Instructive-Gumshoe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$43

Unrealized P&L

+$93

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

400

lifetime

Volume

$319.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$799

Open exposure

$2.03K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 04:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% — —

Other

42% 100% +$39

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$3

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+2,214	$1,933	92¢	$2.0K	+$93	07-05 00:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	77	$29.8K	15,987	14,110	+1,876	Yes	+$39	05-03 16:26
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	48	$18.8K	10,817	8,100	+2,717	open	—	05-27 16:20
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$14.0K	7,100	7,071	+29	open	—	05-20 07:40
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	10	$10.7K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	07-05 00:40
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	3	$9.8K	6,622	3,230	+3,392	open	—	04-29 23:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	4	$7.4K	3,700	3,700	+0	open	—	06-26 01:06
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A	19	$6.8K	3,400	3,400	+0	open	—	05-03 16:04
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$3.8K	3,784	0	+3,784	open	—	07-22 04:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	1	$3.7K	3,700	0	+3,700	open	—	06-17 12:34
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	1	$3.7K	3,687	0	+3,687	open	—	06-07 20:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$3.6K	3,682	0	+3,682	open	—	06-02 10:53
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 0pt5	1	$3.6K	3,600	0	+3,600	open	—	06-13 22:56
Trump kiss by May 31?	1	$3.6K	3,569	0	+3,569	open	—	05-21 04:10
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$3.5K	3,500	0	+3,500	open	—	05-15 11:10
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	5	$3.5K	3,497	0	+3,497	open	—	05-15 19:19
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	10	$3.4K	3,401	0	+3,401	open	—	06-09 18:38
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$3.4K	3,401	0	+3,401	open	—	05-01 22:04
Will Trump dance today?	7	$3.3K	3,361	0	+3,361	open	—	04-27 13:20
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$3.3K	3,330	0	+3,330	open	—	04-16 19:56
another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	1	$3.3K	3,316	0	+3,316	open	—	04-29 12:03
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	17	$3.3K	3,316	0	+3,316	open	—	04-12 11:30
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	5	$3.3K	3,263	0	+3,263	open	—	04-11 18:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$3.2K	3,253	0	+3,253	open	—	04-09 11:17
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	6	$3.2K	3,246	0	+3,246	open	—	04-06 07:10
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$3.2K	3,237	0	+3,237	open	—	03-31 06:14
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	5	$3.2K	3,200	0	+3,200	open	—	05-15 08:37
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$3.2K	3,230	0	+3,230	open	—	03-22 09:37
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	2	$3.1K	3,165	0	+3,165	open	—	03-18 11:20
russia strike impacts kyiv municipality during week of march 2 2026	2	$3.1K	3,143	0	+3,143	open	—	03-13 09:54
us strikes iraq by march 7	1	$3.1K	3,140	0	+3,140	open	—	03-10 04:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 04:05:30	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3,784	100¢	$3,780	0xc35165…
07-05 00:40:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	786	90¢	$707	0xa5c82c…
07-03 23:32:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	786	89¢	$699	0xbab186…
07-03 23:25:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x8844d8…
07-03 23:24:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	91	89¢	$81	0x6b573d…
07-03 23:24:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,024	89¢	$1,801	0xf3331d…
07-03 18:26:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,000	89¢	$2,670	0x810523…
07-03 11:16:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,186	88¢	$1,043	0xc3fc31…
07-03 11:12:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,814	88¢	$1,597	0xbd8f0d…
06-26 01:06:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	3,700	100¢	$3,693	0xb22783…
06-25 22:04:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	2,995	100¢	$2,989	0x05e4e6…
06-25 22:02:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd23bc4…
06-25 21:47:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	700	100¢	$698	0x7717dd…
06-17 12:34:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3,700	100¢	$3,696	0x3a1a24…
06-13 22:56:13	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	3,600	100¢	$3,596	0xbdb140…
06-12 21:19:42	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb32618…
06-12 20:48:09	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x45f430…
06-12 20:29:15	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	72	100¢	$72	0x578b1f…
06-12 20:24:57	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0x07f2f9…
06-12 20:14:58	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	1,666	100¢	$1,664	0x5eaf2b…
06-09 18:38:22	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	198	100¢	$198	0x10ec8c…
06-09 18:26:25	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0fdcdd…
06-09 18:07:00	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xa6e61a…
06-09 18:03:45	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x3d9d58…
06-09 17:58:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x4c74c4…
06-09 17:51:34	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xaab142…
06-09 17:51:06	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa5fb1f…
06-09 17:51:03	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	52	100¢	$51	0x35d2cf…
06-09 17:27:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x704b24…
06-09 17:20:30	will a claude mythos model be released by june 12 2026 762 968	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x538f70…
