Rural-Graffiti — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

Trades

559

lifetime

Volume

$4.52K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 07-17 11:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Tech

58% — —

Politics

23% 100% +$1

Other

20% 0% $-8

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	40	$474	424	424	+0	open	—	07-07 00:11
gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	67	$438	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	07-09 06:43
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	82	$430	3,495	3,495	+0	open	—	07-09 11:41
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	23	$196	592	592	+0	open	—	06-30 21:39
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	9	$186	186	183	+3	open	—	07-08 16:45
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	24	$182	708	383	+325	open	—	07-02 09:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	17	$177	282	132	+150	open	—	06-27 06:31
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	16	$128	83	83	+0	open	—	06-29 11:38
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	5	$119	73	73	+0	open	—	05-02 07:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$112	70	70	+0	open	—	05-14 08:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$110	70	70	+0	open	—	05-23 13:08
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	19	$110	149	149	+0	open	—	07-06 17:53
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	15	$108	395	53	+342	open	—	06-09 16:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$88	80	65	+15	open	—	06-13 19:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$83	20	85	-65	open	—	06-07 01:38
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	19	$78	428	428	+0	open	—	07-06 09:13
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	3	$73	65	65	+0	open	—	06-17 10:51
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	8	$70	185	185	+0	open	—	07-01 21:32
will openai release a new frontier model on or before july 31 2026	13	$69	104	104	+0	open	—	07-08 17:47
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	6	$62	35	35	+0	open	—	07-12 02:40
will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	12	$62	47	47	+0	open	—	07-17 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$62	35	35	+0	open	—	04-24 07:06
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	26	$62	8,767	292	+8,475	open	—	07-12 05:45
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	3	$60	40	40	+0	open	—	06-08 11:23
gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	9	$59	31	31	+0	open	—	07-03 00:24
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	2	$57	30	30	+0	open	—	04-26 01:08
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$56	0	60	-60	open	—	05-31 10:30
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	2	$56	30	30	+0	open	—	04-27 07:05
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	3	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	07-02 04:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$53	30	30	+0	Yes	+$1	05-02 01:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 11:48:15	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xcabf46…
07-15 22:53:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xf420b0…
07-15 22:53:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xa4274c…
07-13 22:02:52	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	23	3¢	$1	0x66df12…
07-13 14:40:25	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x4d4e73…
07-13 14:40:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x8e83a6…
07-13 13:55:25	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0x1a66e2…
07-13 13:33:17	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x539043…
07-13 11:43:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x9ff936…
07-13 11:43:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x7d9294…
07-13 11:03:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x7efb97…
07-13 11:03:37	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x143479…
07-13 10:01:14	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x279b15…
07-13 09:55:28	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x911e8d…
07-13 09:46:10	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x2cb029…
07-13 08:34:01	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x079f70…
07-13 08:28:23	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd62c13…
07-12 21:49:20	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf0054a…
07-12 21:12:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x8cb016…
07-12 20:27:41	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdfc6ec…
07-12 20:27:20	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	8	46¢	$4	0xc8f9a4…
07-12 19:23:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x5dba33…
07-12 18:35:05	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x9c8c7a…
07-12 18:34:55	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x470b19…
07-12 18:15:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x506325…
07-12 17:50:47	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x0a6948…
07-12 17:17:04	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x83f459…
07-12 15:40:14	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xb41c1c…
07-12 15:12:14	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4d837a…
07-12 13:06:14	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x51726f…
07-12 11:22:17	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x38be90…
07-12 09:59:13	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xe28003…
07-12 05:45:25	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	345	0¢	$0	0x1d6e11…
07-12 05:45:23	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	735	0¢	$1	0x4a8c5b…
07-12 05:45:22	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	645	0¢	$1	0x1c0452…
07-12 05:45:20	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	565	0¢	$1	0x9fa185…
07-12 05:45:19	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xb1ccd5…
07-12 05:45:19	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	440	0¢	$0	0xadea96…
