Realized P&L
-$7.89K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.05K
Hit rate
4.6%
Resolved
3,660
Trades
37,953
lifetime
Volume
$369.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$6.79K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-27 01:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 53 days
Categories
Other
76% 10% -$6,112
Politics
13% 9% -$1,016
Tech
6% 14% -$382
Sports
2% 0% -$61
Crypto
1% 14% -$114
Pop-Culture
1% 10% -$206
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 1366 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +400 $320 98¢ $394 +$73 10-01 10:24
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +400 $371 96¢ $386 +$15 10-19 18:53
next astra model 6pt1 released by october 31 2026 No +441 $293 86¢ $382 +$89 10-15 07:03
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +400 $288 92¢ $370 +$82 09-21 10:33
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +549 $286 66¢ $362 +$76 10-24 13:04
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +364 $271 98¢ $356 +$85 10-10 15:31
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +338 $244 99¢ $333 +$89 10-09 20:52
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +464 $268 71¢ $330 +$62 10-13 13:39
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +300 $171 87¢ $262 +$91 10-06 14:35
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +366 $122 67¢ $245 +$123 09-27 19:33
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? No +225 $197 98¢ $220 +$23 09-21 12:00
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +345 $210 56¢ $195 -$15 10-26 00:23
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +230 $170 84¢ $192 +$22 10-03 13:05
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? No +549 $271 34¢ $186 -$85 10-24 13:04
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +330 $177 54¢ $179 +$2 09-15 19:09
perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916 No +219 $82 82¢ $179 +$97 10-14 17:23
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +240 $216 74¢ $179 -$37 09-19 10:19
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +192 $145 92¢ $176 +$31 09-24 05:54
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +180 $152 96¢ $173 +$22 10-19 17:22
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +200 $168 86¢ $173 +$5 09-23 06:27
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes +280 $188 60¢ $168 -$20 10-17 07:36
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +224 $117 74¢ $167 +$50 10-26 08:41
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +225 $137 70¢ $156 +$20 09-13 04:22
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +330 $155 46¢ $151 -$4 09-15 19:09
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +345 $157 44¢ $150 -$7 10-26 12:07
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +157 $66 96¢ $150 +$84 09-28 03:03
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +150 $130 98¢ $147 +$17 09-29 20:47
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +150 $118 98¢ $146 +$28 09-29 22:50
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +160 $136 92¢ $146 +$11 09-22 17:23
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +200 $116 70¢ $141 +$25 09-22 09:20