Thrifty-Representative — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$648

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

90.0%

Resolved

387

Trades

857

lifetime

Volume

$43.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 10:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Other

48% 82% +$80

Politics

48% 81% -$736

Sports

4% 100% +$9

Crypto

0% 67% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No		-17	-$16	96¢	$-16	$0	06-06 17:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel strike gaza on february 18 2026	2	$1.2K	609	609	+0	No	+$16	02-21 04:04
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026?	2	$1.1K	1,089	0	+1,089	Yes	+$2	06-27 10:28
will trumps approval rating be between 41pt0 and 41pt4 on january 30 2026	10	$983	497	497	+0	Yes	+$9	01-31 16:01
Will Trump's approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on July 10, 2026?	2	$663	664	0	+664	No	+$1	07-11 08:18
will trumps approval rating be between 41pt5 and 41pt9 on february 20 2026	3	$609	630	20	+610	Yes	+$2	02-21 04:05
will russia strike kyiv on february 15 2026	1	$605	606	0	+606	No	+$1	02-16 07:36
will trumps approval rating be less than 40pt5 on february 13 2026	4	$597	601	6	+595	No	+$10	02-14 04:14
will israel strike lebanon on february 21 2026	3	$590	595	0	+595	No	+$5	02-24 08:27
will trump say epic fury this week 20260731171342115	1	$590	591	0	+591	No	+$1	08-10 05:21
will russia enter kurylivka by february 28	1	$562	585	0	+585	Yes	+$23	02-10 00:57
will trump say anarchist this week february 8	3	$537	539	0	+539	No	+$1	02-09 07:41
will trump say jesus this week march 8	28	$530	1,018	1,018	+0	Yes	-$509	03-09 15:01
will ilhan omar be charged with fraud	3	$529	512	23	+489	No	+$5	01-31 16:01
will trumps approval rating be between 41pt5 and 41pt9 on february 6 2026	6	$524	558	0	+558	Yes	+$34	02-07 08:05
will trump say winter olympic or winter olympics this week february 22	3	$523	529	0	+529	No	+$5	02-23 04:03
will russia strike kyiv on february 22 2026	5	$506	510	8	+502	No	-$4	02-25 09:09
will trump say olympics this week february 15	1	$501	502	0	+502	No	+$1	02-16 04:07
will russia strike kyiv on february 13 2026	1	$500	502	0	+502	No	+$2	02-14 19:06
will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	2	$485	485	0	+485	No	+$0	02-11 07:02
will israel strike gaza on february 28 2026	1	$440	441	0	+441	No	+$1	03-03 06:44
trump approval up or down this week 596	5	$423	438	23	+415	Down	+$6	03-07 04:09
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	1	$400	401	0	+401	No	+$1	02-01 09:04
will russia strike kyiv on february 16 2026	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	02-18 09:03
will united arab emirates record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 743	1	$395	395	0	+395	No	+$0	02-21 19:04
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 23, 2026?	2	$392	434	0	+434	Yes	+$42	10-21 09:44
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.0 on August 14, 2026?	3	$388	390	0	+390	No	+$3	08-14 00:38
will trumps approval rating be less than 40pt0 on february 6 2026	2	$379	191	191	+0	No	-$1	02-07 05:06
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on July 3, 2026?	1	$375	375	0	+375	No	+$0	07-04 03:10
ukraine hits moscow by february 28 2026	2	$363	367	0	+367	No	+$4	03-01 09:18
will trump say uranium this week 20260719005322450	5	$354	357	0	+357	No	+$3	07-27 04:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 10:24:19	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x0aa9a0…
10-30 10:23:28	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xf2400f…
10-30 10:23:18	Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xb8747b…
10-30 10:15:07	Will Trump say "Weave" in October?	No	BUY	38	93¢	$35	0xc2c478…
10-30 10:13:01	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x1daf62…
10-27 09:47:18	Will Trump say "Pirate" this week?	No	BUY	99	77¢	$77	0xe5b8ac…
10-27 09:45:23	Will Trump say "Athlete" or "Athletic" this week?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xf64fac…
10-27 09:42:33	Will Trump say "Trump Ocean" or "Trump Strait" this week?	No	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0xa87190…
10-27 09:38:54	Will Trump say "Ranked Choice" this week?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xc43c04…
10-26 10:48:09	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 41.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x878ef1…
10-26 10:47:06	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x606aef…
10-26 10:45:12	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	9¢	$4	0x2e5862…
10-25 21:21:15	Will Trump say "Vanilla" or "Ice Cream" this week?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1020cb…
10-25 21:20:57	Will Trump say "Allah" this week?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0xfeb2f5…
10-25 21:20:30	Will Trump say "Flying Car" or "Roadster" this week?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xbe84e0…
10-25 21:19:23	Will Trump say "Four More Years" this week?	No	BUY	54	98¢	$53	0x5f4ab0…
10-25 16:26:12	Will Trump say "Pirate" this week?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x3373c5…
10-25 16:25:38	Will Trump say "Apple" this week?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x74efeb…
10-25 16:24:45	Will Trump say "Good Looking" this week?	No	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x8659fe…
10-25 16:24:08	Will Trump say "Death To America" this week?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x7c4c4c…
10-25 16:22:38	Will Trump say "Ranked Choice" this week?	No	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xcd2758…
10-25 16:18:41	Will Trump say "Trump Ocean" or "Trump Strait" this week?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xaa2a7d…
10-25 16:17:48	Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Uranium" this week?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3f9fc7…
10-25 11:59:44	Will Trump say "Allah" this week?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xc8db57…
10-25 10:33:30	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?	No	BUY	37	93¢	$34	0xae62d1…
10-24 11:39:08	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 41.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x5e82a4…
10-24 11:38:47	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xe19ac7…
10-24 11:38:26	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x3adb6a…
10-24 11:36:57	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0x000a2c…
10-24 11:35:59	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	80¢	$72	0x819afa…
10-24 11:34:29	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x651ed3…
10-24 11:03:29	Will Trump say "Strategic" or "Strategy" this week?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x37293c…
