Ultimate-Thermals — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.3%

Resolved

149

Trades

170

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$100

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 10-23 02:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 78% -$16

Other

34% 58% -$2

Sports

15% 24% -$5

Politics

9% 50% -$5

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$351	176	176	+0	No	$0	03-17 03:51
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$342	172	172	+0	No	$0	03-17 04:18
will will zalatoris win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$335	169	169	+0	No	-$1	04-03 05:53
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$335	168	168	+0	No	$0	04-04 09:24
will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	2	$335	168	168	+0	No	$0	03-12 07:57
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$312	157	157	+0	No	$0	03-04 06:38
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$311	156	156	+0	No	$0	03-03 06:50
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	2	$309	155	155	+0	No	$0	04-21 11:47
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$304	152	152	+0	No	$0	03-03 07:16
Will Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$300	150	150	+0	No	$0	04-25 05:17
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$300	150	150	+0	No	$0	05-16 07:06
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$300	151	151	+0	open	—	05-14 05:51
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C or higher on May 4?	2	$296	148	148	+0	No	+$0	05-04 09:04
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$282	141	141	+0	No	$0	05-07 09:45
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$280	140	140	+0	No	$0	05-07 11:11
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$280	140	140	+0	No	$0	05-09 08:29
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	2	$280	141	141	+0	No	$0	05-11 07:44
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	2	$280	141	141	+0	No	$0	05-11 08:17
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$230	116	116	+0	open	—	05-24 07:19
will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on march 16	1	$176	176	0	+176	No	+$0	03-16 12:13
will dear me diane warren relentless win best original song at the 98th academy awards	1	$175	176	0	+176	No	+$1	03-14 11:56
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 13	1	$175	175	0	+175	No	+$0	03-13 06:19
bitcoin above 64k on march 30	1	$175	175	0	+175	Yes	+$1	03-30 11:39
will ethereum dip to 1500 march 2 8	1	$174	175	0	+175	No	+$0	03-08 08:21
will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 6	1	$174	174	0	+174	No	+$0	03-06 06:27
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 10	1	$172	172	0	+172	No	+$0	03-10 04:17
bitcoin above 64k on march 22	1	$172	172	0	+172	Yes	+$0	03-22 07:31
bitcoin above 68k on march 21	1	$171	172	0	+172	Yes	+$1	03-21 09:26
will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on march 17	1	$171	171	0	+171	No	+$0	03-17 04:26
ethereum above 1800 on march 28	1	$170	170	0	+170	Yes	+$0	03-28 09:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 02:15:05	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x7c5c1f…
09-26 23:54:47	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x098e69…
08-14 10:37:55	will nflx dip to 60 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x514b1b…
08-14 10:31:39	ufc mac1 gil 2026 08 15	Mackenzie Dern	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x1cd1cb…
07-18 06:36:42	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x7f8536…
07-18 06:35:54	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x0bc307…
06-01 07:59:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x0129a1…
06-01 07:48:57	Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka	Naomi Osaka	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf6f53b…
05-31 08:10:56	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0x4d3453…
05-31 08:05:39	Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	Atlanta Braves	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x2cdc28…
05-31 07:57:11	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 1?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x57c1bd…
05-29 10:30:10	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in May?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xb11679…
05-29 10:27:03	Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3f978f…
05-28 04:27:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0x3b4ed8…
05-28 04:24:03	Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x49a615…
05-27 08:41:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x66e85f…
05-27 08:27:40	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	BetBoom Team	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0x0431e9…
05-26 12:56:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x8302f9…
05-24 07:26:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x1207ad…
05-24 07:19:40	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0x673d65…
05-24 07:04:30	Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x111c11…
05-24 06:52:41	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0xda43fa…
05-23 12:22:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	1,375	0¢	$6	0xdda2b7…
05-23 12:01:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc85d6a…
05-23 10:28:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$2	0x9203c8…
05-23 07:59:58	Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien	Mariano Navone	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x1589ea…
05-19 12:20:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0x3b8319…
05-19 12:17:28	Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Anouk Koevermans	Anouk Koevermans	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xc48a37…
05-18 12:49:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x4ed5d1…
05-17 07:32:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xd14fd8…
05-16 09:48:47	Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$4	0xc986f6…
05-16 07:40:39	Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	675	0¢	$3	0x58a2c3…
05-16 07:25:38	Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	900	0¢	$2	0xace3f3…
05-16 07:22:53	Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	775	0¢	$3	0x9c2256…
05-16 07:22:04	Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x07633c…
05-16 07:20:32	Will Austria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,050	0¢	$2	0xbfa932…