07-12 05:45:17	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	410	0¢	$0	0xb97336…
07-12 05:45:16	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	655	0¢	$1	0x349737…
07-12 05:45:14	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	660	0¢	$1	0xc5d4d4…
07-12 05:45:13	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	350	0¢	$0	0xf252c0…
07-12 05:45:11	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	475	0¢	$0	0xf53e85…
07-12 05:45:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	640	0¢	$1	0x64ef86…
07-12 05:45:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	580	0¢	$1	0x110606…
07-12 05:04:46	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	SELL	17	37¢	$6	0x262a0b…
07-12 04:39:43	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x0f5bbe…
07-12 04:38:41	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x0b9559…
07-12 04:37:37	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0xf8150b…
07-12 04:21:19	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0x746c0d…
07-12 02:40:28	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7b152a…
07-12 01:08:11	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	90	5¢	$4	0x2a723a…
07-12 00:39:58	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	377	5¢	$18	0x617743…
07-11 23:53:52	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	35	5¢	$2	0xcec7f1…
07-11 23:53:04	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x909a56…
07-11 22:57:10	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	77	2¢	$2	0xc05e8a…
07-11 22:49:49	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$6	0x01b7c4…
07-11 22:49:01	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xa6e41e…
07-11 22:48:59	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x6b3c2f…
07-11 22:48:59	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0x605044…
07-11 22:48:56	Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?	Yes	BUY	865	2¢	$17	0xf2f993…
07-10 05:34:44	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260623205144679 693 339 754	Yes	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x309135…
07-10 04:27:34	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0xe907f0…
07-09 19:33:26	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260623205144679 693 339 754	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x71b893…
07-09 19:31:50	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x9197f7…
07-09 19:00:41	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260623205144680 546 515 119	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x0ec35c…
07-09 19:00:25	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	19¢	$3	0x4f4f57…
07-09 18:29:56	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260623205144679 693 339 754	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x2efcbe…
07-09 18:10:37	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x28fd9d…
07-09 16:14:05	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1470 by december 31 2026 654	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x808f99…
07-09 15:16:31	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260623205144680 546 515 119	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x0c2383…
07-09 15:16:22	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x9cb582…
07-09 14:55:13	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260623205144679 693 339 754	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5a2c48…
07-09 14:12:31	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x732ab9…
07-09 14:02:43	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x2c6ef0…
07-09 13:37:35	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfb8e12…
07-09 11:41:05	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	No	SELL	173	0¢	$0	0x4bdf30…
07-09 11:20:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	No	BUY	173	1¢	$1	0x0a72b6…
07-09 10:46:32	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260623205144680 546 515 119	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0a5f51…
07-09 10:45:19	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260623205144680 546 515 119	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x60c64e…
07-09 09:36:02	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260623205144680 546 515 119	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd18a8f…
07-09 09:35:55	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x949c3f…
07-09 09:07:02	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026 20260623205144680 546 515 119	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7624ad…
07-09 08:01:11	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x748220…
07-09 06:45:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	No	SELL	1,372	0¢	$5	0xdb955f…
07-09 06:44:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	No	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x202165…
07-09 06:43:46	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x66d619…
07-09 06:41:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xd47ac7…
07-09 06:24:41	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	No	BUY	1,400	2¢	$24	0xf466b8…
07-09 06:02:13	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260623205144679 693 339 754	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x57047a…
07-09 05:26:11	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x1653a2…
07-09 02:12:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x574689…
07-09 02:11:56	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xca300b…
07-09 02:01:50	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xdaa774…
07-09 01:42:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x2b44c1…
07-08 23:57:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xe6d62b…
07-08 22:12:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe96a56…
07-08 20:38:32	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$23	0xe74a92…
07-08 19:31:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0xb955bd…
07-08 17:47:37	will openai release a new frontier model on or before july 31 2026	No	SELL	63	0¢	$0	0x3e023b…