10-22 09:45:03	Will Trump say "Allah" this week?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x8ac033…
10-22 08:36:47	Will Trump say "Allah" this week?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xd49a1f…
10-21 10:04:32	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x2ca31a…
10-21 10:04:24	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6b45d8…
10-21 09:49:06	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	66	95¢	$63	0x6740d6…
10-21 09:45:29	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0xa1daeb…
10-21 09:44:38	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xc03e4f…
10-21 09:19:45	Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	No	BUY	70	75¢	$52	0x1b39f6…
10-20 22:22:15	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xea090c…
10-20 15:53:38	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x278c24…
10-20 15:53:32	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xe7c05f…
10-20 15:53:24	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x030b83…
10-20 15:53:12	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xe22556…
10-20 15:52:56	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xac83c2…
10-20 08:15:58	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	334	89¢	$297	0x73b2c7…
10-19 10:06:57	Will Trump say "Strategic" or "Strategy" this week?	No	BUY	120	49¢	$59	0xc1298e…
10-18 07:03:57	Will Trump say "Third Term" this week?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x1c0500…
10-18 06:16:17	Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?	No	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x9bbc4e…
10-16 15:41:03	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x2ab384…
10-14 03:52:46	Will Trump say "Waitress" this week?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xb2598a…
10-13 18:26:52	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x6a8651…
10-13 09:36:08	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.8 and 37.9 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	88	92¢	$80	0xb155d7…
10-13 09:14:58	Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.1 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0x74cbe1…
10-13 09:12:37	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$1	0x1bf2a7…
10-13 09:02:58	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xe8b9bc…
10-13 09:02:58	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x113ae9…
10-13 09:02:02	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xa49c49…
10-13 09:01:25	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x8ca931…
10-13 08:42:17	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	10¢	$6	0xcd6db5…
10-13 08:39:28	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xa41241…
10-13 08:32:14	Will Trump say "Osama Bin Laden" this week?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xaba682…
10-13 08:32:05	Will Trump say "Osama Bin Laden" this week?	No	BUY	188	69¢	$130	0x63a248…
10-13 08:30:58	Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.8 and 37.9 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xfbd103…
10-13 08:29:05	Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xa9b3c8…
10-13 08:27:10	Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.1 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x2e83b9…
10-13 08:27:05	Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week?	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x9af636…
10-13 08:26:53	Will Trump say "Mardi Gras" this week?	No	BUY	288	49¢	$140	0x057b64…
10-13 08:14:23	Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7b0d0a…
10-13 08:13:55	Will Trump say "Dad" or "Daddy" this week?	No	BUY	158	63¢	$100	0x106d9c…
10-13 08:10:44	Will Trump say "Waitress" this week?	No	BUY	111	81¢	$90	0x0e6f5b…
10-13 07:46:22	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc23d41…
10-13 07:46:11	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x809bdf…
10-12 15:37:21	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	SELL	144	17¢	$25	0xcbf1da…
10-12 10:07:52	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x587c65…
10-12 10:02:31	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xb9d6ca…
10-12 10:01:52	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x7672a5…
10-12 10:01:32	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x3fa573…
10-12 09:51:19	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	82	44¢	$36	0x8ca664…
10-11 17:01:16	Will Trump say "Plumber" this week?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x7eeb54…
10-11 17:01:03	Will Trump say "Plumber" this week?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x9c6893…
10-11 14:59:24	Will Trump say "Too Late" this week?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x2086df…
10-11 07:57:42	Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" this week?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x64ce94…
10-11 03:01:29	UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)	Brendan Allen	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf84e0d…
10-11 02:27:00	UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)	Brendan Allen	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8c0454…
10-11 02:16:51	UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)	Christian Leroy Duncan	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x13f69d…
10-11 02:15:57	UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)	Christian Leroy Duncan	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x29445a…
10-11 01:44:05	UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)	Matheus Camilo	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x439031…
10-11 01:39:15	UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)	Matheus Camilo	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xbf0c82…
10-11 01:34:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kamala Harris by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x2a7ed8…
10-11 01:06:26	Will Trump say "Plumber" this week?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0xc44d75…
10-11 01:04:34	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xded889…
10-11 01:04:16	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x63895f…
10-11 01:03:52	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xda3ff7…
10-11 00:42:30	Will Trump say "Too Late" this week?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe47189…
10-11 00:42:19	Will Trump say "Too Late" this week?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xfd4b15…
10-11 00:41:27	Will Trump say "Gay" this week?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xb088f1…
10-11 00:38:31	Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" this week?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xdaf12e…
10-11 00:38:15	Will Trump say "Gay" this week?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xea474e…