Downright-Crawdad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

111

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$7.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-28 20:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Politics

65% 67% +$8

Crypto

35% 70% +$22

Other

1% 0% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$3.6K	1,940	1,940	+0	Yes	+$21	03-08 21:51
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	8	$745	396	396	+0	Yes	+$16	04-07 23:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	1	$200	202	0	+202	Up	+$2	04-29 10:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$165	92	92	+0	Yes	+$7	06-15 03:30
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$125	99	99	+0	Yes	-$16	04-01 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$110	111	0	+111	Up	+$1	05-02 18:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$110	119	0	+119	Yes	+$9	05-01 21:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	1	$110	115	0	+115	Down	+$5	05-02 23:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$110	115	0	+115	Down	+$5	04-30 04:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	04-29 05:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Down	+$1	04-28 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	04-29 05:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	04-30 06:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	Up	+$1	05-02 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$100	104	0	+104	Down	+$4	04-28 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$100	111	0	+111	Down	+$11	04-30 04:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$100	102	0	+102	Down	+$2	04-27 19:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	Up	+$3	04-29 05:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	Down	+$3	04-30 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	Down	+$3	04-29 05:44
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$39	19	19	+0	Yes	$0	01-03 10:06
bitcoin up or down january 21 12pm et	2	$39	28	28	+0	Up	$0	01-21 17:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 16:55 UTC	5	$38	40	40	+0	Up	+$2	02-18 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	3	$32	30	20	+10	Up	+$2	05-13 00:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 17:15 UTC	6	$30	30	30	+0	Up	+$2	02-18 17:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$30	238	238	+0	No	-$30	04-01 21:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-18 17:20 UTC	5	$29	60	30	+30	Down	+$2	02-18 17:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	3	$24	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	05-12 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$24	21	21	+0	Up	+$4	05-01 16:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-21 17:30 UTC	2	$23	28	28	+0	Up	+$3	01-21 17:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:38:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xb3bb1a…
10-28 20:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x78cb7a…
10-06 20:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x03eb28…
10-06 20:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x256695…
10-05 15:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xa38f54…
10-05 14:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x5c7b4b…
10-05 14:55:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 14:50 UTC	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xfbee60…
10-05 14:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xeb33d8…
09-28 19:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x30c2a2…
07-31 01:24:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 01:20 UTC	Up	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x7a7cad…
07-31 01:23:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 01:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xeebf58…
07-17 21:21:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x23fdc4…
07-17 21:19:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xcf0028…
07-16 00:20:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x19306f…
07-16 00:17:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x374849…
07-16 00:09:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:05 UTC	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xf11c30…
06-15 03:30:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	94¢	$86	0xf8232a…
06-14 21:43:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	86¢	$79	0x393397…
06-02 14:56:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x31f137…
05-19 14:42:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	18	24¢	$4	0x1fe59c…
05-19 14:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x8103b4…
05-15 10:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x6fd491…
05-14 12:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	18	58¢	$11	0x6af3b0…
05-14 12:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xf3cf19…
05-14 12:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x321b14…
05-13 18:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x24f1ee…
05-13 18:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x2d1aad…
05-13 16:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x248ab6…
05-13 16:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x5ca3e8…
05-13 15:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x643d6d…
05-13 15:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb0156e…
05-13 15:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x290a10…
05-13 15:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x8c2799…
05-13 14:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xf7dc56…
05-13 14:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x19fbd9…
05-13 14:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x761b5a…
05-13 00:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	18	51¢	$9	0xd985f0…
05-13 00:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xa9865d…
05-13 00:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe90cce…
05-13 00:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x499712…
05-13 00:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xefadc2…
05-12 22:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x72c93f…
05-12 22:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x89871b…
05-12 12:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	19	65¢	$12	0xcb4274…
05-12 12:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x6d41aa…
05-12 12:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0xabe1b1…
05-12 12:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x71839b…
05-12 12:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xe53216…
05-12 12:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xf2df9b…
05-12 12:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xba6bd9…
05-11 22:31:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	18	70¢	$12	0x8c55f7…
05-11 22:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xbbcac3…
05-10 17:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x6e92bf…
05-10 17:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xbc16d1…
05-02 23:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4e3b87…
05-02 23:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	115	95¢	$110	0x25562a…
05-02 20:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf3f39b…
05-02 18:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x18a33a…
05-02 18:49:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf3dc3c…
05-02 18:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8cf3b4…
05-02 12:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x979814…
05-01 23:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x7cdf21…
05-01 21:04:48	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	119	92¢	$110	0xee243a…
05-01 17:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x29565b…
05-01 16:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0xd63196…
05-01 16:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x925a70…
05-01 12:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x10e06f…
05-01 12:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x48bf6e…
05-01 12:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x05bb7a…
05-01 11:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0759d1…
04-30 17:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x5b573c…
04-30 16:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x3bab03…
04-30 06:19:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x2ad200…
04-30 06:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 30?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0xad2822…
04-30 04:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xfa5333…
04-30 04:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x18a18a…
04-30 04:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6f5c8c…
04-30 04:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x583bda…
04-30 04:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x2cddd4…
04-30 04:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xf0862f…
04-30 03:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x05d442…
04-29 11:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x340df5…
04-29 11:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x043bc1…
04-29 11:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbe9517…
04-29 10:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0xe7dd48…
04-29 10:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe4163a…
04-29 10:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x93edbe…
04-29 05:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x37e0c6…
04-29 05:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x9b63a5…
04-29 05:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x6d71b6…
04-29 05:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x7ebf41…
04-29 05:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xb5cbbb…
04-29 05:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x91c0bd…
04-29 04:37:08	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0x1c2601…
04-29 04:36:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0xc7ada2…
04-29 04:34:14	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x85406b…
04-29 04:33:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 30?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0x426552…
04-28 17:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x471bfc…
04-28 16:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x4762c0…
04-28 16:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x3aaec5…