Ambitious-Optimist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.2%

Resolved

Trades

135

lifetime

Volume

$1.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 07-24 19:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$12

Politics

19% — —

Sports

15% 0% $-10

Tech

13% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	2	$63	53	53	+0	open	—	05-26 02:39
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$52	68	68	+0	open	—	03-23 11:34
itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	3	$40	42	42	+0	open	—	07-01 21:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$36	38	38	+0	open	—	05-06 10:39
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	2	$32	26	26	+0	open	—	05-27 16:14
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$32	30	30	+0	Yes	+$12	04-08 07:44
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	2	$31	56	56	+0	open	—	06-16 05:52
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$31	30	30	+0	open	—	06-07 15:59
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	2	$30	26	26	+0	open	—	04-28 02:37
will tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in q1 2026	2	$30	26	26	+0	open	—	03-29 07:47
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 31	2	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	03-31 08:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	2	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	06-21 13:23
bkfibaqeu pol net 2026 07 06	2	$30	71	71	+0	open	—	07-06 16:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$30	23	23	+0	open	—	07-06 10:55
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	2	$30	28	28	+0	open	—	07-05 07:40
russia military action against kyiv municipality by march 27 387	2	$29	21	21	+0	open	—	03-28 18:44
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	2	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	07-01 08:43
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev	2	$25	185	185	+0	open	—	05-26 09:32
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	1	$21	0	33	-33	open	—	06-21 01:22
will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	2	$21	21	21	+0	open	—	06-30 10:37
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	03-15 12:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	1	$20	0	59	-59	open	—	07-06 18:04
will qatar strike iran by march 31	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	03-18 17:03
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	1	$12	20	0	+20	open	—	07-07 07:50
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage	1	$10	50	0	+50	open	—	05-24 17:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	1	$10	130	0	+130	open	—	03-31 08:11
will russia capture hryshyne by june 30 2026 484 168 415	1	$10	125	0	+125	open	—	03-11 16:08
cbb tx pur 2026 03 26	1	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	03-26 09:04
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$10	32	0	+32	open	—	06-08 05:35
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	1	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	07-07 07:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 19:51:01	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x17799f…
07-24 19:47:49	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x380fc2…
07-24 19:44:27	nvda up or down on july 27 2026	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x0baf72…
07-24 19:42:52	will tsla dip to 300 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc9e7c2…
07-24 19:41:09	xauusd up or down on july 27 2026	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3e0055…
07-24 08:00:42	dogecoin up or down on july 24 2026	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x0d16e4…
07-24 07:41:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x1cdc8c…
07-24 07:40:04	cs2 mgc 3dmax 2026 07 24	3DMAX	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xea3579…
07-24 07:38:49	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x1462ea…
07-23 22:16:52	cfl edm ssk 2026 07 23	Edmonton Elks	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x7be1f9…
07-23 22:15:31	wnba tor min 2026 07 28	Toronto Tempo	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x2320fa…
07-23 22:14:31	crint tza2 uga2 2026 07 24	Tanzania	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x4d9c20…
07-23 22:11:48	itf takizaw delaney 2026 07 24	Taiki Takizawa	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xbb6efb…
07-19 07:01:25	wta hon lee 2026 07 19	Priscilla Hon	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xf710fc…
07-16 06:18:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xb195f7…
07-13 06:20:02	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x15c910…
07-13 06:18:28	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xa41d68…
07-08 03:41:26	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x0814f4…
07-07 07:56:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x84adf8…
07-07 07:53:38	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xacdf4b…
07-07 07:53:08	Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	18¢	$10	0xbfcd30…
07-07 07:52:07	Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0xe8ecd3…
07-07 07:50:55	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xaa2812…
07-07 07:47:40	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by december 31	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x15342d…
07-07 07:44:38	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x358dbe…
07-06 20:27:20	will bitcoin reach 66k july 6 12 2026	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xcf1ec4…
07-06 20:25:46	cfl ott edm 2026 07 09	Ottawa Redblacks	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x06158c…
07-06 20:24:46	wnba conn min 2026 07 06	Connecticut Sun	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x304560…
07-06 18:04:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	59	34¢	$20	0x7dd3d1…
07-06 16:42:22	bkfibaqeu pol net 2026 07 06	Netherlands	SELL	71	28¢	$20	0x73c76d…
07-06 11:19:14	bkfibaqeu pol net 2026 07 06	Netherlands	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xdc1a10…
07-06 11:17:53	crint dnk est 2026 07 08	Estonia	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x890e88…
