Realized P&L
-$3.38K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.72K
Hit rate
1.5%
Resolved
1,336
Trades
19,452
lifetime
Volume
$378.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$19.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-23
last 11-09 17:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 44 days
Categories
Other
64% 2% -$2,441
Politics
25% 3% -$601
Tech
6% 0% -$242
Sports
3% 0% -$62
Crypto
1% 12% -$24
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 980 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +1,432 $1,068 92¢ $1.3K +$257 10-11 18:42
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +1,080 $831 90¢ $978 +$146 10-12 09:20
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,510 $646 64¢ $959 +$313 10-11 16:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +1,585 $888 59¢ $942 +$54 10-12 16:52
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? No +887 $738 95¢ $843 +$105 11-06 02:23
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +1,448 $843 55¢ $790 -$53 10-12 17:17
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +948 $573 81¢ $769 +$196 11-07 12:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +985 $646 76¢ $754 +$108 10-12 20:07
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +750 $714 98¢ $734 +$20 10-26 11:43
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +859 $567 84¢ $718 +$150 10-26 01:39
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +777 $622 87¢ $679 +$57 10-11 17:55
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +1,448 $610 45¢ $658 +$47 10-12 17:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,585 $705 41¢ $643 -$62 10-12 16:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +721 $512 86¢ $617 +$105 10-12 18:08
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +790 $491 78¢ $614 +$123 10-19 00:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +815 $478 74¢ $607 +$129 10-25 02:58
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +599 $502 94¢ $563 +$61 10-10 09:43
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,510 $871 36¢ $551 -$320 10-11 16:40
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +614 $486 90¢ $549 +$63 10-21 02:25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +809 $340 66¢ $538 +$198 10-13 18:26
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +590 $478 90¢ $534 +$56 10-14 21:04
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +610 $455 84¢ $512 +$57 10-11 19:39
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +500 $479 97¢ $487 +$8 10-15 13:47
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? Yes +700 $447 69¢ $483 +$36 11-07 21:33
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +500 $451 96¢ $480 +$29 10-11 22:42
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? Yes +734 $583 65¢ $477 -$106 11-06 10:33
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +725 $540 66¢ $476 -$64 10-10 07:18
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +627 $421 72¢ $451 +$30 10-11 17:13
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +662 $468 66¢ $433 -$35 10-28 22:12
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? No +569 $415 75¢ $427 +$12 11-07 16:09