Ambitious-Optimist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

76.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$35

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 07-03 06:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

46% 100% +$12

Politics

24% — —

Sports

16% 0% $-10

Tech

12% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+23	$10	82¢	$19	+$9	06-14 10:00
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	+29	$10	40¢	$11	+$1	06-28 10:45
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+32	$10	15¢	$5	$-5	06-08 05:35
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	+18	$10	0¢	$0	$-10	06-28 10:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	2	$63	53	53	+0	open	—	05-26 02:39
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$52	68	68	+0	open	—	03-23 11:34
itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	3	$40	42	42	+0	open	—	07-01 21:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$36	38	38	+0	open	—	05-06 10:39
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$32	26	26	+0	open	—	05-27 16:14
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$32	30	30	+0	Yes	+$12	04-08 07:44
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	2	$31	56	56	+0	open	—	06-16 05:52
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$31	30	30	+0	open	—	06-07 15:59
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	2	$30	26	26	+0	open	—	04-28 02:37
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	2	$30	26	26	+0	open	—	03-29 07:47
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	2	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	06-21 13:23
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 31	2	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	03-31 08:07
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 27 387	2	$29	21	21	+0	open	—	03-28 18:44
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	2	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	07-01 08:43
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev	2	$25	185	185	+0	open	—	05-26 09:32
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	1	$21	0	33	-33	open	—	06-21 01:22
will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	2	$21	21	21	+0	open	—	06-30 10:37
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	03-15 12:05
will qatar strike iran by march 31	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	03-18 17:03
cbb tx pur 2026 03 26	1	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	03-26 09:04
will trump say jesus this week march 8	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	03-11 16:04
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage	1	$10	50	0	+50	open	—	05-24 17:43
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	05-27 20:28
will russia capture hryshyne by june 30 2026 484 168 415	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	03-11 16:08
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles	1	$10	31	0	+31	open	—	05-24 22:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	1	$10	130	0	+130	open	—	03-31 08:11
will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	04-08 07:46
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	1	$10	31	0	+31	open	—	05-14 22:29
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$10	32	0	+32	open	—	06-08 05:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	07-01 08:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 06:14:20	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xfe56e1…
07-03 06:13:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xdbb4d3…
07-01 21:20:53	itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	Rafael De Alba	SELL	32	72¢	$23	0x07067a…
07-01 21:20:49	itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	Rafael De Alba	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xe7774e…
07-01 18:53:28	itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	Rafael De Alba	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x273e91…
07-01 08:46:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x13519e…
07-01 08:44:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xecce62…
07-01 08:43:32	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xfc36da…
06-30 10:37:31	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	SELL	21	53¢	$11	0x538e42…
06-28 10:49:32	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x5fd564…
06-28 10:45:55	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x8e3744…
06-25 12:37:41	atp ruiz boyer 2026 06 25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x16da7d…
06-21 13:26:01	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xda0366…
06-21 13:23:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x0b6c01…
06-21 01:22:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	65¢	$21	0x016ac3…
06-16 07:12:25	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xb5b623…
06-16 05:52:30	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0x133ed0…
06-15 14:29:19	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x0001c7…
06-14 10:00:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x1a85a5…
06-14 10:00:24	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x524720…
06-14 08:11:21	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa19ee4…
06-14 07:31:03	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc151e7…
06-12 20:48:48	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xc9e925…
06-08 05:48:03	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xb8cb67…
06-08 05:35:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xc997f7…
06-07 15:59:46	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0x1bfd7f…
06-04 06:14:37	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x95f48d…
05-31 07:30:44	Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0x20d546…
05-31 07:29:59	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x8368e4…
05-31 07:26:55	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xd65368…
05-27 20:28:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xddebcc…
05-27 20:27:19	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x8c68b9…
05-27 16:14:56	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	26	86¢	$22	0x6bfdc6…
05-27 05:50:41	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x91d842…
05-26 09:32:56	Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev	Adam Walton	SELL	185	8¢	$15	0xe2aca1…
05-26 05:22:53	Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev	Adam Walton	BUY	185	5¢	$10	0x8d78dc…
05-26 02:39:44	PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	PortlandFire	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xae744b…
05-25 20:07:51	PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	PortlandFire	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xc99230…
05-24 22:19:33	Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xf9baa1…
05-24 22:18:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf883d9…
05-24 22:16:47	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x41ac59…
05-24 17:43:54	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage	megoshort	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x0771cd…
05-24 17:36:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x140699…
05-24 09:23:55	Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x53a049…
05-24 08:39:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x5ac6f3…
05-22 09:58:36	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xa2be57…
05-18 06:27:20	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x2769c2…
05-18 06:16:24	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xad3a19…
05-17 11:42:08	Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x28cec8…
05-14 22:29:30	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xa851c0…
05-06 16:12:29	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x5006ea…
05-06 10:39:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	67¢	$26	0x6d653d…
05-05 21:06:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xa08503…
04-28 20:26:48	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Trail Blazers	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x729f8d…
04-28 02:37:50	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x936919…
04-25 21:09:12	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x379ec0…
04-25 20:46:28	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x0824cc…
04-25 20:38:52	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x0d07c2…
04-25 19:41:42	Thunder vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xd39ea3…
04-24 09:30:08	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb365e0…
04-24 09:29:22	Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin	Sofia Kenin	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x6f8ad9…
04-24 09:27:58	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xde586b…
04-24 09:26:52	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x4d4bce…
04-24 09:25:54	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x929577…
04-11 13:24:57	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xa47b59…
04-11 08:52:41	will the portland trail blazers make the nba playoffs 772	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x59ee86…
04-11 08:47:01	lol ns drx 2026 04 11	Kiwoom DRX	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x836a8c…
04-08 07:46:57	will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xddcbad…
04-08 07:46:01	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x937beb…
04-08 07:44:03	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x186a8d…
03-31 08:11:59	lol blg we 2026 03 31	Team WE	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x4b691a…
03-31 08:11:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	130	8¢	$10	0x03e960…
03-31 08:07:27	russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 31	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0xfdef78…
03-29 11:39:34	russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 31	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x36f881…
03-29 11:37:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x64a456…
03-29 11:36:00	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x46d5a3…
03-29 11:35:12	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xad0ad9…
03-29 07:47:56	will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	No	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0x432695…
03-28 18:44:01	russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 27 387	No	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0x9697df…
03-26 09:04:43	cbb tx pur 2026 03 26	Texas Longhorns	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xb4117b…
03-26 08:57:03	will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xa484f5…
03-26 08:51:41	atp martine bertola 2026 03 25	Remy Bertola	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xe8f101…
03-26 08:51:09	russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 27 387	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x6285f3…
03-23 11:44:11	will jannik sinner win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x53219b…
03-23 11:43:07	will the us tariff rate on china be between 15 and 25 on march 31	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x958b76…
03-23 11:38:25	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x540ecc…
03-23 11:34:27	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	68	61¢	$42	0x0ff767…
03-18 17:06:57	ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 halftime result draw	Yes	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0x3b74fb…
03-18 17:03:21	will qatar strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x08bf27…
03-15 12:06:07	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x7e0257…
03-15 12:05:07	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x2ffd4e…
03-15 09:20:55	highest temperature in london on march 16 2026 12c	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x8df1fc…
03-12 20:58:01	will qatar strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xe0a8db…
03-11 16:09:49	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xbf4338…
03-11 16:08:33	will russia capture hryshyne by june 30 2026 484 168 415	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xa70fee…
03-11 16:05:21	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x0336a5…
03-11 16:04:29	will trump say jesus this week march 8	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xa3c0a6…