Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

55.9%

Resolved

168

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$254

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-22

last 10-29 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

89% 57% +$19

Politics

10% 53% -$3

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No		+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	10-29 02:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	2	$4	11	+11	No	-$1	08-19 13:57
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	07-22 14:44
will trump say steel during michigan remarks 20260724162420360	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	07-27 03:12
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-16 08:26
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-15 13:15
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-13 07:25
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	08-27 02:42
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-16 17:08
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of August 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-21 01:30
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	No	-$1	10-23 12:49
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-23 14:52
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-21 21:46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-14 03:26
will trump say china or chinese during remarks at nasa	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	08-27 10:44
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-04 11:16
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-03 19:15
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-20 09:06
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-24 16:32
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-05 23:22
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-26 02:37
will trump say barack hussein obama during remarks in new york 20260811183234695	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-12 23:25
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-09 13:11
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-06 15:24
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-11 22:47
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-06 07:23
will marco rubio say nuclear during fox news my view appearance 20260731183534168	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-01 17:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	07-23 14:50
will ewy dip to 178 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-29 09:58
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-04 19:17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-19 03:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 22:32:24	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfc8f66…
10-29 02:30:55	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xcbbf1a…
10-28 15:56:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x8146ad…
10-27 07:54:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x388b71…
10-26 11:54:06	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf7a800…
10-25 03:52:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc00ee7…
10-24 19:02:03	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xae6f60…
10-23 20:53:18	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xbfa94f…
10-23 12:49:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd650ad…
10-23 12:47:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7e1cd1…
10-22 12:44:47	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x38e956…
10-22 04:44:26	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xe15871…
10-21 20:10:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xdc9f3f…
10-21 11:53:29	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x122469…
10-21 03:53:23	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x8d6be7…
10-18 07:15:23	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe40131…
10-17 23:05:50	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb6f529…
10-17 15:04:54	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe84f31…
10-17 04:16:27	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x40ed20…
10-17 03:47:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x1bf763…
10-16 18:05:41	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x611946…
10-16 07:47:49	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x41e94c…
10-15 23:45:52	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xab48f1…
10-15 14:50:55	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x366916…
10-15 06:47:34	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0fafb8…
10-14 22:42:03	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5ed162…
10-14 14:33:31	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa37603…
10-14 06:31:08	will msft dip to 540 by october 12 2026 from october 13	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x10d60d…
10-13 22:30:00	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x0abebe…
10-13 14:28:19	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd0a72a…
10-13 06:26:15	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x567aa7…
10-12 06:25:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x79e19d…
10-11 22:25:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x03bcb8…
10-11 14:24:46	Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x41d460…
10-11 06:07:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x58e5b3…
10-10 21:30:52	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd57198…
10-10 13:19:51	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4c6013…
10-10 04:21:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe6b127…
10-09 19:26:10	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x6598f0…
10-09 11:15:13	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xbda58a…
10-09 03:14:23	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xdc09fa…
10-08 19:12:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x0ed7e6…
10-08 10:57:21	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb1493b…
10-08 02:57:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb929d9…
10-07 18:03:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8454d0…
10-07 09:46:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x7c4266…
10-07 01:45:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3bb472…
10-06 17:45:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcc2bfe…
10-06 17:44:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7f6be1…
10-06 08:45:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd4b58e…
10-06 00:43:41	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb88703…
10-05 16:42:43	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xcda8e7…
10-05 08:15:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0dc4dd…
10-05 00:12:32	will coin dip to 182 50 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8cb41f…
10-04 15:10:05	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x7dda41…
10-03 20:07:02	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd0d57a…
10-03 07:49:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa98738…
10-02 23:29:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x15064c…
10-02 15:28:24	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x9af644…
10-02 07:17:20	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd79921…
10-01 23:12:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5edb63…
10-01 13:30:33	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x714054…
10-01 05:26:38	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x4c60df…
09-30 21:25:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x03b45c…
09-30 13:12:44	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0cbf9e…
09-30 05:11:45	spy up or down on september 30 2026	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2ad66a…
09-29 21:10:53	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9ae866…
09-28 12:27:56	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x16050b…
09-28 04:27:39	will meta dip to 690 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8b6117…
09-27 19:38:30	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xac3b11…
09-27 09:28:39	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x01fafa…
09-27 00:57:35	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf66210…
09-26 13:29:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd00be7…
09-26 05:29:03	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x220593…
09-25 21:06:59	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe54711…
09-23 23:58:01	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt17 in september	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x1e39eb…
09-23 15:57:43	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x05e960…
09-23 07:42:49	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0x1383d1…
09-22 23:39:49	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0x249fbe…
09-22 23:36:26	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.1M and 7.2M in August?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xe1edb9…
09-22 14:09:37	Will Cracker Barrel say "Tailwind" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0xe69102…
09-20 16:35:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xc734ab…
09-20 07:50:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x9edea3…
09-19 22:51:49	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$1	0x351f1f…
09-19 13:34:35	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x36ef6a…
09-19 05:34:03	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xc905c2…
09-17 20:29:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x272e90…
09-17 12:11:03	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0x274be8…
09-17 03:32:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xf55ee0…
09-16 07:11:19	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0x75f046…
09-15 23:09:48	will warsh say pandemic during september press conference 20260909	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x4d6013…
09-14 13:53:55	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0x11d703…
09-12 15:58:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0x0b09c0…
09-12 07:50:22	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$1	0xb47fb7…
09-10 03:19:46	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x8c5faf…
09-08 18:18:04	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0xcff4d2…
09-08 10:01:25	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$1	0xd3e5bd…
09-08 01:20:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x0205c1…
09-07 16:43:19	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	3	55¢	$1	0xeb79ed…
09-07 08:27:34	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x1ef126…