Realized P&L
-$4.71K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.26K
Hit rate
82.7%
Resolved
125
Trades
2,457
lifetime
Volume
$218.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$89
Open exposure
$7.52K
14 positions
First seen
2026-07-04
last 10-27 04:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 52 days
Categories
Other
49% 65% -$1,199
Politics
30% 62% -$3,861
Tech
16% 70% +$154
Sports
4% 100% +$225
Crypto
0% 0% -$27
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +6,700 $5,410 72¢ $4.8K -$620 10-27 00:53
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +1,100 $1,082 97¢ $1.1K -$17 10-26 13:24
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +1,020 $786 90¢ $915 +$129 10-27 00:32
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +263 $246 96¢ $252 +$7 10-26 15:42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +295 $199 64¢ $190 -$9 10-23 13:35
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +450 $204 32¢ $144 -$60 10-24 20:11
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +80 $60 78¢ $62 +$3 10-26 10:09
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +50 -$13 92¢ $47 +$60 10-22 21:27
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +50 $22 57¢ $29 +$7 10-24 14:40
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $8 87¢ $9 +$0 10-21 16:29
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +10 $9 69¢ $7 -$2 07-31 22:40
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +10 $3 54¢ $5 +$3 10-01 13:01
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +1 $37 32¢ $0 -$37 10-23 13:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +2 $724 8¢ $0 -$724 10-23 13:32