05-16 07:08:08	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A	Team Liquid	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x439144…
05-16 07:06:25	Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x846b49…
05-16 06:49:10	Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x247665…
05-15 07:13:32	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x8417c7…
05-14 05:54:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	1,800	0¢	$4	0x458c4d…
05-14 05:51:36	Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	151	99¢	$150	0x31622f…
05-14 05:31:37	Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x942e40…
05-14 05:25:01	Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	151	99¢	$150	0x619b3f…
05-12 19:57:11	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 13?	No	BUY	156	94¢	$147	0x75ec4f…
05-12 06:10:26	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0x875ebc…
05-11 08:33:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	147	100¢	$147	0x098795…
05-11 08:22:13	Tunis: Dalibor Svrcina vs Henry Bernet	Henry Bernet	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x36254d…
05-11 08:17:47	Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	141	99¢	$140	0x255165…
05-11 07:47:11	Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$140	0x74d95f…
05-11 07:44:57	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	141	100¢	$140	0x5cb658…
05-11 07:15:45	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$140	0xd33470…
05-10 03:06:04	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xb39fe8…
05-09 08:36:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xd71415…
05-09 08:29:08	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0x226a4f…
05-09 07:41:26	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x11255f…
05-08 03:12:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0x7f21a7…
05-07 11:23:05	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xc4cdf0…
05-07 11:11:27	Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	140	100¢	$140	0xbaab77…
05-07 09:47:25	Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xbaebcd…
05-07 09:45:05	Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	141	100¢	$141	0xbde3de…
05-07 09:33:51	Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs	Team Heretics	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xdcadf9…
05-07 09:25:17	Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0xcbf69d…
05-05 07:01:20	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 5?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0xfd27da…
05-04 09:09:32	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 4?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x175d1e…
05-04 09:04:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C or higher on May 4?	No	SELL	148	100¢	$148	0x17e0aa…
05-03 09:21:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C or higher on May 4?	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0xab59b2…
05-02 07:34:50	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	147	100¢	$146	0x6d69d2…
05-01 10:38:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$152	0x10f066…
04-30 08:05:06	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x927d9f…
04-29 03:31:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x4e6156…
04-27 05:45:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 27?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x60474e…
04-26 05:43:42	Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Zeynep Sonmez	Solana Sierra	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x715edf…
04-25 05:20:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0xe7c094…
04-25 05:18:20	Madrid Open: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruud	Jaume Munar	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x1dddd1…
04-25 05:17:18	Will Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x0b8cbf…
04-25 04:32:30	Will Katie Boulter win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xcff390…
04-24 12:19:12	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x6ed213…
04-24 11:54:30	LoL: Colossal Gaming vs EKO Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs	EKO Esports	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x63537a…
04-22 12:05:48	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	Yes	BUY	730	0¢	$2	0x361bed…
04-21 11:55:32	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 21	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x2649fb…
04-21 11:47:28	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	155	100¢	$155	0xa7c75c…
04-21 11:28:00	Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x8a8175…
04-20 09:42:22	ethereum above 2500 on april 20	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x6d1eb7…
04-20 09:38:12	Rome: Alex Barrena vs Gianluca Cadenasso	Gianluca Cadenasso	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xaa9917…
04-19 08:06:32	ethereum above 2500 on april 19	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0xdd031f…
04-17 08:58:40	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 17	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xd3640b…
04-17 08:55:56	ethereum above 2600 on april 17	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3a7bc1…
04-17 07:17:30	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	No	BUY	1,650	0¢	$3	0xc3c65b…
04-17 06:10:32	will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on april 17	Yes	BUY	875	0¢	$2	0x1af364…
04-17 06:08:14	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 380 399	Yes	BUY	1,167	0¢	$4	0x098cea…
04-15 07:42:30	elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 115 139	No	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0x474060…
04-14 05:43:15	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	No	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0xbd887c…
04-13 01:16:55	bitcoin above 66k on april 13	Yes	BUY	162	100¢	$161	0xe9640c…
04-11 03:55:11	bitcoin above 78k on april 11	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x915901…
04-10 06:43:11	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x6160fd…
04-09 10:29:37	ethereum above 2000 on april 9	No	BUY	852	0¢	$4	0xd2d7cd…
04-09 10:26:03	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 9	Yes	BUY	625	0¢	$1	0xb9ba7c…
04-08 11:27:35	bitcoin above 66k on april 8	Yes	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x91c6fc…
04-08 11:17:43	atp cobolli blockx 2026 04 08	Alexander Blockx	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x22eec6…