07-06 10:55:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x548d69…
07-06 07:03:41	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x8bdb98…
07-06 07:03:17	mlb nyy tb 2026 07 06	New York Yankees	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xe3eb52…
07-05 18:52:05	spacex closing price updown end of july 20260630212930798	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x43b033…
07-05 08:18:35	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x9ba8d2…
07-05 07:40:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	SELL	28	72¢	$20	0x5abdc2…
07-03 06:14:20	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xfe56e1…
07-03 06:13:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xdbb4d3…
07-01 21:20:53	itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	Rafael De Alba	SELL	32	72¢	$23	0x07067a…
07-01 21:20:49	itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	Rafael De Alba	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xe7774e…
07-01 18:53:28	itf alba hassani 2026 07 01	Rafael De Alba	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x273e91…
07-01 08:46:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x13519e…
07-01 08:44:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xecce62…
07-01 08:43:32	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xfc36da…
06-30 10:37:31	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	SELL	21	53¢	$11	0x538e42…
06-28 10:49:32	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x5fd564…
06-28 10:45:55	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x8e3744…
06-25 12:37:41	atp ruiz boyer 2026 06 25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x16da7d…
06-21 13:26:01	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xda0366…
06-21 13:23:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x0b6c01…
06-21 01:22:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	65¢	$21	0x016ac3…
06-16 07:12:25	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xb5b623…
06-16 05:52:30	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0x133ed0…
06-15 14:29:19	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x0001c7…
06-14 10:00:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x1a85a5…
06-14 10:00:24	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x524720…
06-14 08:11:21	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa19ee4…
06-14 07:31:03	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xc151e7…
06-12 20:48:48	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xc9e925…
06-08 05:48:03	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xb8cb67…
06-08 05:35:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xc997f7…
06-07 15:59:46	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0x1bfd7f…
06-04 06:14:37	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x95f48d…
05-31 07:30:44	Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang	Xiyu Wang	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0x20d546…
05-31 07:29:59	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x8368e4…
05-31 07:26:55	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xd65368…
05-27 20:28:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xddebcc…
05-27 20:27:19	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x8c68b9…
05-27 16:14:56	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	26	86¢	$22	0x6bfdc6…
05-27 05:50:41	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x91d842…
05-26 09:32:56	Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev	Adam Walton	SELL	185	8¢	$15	0xe2aca1…
05-26 05:22:53	Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev	Adam Walton	BUY	185	5¢	$10	0x8d78dc…
05-26 02:39:44	PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	PortlandFire	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xae744b…
05-25 20:07:51	PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty	PortlandFire	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xc99230…
05-24 22:19:33	Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xf9baa1…
05-24 22:18:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xf883d9…
05-24 22:16:47	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x41ac59…
05-24 17:43:54	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage	megoshort	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x0771cd…
05-24 17:36:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x140699…
05-24 09:23:55	Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x53a049…
05-24 08:39:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x5ac6f3…
05-22 09:58:36	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xa2be57…
05-18 06:27:20	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x2769c2…
05-18 06:16:24	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xad3a19…
05-17 11:42:08	Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x28cec8…
05-14 22:29:30	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Dplus KIA	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xa851c0…
05-06 16:12:29	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x5006ea…
05-06 10:39:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	67¢	$26	0x6d653d…
05-05 21:06:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xa08503…
04-28 20:26:48	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Trail Blazers	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x729f8d…
04-28 02:37:50	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x936919…
04-25 21:09:12	Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x379ec0…
04-25 20:46:28	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Nongshim Red Force	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x0824cc…
04-25 20:38:52	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x0d07c2…
04-25 19:41:42	Thunder vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xd39ea3…
04-24 09:30:08	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xb365e0…
04-24 09:29:22	Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin	Sofia Kenin	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x6f8ad9…
04-24 09:27:58	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xde586b…