Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

Trades

291

lifetime

Volume

$37.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$129

Open exposure

$97

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 11-02 18:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Tech

73% 31% +$365

Politics

21% 33% -$63

Other

6% 18% -$291

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+625	$100	16¢	$97	-$3	11-02 18:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	7	$4.0K	2,361	2,361	+0	Yes	+$16	06-30 17:27
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	31	$4.0K	2,622	2,622	+0	Yes	+$811	06-09 16:57
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	9	$3.2K	3,362	3,362	+0	Yes	-$1,350	06-30 17:47
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	3	$3.0K	5,071	5,071	+0	Yes	+$2,085	02-06 19:50
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	90	$2.1K	15,954	12,755	+3,199	No	-$24	04-27 18:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	9	$2.0K	2,475	2,475	+0	Yes	-$210	06-24 18:59
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	2	$1.8K	1,928	1,928	+0	Yes	-$190	02-22 13:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$1.6K	982	982	+0	Yes	+$245	02-28 19:50
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	9	$1.4K	821	821	+0	Yes	+$141	06-09 17:05
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	5	$1.2K	6,256	6,256	+0	No	-$977	03-05 19:16
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	7	$1.1K	1,412	1,412	+0	Yes	+$594	06-09 16:57
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$1.1K	602	602	+0	No	+$72	02-14 07:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$1.0K	628	628	-0	Yes	+$23	05-31 08:33
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$978	1,111	1,111	+0	Yes	-$22	02-09 19:49
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	8	$915	605	605	+0	Yes	+$283	06-09 17:05
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	8	$913	1,620	1,620	+0	No	-$137	06-24 17:10
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	2	$857	2,279	2,279	+0	No	-$143	02-03 18:14
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	5	$767	1,753	1,753	+0	No	-$123	01-13 19:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$724	844	844	+0	Yes	-$28	03-05 19:13
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	9	$662	7,872	7,872	-0	No	-$148	06-09 02:30
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	4	$529	794	794	+0	No	-$291	06-23 14:43
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$394	317	317	+0	Yes	-$6	03-27 06:41
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	3	$389	2,875	2,875	+0	No	-$11	02-17 17:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$388	625	625	+0	Yes	-$12	03-26 11:44
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	4	$350	1,491	1,491	+0	No	-$150	06-07 22:42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$286	153	153	+0	Yes	-$2	04-19 09:59
will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	5	$266	460	200	+260	No	-$93	08-17 05:27
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	2	$213	1,250	1,250	+0	No	+$13	02-05 18:38
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	8	$204	1,810	1,810	+0	open	—	09-21 18:07
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	2	$177	833	833	+0	open	—	09-21 18:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 18:22:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0x49ed03…
09-21 18:07:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,810	3¢	$54	0x5c4e9a…
09-21 18:05:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	833	9¢	$77	0xdbe903…
08-17 05:28:09	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0xe4da7e…
08-17 05:27:58	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	260	19¢	$50	0xf3b35c…
08-13 12:15:01	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x86538e…
08-13 12:14:43	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,022	10¢	$100	0xc2d586…
08-12 18:49:24	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	335	7¢	$22	0x7171bb…
08-12 18:49:24	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x23e4d0…
08-12 18:49:19	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	6¢	$16	0xc487b6…
08-07 17:22:52	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	SELL	200	43¢	$87	0xaa4aee…
08-07 17:22:31	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$12	0x242434…
08-06 15:06:24	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	188	65¢	$122	0xb13bf7…
08-06 14:56:45	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	191	35¢	$67	0xe17bf3…
08-06 14:54:51	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x34c925…
08-06 14:49:24	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x41949f…
08-06 14:49:02	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	Yes	BUY	109	34¢	$37	0xec9ac9…
07-17 17:31:33	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x336c9f…
07-17 17:30:28	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xa8f1f4…
07-14 17:40:08	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xcf2ed0…
07-07 13:29:52	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0xe0ee64…
07-03 16:40:49	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0xab3765…
07-01 06:54:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x635d41…
06-30 22:27:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	Yes	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0x3e6595…
06-30 17:47:01	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	729	1¢	$7	0x7c8ce7…
06-30 17:28:13	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	729	25¢	$179	0x5dccaf…
06-30 17:27:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	SELL	221	84¢	$187	0xc5830b…
06-30 17:21:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	BUY	221	85¢	$187	0xd53a47…
06-30 17:18:49	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	SELL	250	71¢	$178	0x8b8168…
06-30 17:15:37	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xfedb9c…
06-30 17:15:28	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	832	20¢	$168	0x1f2411…
