Insubstantial-Coffee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$85.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$926

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

1,739

Trades

20,363

lifetime

Volume

$1.52M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

$780

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-30 08:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 190 days

Categories

Other

85% 58% +$74,344

Politics

14% 57% +$11,590

Crypto

1% 75% -$377

Tech

0% 17% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 760 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+2,000	$282	28¢	$560	+$278	10-10 10:41
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	+119	$108	100¢	$118	+$10	08-26 01:44
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+1,335	-$820	6¢	$86	+$906	10-26 12:35
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1,832	$391	0¢	$7	-$384	10-06 13:09
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+1,146	-$178	0¢	$5	+$183	10-06 13:09
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+220	$71	2¢	$4	-$67	09-06 17:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	138	$49.1K	65,355	59,755	+5,600	Yes	+$19,025	09-20 16:30
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	121	$21.8K	25,945	17,655	+8,289	No	-$1,039	09-20 15:14
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	65	$18.9K	9,646	10,000	-354	No	+$21	03-02 22:17
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$17.3K	17,500	0	+17,500	No	+$175	06-03 14:45
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	37	$14.9K	18,500	15,958	+2,542	No	-$5,537	03-09 00:45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	46	$14.2K	10,000	10,503	-503	Yes	+$158	01-07 05:57
tpg quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 09 2026 0pt68	13	$13.1K	11,191	2,000	+9,191	No	+$39	02-05 18:58
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$13.0K	8,500	4,500	+4,000	No	+$12	01-03 21:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	12	$13.0K	9,443	7,876	+1,567	Yes	-$604	01-06 02:31
qcom quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 2pt23	17	$11.8K	11,820	4,045	+7,775	No	-$5,808	07-29 19:36
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	39	$11.7K	6,860	6,860	+0	No	+$462	01-13 13:47
ebay quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 1pt51	24	$10.0K	6,737	6,306	+431	Yes	+$216	08-05 20:05
jnj quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 21 2026 2pt51	57	$9.7K	6,151	7,477	-1,327	No	+$403	01-21 14:48
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?	39	$9.6K	7,169	6,465	+704	Yes	+$1,633	08-30 00:42
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	79	$9.4K	18,291	12,615	+5,676	No	+$218	09-20 15:49
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	9	$8.6K	6,940	3,000	+3,940	Yes	-$2,657	01-21 10:31
will canvas valuation hit low 39 by july 31 20260629184737588	29	$8.2K	5,140	4,468	+672	No	+$512	08-01 17:03
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?	8	$8.2K	4,100	4,100	+0	No	+$0	07-01 20:13
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	51	$7.4K	24,915	23,656	+1,260	No	-$2,496	03-09 16:28
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	72	$7.4K	8,784	8,044	+740	No	+$588	09-01 12:15
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	82	$7.3K	9,929	10,222	-293	No	-$101	03-22 19:55
dis quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 05 2026 1pt86	15	$7.0K	4,539	3,627	+912	Yes	+$368	07-26 19:54
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	86	$7.0K	9,390	8,542	+848	Yes	+$784	03-08 21:33
vz quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 30 2026 1pt05	4	$6.9K	6,976	0	+6,976	Yes	+$37	01-30 12:56
will krakens valuation hit high 13 by july 31 20260629184742672	22	$6.5K	3,786	3,762	+24	No	+$182	07-11 09:35
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	22	$6.4K	10,391	10,391	+0	Under	+$3,220	09-20 17:39
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?	19	$6.3K	3,870	3,870	+0	Yes	+$464	07-01 20:13
foxa quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 06 2026 1pt38	12	$6.2K	5,087	1,955	+3,132	Yes	+$518	08-05 19:40
tfc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 21 2026 1pt1	20	$6.1K	3,231	3,616	-385	Yes	+$11	01-21 14:27
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?	33	$6.1K	6,142	2,006	+4,137	Yes	+$1,620	05-07 15:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 08:50:34	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	222	29¢	$63	0x59ea03…
10-30 08:50:28	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	12	30¢	$4	0x040a32…
10-30 08:50:24	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	BUY	841	25¢	$214	0xf3e086…
10-30 08:49:09	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	329	70¢	$230	0x0a49a9…
10-30 08:46:55	Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x8473d1…
10-29 19:06:52	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xc87e34…
10-29 17:20:19	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x4ed880…
10-29 15:22:40	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0xc451cc…
10-29 15:22:22	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	181	78¢	$141	0x3957f1…
10-29 15:17:29	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xad0566…
10-29 15:06:37	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	400	83¢	$332	0xaee4a0…
10-29 14:59:17	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	147	85¢	$124	0xc58744…
10-29 14:56:34	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	385	85¢	$328	0x19b37b…
10-29 14:28:19	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$12	0x61c756…
10-29 14:27:11	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?	Yes	BUY	368	13¢	$49	0xbe9a42…
10-29 14:25:56	Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	352	86¢	$302	0xa24e87…
10-29 14:17:34	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	Yes	SELL	156	42¢	$65	0x77a7e4…
10-29 14:17:28	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 85% and 87.5%?	Yes	BUY	80	44¢	$35	0x914030…
10-29 07:56:10	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	SELL	180	37¢	$67	0x10055e…
10-29 00:54:49	Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 0.5% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xbeb319…
10-29 00:43:20	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	Yes	BUY	345	36¢	$126	0x0801fa…
10-29 00:41:46	Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	173	65¢	$112	0xe29e86…
10-29 00:41:05	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	338	64¢	$218	0x3c4016…
10-28 23:44:17	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	Yes	SELL	414	62¢	$256	0x680bad…
10-28 19:18:40	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	16	59¢	$9	0x296986…
