Focused-Toreador — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.72K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.3%

Resolved

321

Trades

3,010

lifetime

Volume

$104.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-26

last 10-30 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

71% 65% +$2,350

Other

23% 50% +$14

Sports

6% 67% +$355

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 125 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?	69	$6.2K	4,708	4,708	+0	Yes	+$409	10-01 16:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$4.7K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	10-25 23:56
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	45	$4.5K	6,758	4,058	+2,700	No	-$335	10-04 21:03
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?	67	$2.2K	4,575	2,362	+2,213	No	-$475	08-24 17:46
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	42	$1.7K	2,696	2,246	+449	No	-$95	07-18 22:14
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	6	$1.7K	843	843	+0	Yes	+$1	08-05 07:55
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	17	$1.4K	823	823	+0	Yes	+$57	10-02 15:45
Will Esperidião Amin win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	27	$1.4K	1,194	1,154	+40	No	+$177	10-03 21:35
Will Marcio Bittar win the most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election?	37	$1.3K	1,705	1,511	+194	Yes	+$142	09-26 10:23
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	5	$1.3K	822	822	+0	No	+$15	10-10 13:06
Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	30	$1.3K	1,077	1,057	+20	No	+$123	09-15 07:51
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	21	$1.3K	1,210	1,210	+0	Yes	+$91	08-20 14:19
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	64	$1.3K	1,184	1,683	-498	open	—	10-30 08:36
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	27	$1.2K	1,281	1,271	+10	No	-$32	07-04 20:23
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	17	$1.2K	2,747	634	+2,113	No	-$760	10-25 22:14
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by less than 5%?	12	$1.2K	1,416	358	+1,058	open	—	10-15 02:02
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	20	$1.2K	2,397	646	+1,751	No	-$621	10-03 22:05
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	17	$1.2K	2,254	606	+1,648	No	-$682	10-24 22:51
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	24	$1.1K	1,350	1,350	+0	Yes	+$1,010	10-04 21:30
New pandemic in 2026?	7	$1.1K	601	601	+0	open	—	08-05 07:54
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	33	$1.1K	2,153	654	+1,500	No	-$565	09-09 17:56
Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	42	$1.1K	2,381	2,094	+287	Yes	+$415	09-23 20:32
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	34	$1.0K	1,091	1,091	+0	Yes	+$499	06-21 21:48
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	19	$990	860	860	-0	Yes	+$78	08-31 01:28
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$980	1,534	0	+1,534	No	-$980	10-25 22:48
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?	21	$970	1,437	1,136	+301	open	—	10-19 19:02
Will Carol de Toni win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	27	$933	1,361	1,361	+0	No	+$115	09-09 06:34
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	9	$922	2,328	2,328	+0	No	+$30	07-26 02:04
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	22	$891	1,025	1,025	+0	Yes	+$181	10-04 21:03
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	54	$886	1,752	752	+1,000	No	-$266	06-21 21:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 10:45:54	Will Jaques Wagner be the next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?	No	BUY	61	87¢	$53	0x214094…
10-30 08:55:43	Will Jaques Wagner be the next Brazilian Minister of Defense?	No	BUY	148	92¢	$135	0xbb7d7f…
10-30 08:36:40	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x7743ee…
10-30 08:29:21	Will Simone Tebet be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xc04391…
10-30 08:17:51	Will Jaques Wagner be the next Brazilian Minister of Defense?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xed908d…
10-30 08:12:30	Will Paulo Guedes be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x998d01…
10-30 08:11:45	Will Jaques Wagner be the next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xcc1979…
10-30 08:02:30	Will Paulo Guedes be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x2f9296…
10-30 08:00:43	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	21	83¢	$17	0xfbe3c2…
10-30 07:42:57	will paulo guedes be the next brazilian minister of finance	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xabde57…
10-30 07:32:15	will jaques wagner be the next brazilian minister of foreign affairs	No	BUY	164	89¢	$146	0xb0f67d…
10-30 07:32:15	will jaques wagner be the next brazilian minister of foreign affairs	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x97a608…
10-30 07:25:19	will jaques wagner be the next brazilian minister of defense	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x2a505d…
10-30 07:21:27	will jaques wagner be the next brazilian minister of defense	No	BUY	105	89¢	$94	0x7d32f8…
10-30 07:17:01	will jaques wagner be the next brazilian minister of defense	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x97bc9a…
10-30 07:09:19	will jaques wagner be the next brazilian minister of justice and public security	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0xd71f89…
10-30 06:59:07	Will Simone Tebet be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x7ed385…
10-30 06:55:40	will simone tebet be the next brazilian minister of finance	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0x0113bb…
10-30 06:45:36	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	11	85¢	$9	0xe4521d…
10-30 06:45:28	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x2c656a…
