Realized P&L
-$8.39K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.55K
Hit rate
4.6%
Resolved
3,809
Trades
39,341
lifetime
Volume
$381.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$7.04K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-28 14:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 54 days
Categories
Other
76% 10% -$6,587
Politics
13% 9% -$1,042
Tech
6% 14% -$382
Sports
3% 2% -$62
Crypto
1% 14% -$114
Pop-Culture
1% 10% -$206
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
49 active days in 12wk • peak 1366 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +549 $286 88¢ $481 +$195 10-24 13:04
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +400 $320 98¢ $393 +$73 10-01 10:24
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +400 $371 96¢ $385 +$14 10-19 18:53
next astra model 6pt1 released by october 31 2026 No +441 $293 86¢ $382 +$89 10-15 07:03
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +400 $288 93¢ $372 +$84 09-21 10:33
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +364 $271 98¢ $356 +$85 10-10 15:31
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +464 $268 72¢ $337 +$69 10-13 13:39
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +338 $244 98¢ $331 +$87 10-09 20:52
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +300 $171 88¢ $264 +$93 10-06 14:35
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +366 $122 66¢ $240 +$118 09-27 19:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +330 $155 68¢ $224 +$69 09-15 19:09
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? No +225 $197 98¢ $221 +$25 09-21 12:00
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +395 $186 55¢ $215 +$29 10-28 07:39
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +224 $117 93¢ $208 +$91 10-26 08:41
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +225 $137 86¢ $195 +$58 09-13 04:22
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +230 $170 82¢ $188 +$19 10-03 13:05
perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916 No +219 $82 82¢ $181 +$99 10-14 17:23
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes +280 $188 64¢ $181 -$7 10-17 07:36
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +395 $235 45¢ $180 -$55 10-28 07:34
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? Yes +240 $216 75¢ $179 -$37 09-19 10:19
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +180 $152 98¢ $176 +$25 10-19 17:22
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +200 $168 86¢ $173 +$5 09-23 06:27
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +192 $145 88¢ $168 +$24 09-24 05:54
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +157 $66 96¢ $152 +$86 09-28 03:03
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +150 $130 98¢ $147 +$17 09-29 20:47
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +150 $118 98¢ $147 +$28 09-29 22:50
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +200 $116 74¢ $147 +$31 09-22 09:20
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +160 $136 91¢ $146 +$10 09-22 17:23
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? No +140 $97 98¢ $137 +$40 09-29 16:17
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? Yes +145 $45 93¢ $134 +$89 10-25 13:37