10-28 17:11:58	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x61278c…
10-28 16:48:01	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	No	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x9985d4…
10-28 14:41:34	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x8cb34d…
10-28 14:41:31	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x2d9eba…
10-28 14:19:05	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x443c52…
10-28 14:18:58	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xc5b77d…
10-28 14:14:16	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x3e316d…
10-28 14:11:25	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	67	20¢	$13	0x497259…
10-28 13:45:26	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	BUY	70	44¢	$31	0x03ef09…
10-28 13:41:37	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x3bb21a…
10-28 13:33:04	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x60ef1b…
10-28 13:31:52	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x7efecf…
10-28 13:26:26	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	Yes	SELL	535	45¢	$239	0x9dcd44…
10-28 13:25:04	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xe4400b…
10-28 13:24:34	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	207	59¢	$122	0xa5601f…
10-28 13:22:56	Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	326	51¢	$165	0xbb2752…
10-28 13:21:14	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	16	34¢	$5	0x84e8f7…
10-28 13:19:04	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x8c10ea…
10-28 13:19:01	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	BUY	13	44¢	$6	0xc274c1…
10-28 13:11:26	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	545	59¢	$321	0x08215f…
10-28 13:06:32	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0xe4c303…
10-28 13:06:04	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x42db54…
10-28 13:05:53	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xf5440b…
10-28 13:05:44	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x61d89c…
10-28 13:05:25	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x74e661…
10-28 13:05:20	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0xf1b02e…
10-28 13:05:14	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	148	34¢	$50	0x11ce03…
10-28 13:04:32	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x9cbce8…
10-28 13:04:29	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xf16e4b…
10-28 13:04:29	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x6e143c…
10-28 13:04:29	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x1c103e…
10-28 13:04:28	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xe73194…
10-28 13:03:59	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xcadd4b…
10-28 13:03:31	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x226250…
10-28 13:03:08	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be between 3% and 5%?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xad120c…
10-28 09:55:04	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	192	35¢	$67	0x7d2ad5…
10-28 05:30:59	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x2be1b0…
10-28 02:39:50	Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be below 0%?	No	SELL	81	88¢	$72	0x8dc02f…
10-28 01:54:39	Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 0.5% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0xa375fe…
10-28 01:41:54	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xb2d56e…
10-28 01:02:18	Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 46% to 48%?	Yes	BUY	55	50¢	$27	0x445c24…
10-28 01:00:27	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	Yes	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x2d6010…
10-28 00:54:39	Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 0.5% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	358	50¢	$179	0x9c2a86…
10-28 00:17:00	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	No	BUY	80	37¢	$30	0x8bbcb7…
10-28 00:16:45	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x807a2f…
10-27 23:23:12	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	No	BUY	129	56¢	$72	0x43337a…
10-27 23:06:54	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xda765b…
10-27 22:13:59	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	37	35¢	$13	0x502fca…
10-27 22:13:59	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	No	BUY	61	56¢	$34	0x3edfb2…
10-27 22:03:41	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$5	0x935eaa…
10-27 21:01:23	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x7934d9…
10-27 20:55:23	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x670bd2…
10-27 15:34:03	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	Yes	BUY	80	43¢	$35	0x97eb39…
10-27 15:01:17	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xb307dd…
10-27 14:43:36	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x69c056…
10-27 14:11:27	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xd47b0b…
10-27 14:05:30	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x844b00…
10-27 13:57:06	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	77	35¢	$27	0xd7c423…
10-27 13:23:26	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x748e2e…
10-27 13:01:11	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 7% to 9%?	Yes	BUY	530	51¢	$269	0xc103e3…
10-27 12:59:44	Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	332	58¢	$191	0xaa47a2…
10-27 12:58:20	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	270	99¢	$267	0xb49575…
10-27 12:57:23	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xccfae5…
10-27 12:56:02	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	Yes	BUY	68	26¢	$18	0x074cee…
10-27 12:55:09	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	Yes	BUY	455	53¢	$239	0x5c8630…
10-27 12:54:00	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?	Yes	BUY	856	36¢	$310	0xc9cc75…
10-27 12:48:15	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	80	48¢	$39	0x876e2f…
10-27 12:42:11	Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	256	42¢	$108	0xd19bce…
10-27 12:39:48	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0xf6a4a1…
10-27 12:39:26	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 90% and 92.5%?	Yes	BUY	114	2¢	$2	0xef627b…
10-27 12:38:56	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	Yes	BUY	828	20¢	$162	0x75aa7a…
10-27 12:04:36	Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	271	81¢	$219	0xc7c7f8…
10-27 12:04:36	Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	45	76¢	$34	0xc23f23…
10-27 02:00:18	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	502	62¢	$313	0x1420ca…
10-26 22:07:15	Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 10.5%+?	Yes	BUY	31	19¢	$6	0x91c291…