Grounded-Diplomacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$50

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

29.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$157

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$21

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 05-07 10:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 60% $-50

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	05-07 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	+10	$10	88¢	$9	$-1	05-07 09:54
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	$-0	05-06 18:18
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	+3	$1	28¢	$1	$-0	05-06 18:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 10:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x844c67…
05-07 09:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x5c0a61…
05-07 08:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xe7d4dc…
05-07 07:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3d5d74…
05-07 07:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb1c3f0…
05-07 07:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd3fadf…
05-07 07:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x500968…
05-07 07:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x63c621…
05-07 06:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x03761a…
05-07 06:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x09cc07…
05-07 05:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xcae0d6…
05-06 18:18:19	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcec715…
05-06 18:06:55	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3c3e0c…
05-06 09:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x95127d…
05-05 11:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x9a3b2a…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	12	$13.2K	147	05-07 10:04
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	12	$4.30K	117	05-07 10:04
Impossible-Bolt 0xc905…b394	10	$1.58K	17	05-07 10:03
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	10	$942	41	05-07 10:04
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	9	$1.13K	114	05-07 10:04
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	8	$1.96K	37	05-07 10:03
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	8	$656	33	05-07 10:04
Svelte-Chicory 0x9412…0cd0	8	$545	13	05-07 10:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	1	$50	53	0	+53	Up	$-50	05-07 05:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-07 07:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-07 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-07 07:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-07 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-07 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-07 07:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	05-07 06:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-07 09:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	05-07 06:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-07 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	1	$3	0	5	-5	Down	$-2	05-05 11:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	1	$2	0	5	-5	Down	+$2	05-06 09:00
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-06 18:06
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	05-06 18:18