Rural-Graffiti — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$200

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

149

Trades

1,237

lifetime

Volume

$9.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 07-17 11:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

52% 56% +$55

Tech

30% 39% -$239

Politics

15% 50% +$21

Sports

2% 36% -$37

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-17).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	40	$474	424	424	+0	No	+$48	07-07 00:11
gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	67	$438	1,020	1,020	+0	Yes	-$95	07-09 06:43
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	82	$430	3,495	3,495	+0	Yes	-$84	07-09 11:41
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?	58	$390	1,062	1,062	+0	No	-$20	06-30 15:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	68	$383	1,113	1,112	+0	No	+$6	07-13 15:18
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	2	$298	150	150	+0	No	+$0	06-27 06:23
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?	14	$248	200	200	+0	Yes	+$63	06-30 15:16
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	15	$211	157	157	+0	Yes	+$21	06-27 14:12
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	23	$196	592	592	+0	No	-$74	06-30 21:39
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title	7	$194	136	136	+0	Yes	+$9	07-01 03:41
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	9	$186	186	183	+3	Yes	-$5	07-08 16:45
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	24	$182	708	383	+325	No	-$6	07-02 09:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	17	$177	282	132	+150	No	+$8	06-27 06:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	13	$170	125	125	+0	Yes	+$14	06-07 01:38
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	7	$141	78	78	+0	No	+$4	05-31 10:30
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	12	$137	84	84	+0	Yes	+$4	06-28 21:26
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	14	$128	352	352	+0	No	+$0	06-30 21:56
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	16	$128	83	83	+0	Yes	-$1	06-29 11:38
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	3	$125	70	70	+0	Yes	+$12	07-04 23:02
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	5	$119	73	73	+0	Yes	+$11	05-02 07:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$112	70	70	+0	No	+$10	05-14 08:57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	20	$111	147	147	-0	Yes	-$11	06-28 22:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$110	70	70	+0	No	+$9	05-23 13:08
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	19	$110	149	149	+0	No	+$29	07-06 17:53
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	15	$108	395	53	+342	Yes	-$53	06-09 16:12
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	18	$104	357	355	+1	No	+$8	07-09 09:45
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	14	$98	97	97	+0	Yes	+$14	06-30 16:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$96	80	80	+0	No	-$16	06-13 19:15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	9	$96	277	277	+0	No	+$14	07-06 09:39
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	11	$92	90	90	+0	No	-$9	07-05 09:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 11:48:15	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xcabf46…
07-15 22:53:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xf420b0…
07-15 22:53:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xa4274c…
07-15 21:58:26	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x740520…
07-15 15:28:34	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x701303…
07-14 14:42:41	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0xc31885…
07-14 02:47:41	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	SELL	11	43¢	$5	0x1426f9…
07-13 22:02:52	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	23	3¢	$1	0x66df12…
07-13 17:56:32	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xbf77ec…
07-13 16:52:05	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	80	5¢	$4	0xd8961d…
07-13 16:49:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x01cc49…
07-13 16:46:31	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	No	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x838722…
07-13 16:02:04	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	22	42¢	$9	0x496aef…
07-13 15:18:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	24	27¢	$6	0x642c08…
07-13 14:40:25	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x4d4e73…
07-13 14:40:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x8e83a6…
07-13 13:55:25	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0x1a66e2…
07-13 13:33:17	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x539043…
07-13 11:43:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x9ff936…
07-13 11:43:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x7d9294…
07-13 11:35:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xfdadc2…
07-13 11:03:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x7efb97…
07-13 11:03:37	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x143479…
07-13 11:03:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x0acc60…
07-13 10:01:14	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x279b15…
07-13 09:55:28	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x911e8d…
07-13 09:46:10	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2cb029…
07-13 08:34:01	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x079f70…
07-13 08:28:23	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd62c13…
07-13 07:09:43	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x6e05a4…
07-13 06:38:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0xff1892…
07-13 05:38:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0xaefcb8…
07-13 05:37:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x950748…
07-13 04:10:41	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	9¢	$2	0x7e14cf…
07-13 03:04:41	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xf1124e…
07-13 02:44:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x66f1bf…
07-13 02:00:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xdb358a…
07-13 00:20:52	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0x480bb7…
07-13 00:06:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xa40849…
07-13 00:06:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0xca70d5…
07-13 00:05:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	23¢	$7	0x3c5c2f…
07-12 23:22:23	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x508bf3…
07-12 22:17:23	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x5912fc…
07-12 22:05:41	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x858db2…
07-12 22:05:40	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x52edd2…
07-12 22:05:40	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x01fad7…
07-12 21:49:20	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf0054a…
07-12 21:12:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x8cb016…
07-12 20:31:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xfaf81f…
07-12 20:27:41	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdfc6ec…
07-12 20:27:20	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0xc8f9a4…
07-12 19:23:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x5dba33…
07-12 18:56:49	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xa093b5…
07-12 18:35:05	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x9c8c7a…
07-12 18:34:55	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x470b19…
07-12 18:15:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x506325…
07-12 17:50:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x0a6948…
07-12 17:17:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x83f459…
07-12 16:05:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0x649c8f…
07-12 15:40:14	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xb41c1c…
07-12 15:12:14	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4d837a…
07-12 14:53:31	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	SELL	34	46¢	$16	0x13bb1f…
07-12 14:52:10	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x8c2e04…
07-12 14:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x1b9e16…
07-12 13:17:50	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x01d145…
07-12 13:06:14	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x51726f…
07-12 12:11:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xb059f4…
07-12 11:22:17	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x38be90…
07-12 09:59:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xe28003…
07-12 09:06:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x7d0b72…
07-12 08:33:28	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xa388c5…
07-12 05:45:25	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	345	0¢	$0	0x1d6e11…
07-12 05:45:23	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	735	0¢	$1	0x4a8c5b…
07-12 05:45:22	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	645	0¢	$1	0x1c0452…
07-12 05:45:20	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	565	0¢	$1	0x9fa185…
07-12 05:45:19	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xb1ccd5…
07-12 05:45:19	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	440	0¢	$0	0xadea96…
07-12 05:45:17	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	410	0¢	$0	0xb97336…
07-12 05:45:16	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	655	0¢	$1	0x349737…
07-12 05:45:14	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	660	0¢	$1	0xc5d4d4…
07-12 05:45:13	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	350	0¢	$0	0xf252c0…
07-12 05:45:11	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	475	0¢	$0	0xf53e85…
07-12 05:45:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	640	0¢	$1	0x64ef86…
07-12 05:45:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	580	0¢	$1	0x110606…
07-12 05:37:25	Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0xd808cd…
07-12 05:04:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	17	37¢	$6	0x262a0b…
07-12 04:39:43	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x0f5bbe…
07-12 04:38:41	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x0b9559…
07-12 04:37:37	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0xf8150b…
07-12 04:29:43	Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 NL Central title?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0xc7ff2c…
07-12 04:21:19	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0x746c0d…
07-12 02:40:28	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7b152a…
07-12 01:08:11	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	90	5¢	$4	0x2a723a…
07-12 00:39:58	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	377	5¢	$18	0x617743…
07-12 00:30:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	21¢	$4	0x7dc8cf…
07-12 00:11:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0x390465…
07-12 00:06:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x95179a…
07-11 23:53:52	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0xcec7f1…
07-11 23:53:04	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x909a56…
07-11 23:08:40	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	10¢	$3	0xffbe5c…