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-24 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0xcb0728…
06-23 22:15:29	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-23 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x3c4b1a…
06-23 18:48:40	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-23 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0xb704a7…
06-23 15:08:13	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-23 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x80bda4…
06-23 14:36:49	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-23 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x9fac94…
06-23 14:35:34	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-23 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x7899b6…
06-22 22:27:10	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x1d6006…
06-22 22:27:08	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xd2cb39…
06-22 18:45:50	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x3f1e1d…
06-22 18:16:29	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x2f2fda…
06-22 14:33:04	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x9bd545…
06-22 14:29:23	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x2a164e…
06-22 14:27:59	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x83e3d1…
06-22 14:11:11	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xaa6e5b…
06-22 11:11:34	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x28088c…
06-22 11:10:50	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xf11995…
06-22 10:21:29	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xac7394…
06-22 06:13:04	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x34db3f…
06-22 06:10:44	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x29a4e4…
06-22 06:10:16	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x470375…
06-22 06:10:13	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-22 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xa27a64…
06-21 11:20:02	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-21 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x4ef460…
06-21 11:17:23	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-21 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xf0e56d…
06-21 11:05:37	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-21 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x7d6fcf…
06-21 10:11:28	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-21 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xef4705…
06-21 06:34:04	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-21 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xd361f8…