06-09 17:16:52	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0x154db2…
06-07 20:26:01	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	3,687	100¢	$3,683	0x0a5aac…
06-04 15:57:37	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xbea72b…
06-04 15:19:40	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x3aca6c…
06-04 14:53:06	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x17d228…
06-04 14:51:21	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x39deb8…
06-04 14:36:12	cs2 tyloo shk 2026 06 04 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	247	100¢	$246	0x74ab64…
06-02 10:53:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,682	99¢	$3,641	0xdc5adf…
05-27 16:20:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	429	100¢	$427	0x60574d…
05-27 16:20:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,250	100¢	$1,245	0x0aa816…
05-27 16:18:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xca656d…
05-27 16:18:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x7a637e…
05-27 16:18:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,195	0xfeea1c…
05-27 16:16:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	700	100¢	$697	0x7213f1…
05-27 16:12:07	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,139	99¢	$1,132	0xb52b17…
05-27 16:08:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	175	99¢	$174	0x51a012…
05-27 16:03:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1777d0…
05-27 16:01:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x21269b…
05-27 16:01:00	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,139	99¢	$1,131	0xb29288…
05-27 15:53:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,100	99¢	$1,093	0x96b5d8…
05-27 15:49:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc5a717…
05-27 15:49:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa6ff21…
05-27 15:49:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7dbc94…
05-27 15:49:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7a1724…
05-27 15:49:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x4b1313…
05-27 15:49:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x08df51…
05-27 15:27:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	133	99¢	$132	0xdc25b5…
05-27 15:26:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	750	99¢	$745	0x69c993…
05-27 15:25:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x706f09…
05-27 15:25:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	307	99¢	$305	0x1bf49a…
05-27 15:22:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	252	99¢	$250	0x158865…
05-27 15:12:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	243	99¢	$241	0xe7ff18…
05-27 15:11:11	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x97e997…
05-27 15:06:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x325f6f…
05-27 15:05:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	294	99¢	$292	0xd27094…
05-27 14:59:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	396	99¢	$394	0xa04f75…
05-27 14:37:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	135	99¢	$134	0xb039bb…
05-27 14:25:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x6b9e5c…
05-27 14:25:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0xda3197…
05-27 13:52:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	456	99¢	$452	0x6cda85…
05-27 13:40:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	230	99¢	$228	0x5ad935…
05-27 13:12:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	71	100¢	$70	0x07cd03…
05-27 13:11:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	377	100¢	$376	0xe1def8…
05-27 12:52:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x31c2bf…
05-27 12:51:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	240	99¢	$238	0x40efe7…
05-27 12:45:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x96e65a…
05-27 12:44:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0xfe7393…
05-27 12:40:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	254	99¢	$252	0x03fe28…
05-27 12:37:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xda642b…
05-27 12:35:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$33	0x20ed2e…
05-27 12:35:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	169	100¢	$168	0xb285af…
05-27 12:29:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	3,300	99¢	$3,274	0x068485…
05-27 12:24:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	2,478	99¢	$2,463	0xd07740…
05-27 12:24:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	864	99¢	$859	0xd202d1…
05-27 12:20:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	199	99¢	$197	0xccba95…
05-27 12:19:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0x4de35a…
05-21 04:10:55	Trump kiss by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,569	100¢	$3,565	0x8ea5aa…
05-20 07:40:27	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3,571	100¢	$3,561	0x984994…
05-17 13:17:05	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xb319c9…
05-17 11:10:47	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3,571	97¢	$3,471	0x3f7973…
05-15 19:19:21	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x99a095…
05-15 19:19:21	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	BUY	660	100¢	$658	0x79df52…
05-15 19:19:21	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	BUY	394	100¢	$393	0x525953…
05-15 19:19:21	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$399	0x266393…
05-15 19:19:21	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x1a52cf…
05-15 17:53:40	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	3,499	100¢	$3,485	0x695ff4…
05-15 17:29:45	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc45dae…
05-15 17:12:02	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	3,500	100¢	$3,496	0x41c00a…
05-15 11:10:42	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	259	100¢	$259	0x433a92…
05-15 11:06:23	Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x9ab042…