06-30 17:04:32	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	832	60¢	$500	0xc2ef70…
06-30 17:03:53	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	SELL	1,551	37¢	$574	0x18da52…
06-30 14:13:17	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	790	88¢	$698	0xf61d70…
06-30 14:12:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	SELL	787	85¢	$665	0xd399e7…
06-30 13:37:43	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	761	92¢	$700	0xc1a1c3…
06-30 13:37:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	SELL	819	84¢	$692	0x1a1ed5…
06-27 15:09:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	1,607	87¢	$1,400	0x06081a…
06-26 17:08:53	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	239	12¢	$29	0x26fc2a…
06-24 19:01:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	Yes	SELL	533	86¢	$459	0xa693b6…
06-24 18:59:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	1,122	58¢	$651	0x6d9e77…
06-24 17:10:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	589	31¢	$181	0xa33967…
06-24 17:08:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	566	29¢	$165	0x322eed…
06-24 16:58:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	141	53¢	$75	0xd2ed66…
06-24 16:38:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	350	29¢	$100	0xa02151…
06-24 16:38:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	473	42¢	$200	0x3c70b6…
06-24 16:17:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	663	15¢	$100	0xeca9a9…
06-24 16:10:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	650	31¢	$200	0x8e6b69…
06-24 16:10:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31	Yes	BUY	533	75¢	$400	0xeef2dd…
06-23 14:48:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	465	9¢	$42	0x014b3b…
06-23 14:48:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	677	17¢	$116	0x941136…
06-23 14:48:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	677	18¢	$123	0xee5e60…
06-23 14:43:59	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	6¢	$14	0x2868dc…
06-23 14:43:55	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	255	11¢	$27	0xd56004…
06-23 14:43:49	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	794	15¢	$119	0x4883e5…
06-23 14:24:38	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	420	24¢	$100	0x7203fd…
06-23 12:23:47	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	239	42¢	$100	0x293b5c…
06-22 19:59:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	266	38¢	$100	0x1b099d…
06-22 04:42:10	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	BUY	255	51¢	$130	0x3acd2c…
06-22 04:41:31	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xbd3b14…
06-22 04:30:47	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x914c70…
06-21 14:36:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	357	56¢	$200	0xb1177f…
06-21 14:36:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xf2df4d…
06-19 18:36:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	318	63¢	$200	0xa34d18…
06-18 17:57:02	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	351	85¢	$300	0x61a39c…
06-18 13:36:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	312	64¢	$200	0x95f8f8…
06-18 12:49:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0x04e381…
06-18 12:48:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xd5a2b1…
06-18 12:48:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	417	48¢	$200	0xe928e0…
06-17 15:16:44	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf88991…
06-17 15:12:40	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	7¢	$10	0x388fde…
06-17 15:12:02	Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0xeccafd…
06-17 14:46:04	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0xed4149…
06-17 14:46:04	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xe53d4b…
06-17 14:27:37	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xea644d…
06-17 14:27:37	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0x603200…
06-17 14:27:37	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x2b7398…
06-17 14:07:11	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	265	1¢	$2	0xd83267…
06-17 13:55:23	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x9fca10…
06-17 13:55:19	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0x61ccd0…
06-09 17:05:54	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	SELL	605	99¢	$599	0x68377d…
06-09 17:05:51	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	SELL	703	99¢	$697	0x54f72e…
06-09 16:57:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	539	98¢	$526	0x6c2b6b…
06-09 16:57:12	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	631	97¢	$610	0xb4a8d7…
06-09 08:26:01	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x5dab5e…
06-09 07:57:36	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	365	52¢	$190	0xb5ad13…
06-09 07:56:57	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xcc97f1…
06-09 07:56:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x237b83…
06-09 07:55:39	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xc9bc8d…
06-09 07:55:37	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	220	52¢	$114	0x2a11d5…
06-09 07:53:43	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	330	93¢	$308	0x7a61b8…
06-09 03:43:10	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	358	84¢	$300	0xcc8dfe…
06-09 03:39:06	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	355	87¢	$308	0xa776a6…
06-09 03:36:31	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	91¢	$41	0x3ae6b9…
06-09 03:36:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7ff81c…
06-09 03:35:04	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x656b98…
06-09 03:34:57	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0xf1d6c2…
06-09 03:33:51	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x488ed3…
06-09 03:32:31	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xfd871e…
06-09 03:32:18	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0x4f9be2…