10-30 06:44:57	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x489aae…
10-29 12:54:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	460	86¢	$396	0x6efd4c…
10-29 12:45:34	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x6dac9b…
10-29 12:44:34	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x9119ee…
10-29 10:41:16	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	127	85¢	$108	0xbb2bd2…
10-29 09:39:56	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	102	80¢	$81	0x414103…
10-29 09:38:46	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xf1bc93…
10-29 08:32:04	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	55	79¢	$43	0x8818ec…
10-29 08:16:14	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0x07ce72…
10-29 08:12:58	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0x38e2ec…
10-27 12:14:39	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	55	85¢	$47	0x8d9660…
10-27 11:27:35	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x29eca0…
10-25 23:58:26	Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	200	92¢	$183	0x107bb6…
10-25 23:58:08	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	360	82¢	$297	0xf8a155…
10-25 23:57:47	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	144	85¢	$123	0x5df9ab…
10-25 23:57:36	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	356	86¢	$307	0x455cea…
10-25 23:56:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,500	79¢	$1,975	0x472c54…
10-25 22:48:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	474	38¢	$180	0x73af4f…
10-25 22:48:12	Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$189	0x7a9dc9…
10-25 22:14:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$3	0x56520c…
10-25 20:38:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	435	69¢	$300	0x5d085e…
10-25 10:59:08	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0xc11d2a…
10-25 09:56:00	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	Yes	BUY	65	16¢	$10	0x9e7917…
10-25 09:23:12	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	262	83¢	$218	0x751fec…
10-25 08:49:51	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x393af4…
10-25 07:09:12	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	21	80¢	$17	0xc32e58…
10-25 06:35:26	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	SELL	273	95¢	$258	0x492a2a…
10-25 06:08:48	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x95070b…
10-25 06:08:05	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	266	96¢	$257	0x9bb3b5…
10-25 02:41:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	360	83¢	$298	0x995e7a…
10-25 02:40:44	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0x97e242…
10-25 02:40:15	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	134	97¢	$130	0xe58bca…
10-25 02:38:45	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	123	97¢	$119	0x0b26aa…
10-24 22:51:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	148	42¢	$62	0x547935…
10-24 22:45:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	38	42¢	$16	0x876bab…
10-24 22:45:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6e84d2…
10-24 22:44:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xc4687b…
10-24 22:43:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	27	42¢	$11	0xbb0c62…
10-24 22:41:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xdd8a05…
10-24 22:33:09	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xc1a0b6…
10-24 05:50:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	456	29¢	$132	0x726be2…
10-24 05:48:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	300	38¢	$113	0xf6f03c…
10-24 05:47:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	300	6¢	$18	0x1c8f89…
10-24 03:12:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	111	35¢	$39	0x24a271…
10-24 03:12:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	99	39¢	$39	0xd68a8f…
10-24 03:05:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	106	34¢	$36	0x5bb9c6…
10-24 03:05:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	96	38¢	$36	0xc2eb35…
10-23 20:47:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	1,171	41¢	$480	0x2bb60b…
10-23 05:33:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	480	21¢	$101	0x7f7ae8…
10-23 03:45:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	239	42¢	$101	0xae22ec…
10-21 05:58:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0x11a35f…
10-20 17:05:38	Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xf33ce0…
10-20 17:01:09	Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	90	91¢	$82	0xb0c884…
10-20 16:58:56	Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	210	91¢	$192	0x68b234…
10-20 16:55:42	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$383	0x371e99…
10-20 13:13:32	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	64	82¢	$52	0xe1fff6…
10-20 13:12:56	Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	436	80¢	$349	0xef1f7d…
10-20 09:13:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	SELL	140	32¢	$45	0xafc096…
10-20 09:10:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	SELL	60	25¢	$15	0xa804b8…
10-20 09:04:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x50ff98…
10-20 05:19:06	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	BUY	314	80¢	$250	0x9b34aa…
10-20 05:12:02	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x270cb8…
10-20 05:09:33	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x08e710…
10-20 05:09:30	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x6355fb…
10-20 04:49:54	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in the city of Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	BUY	223	68¢	$152	0x883517…
10-19 19:02:23	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	161	98¢	$158	0x7b4d2e…
10-17 05:14:41	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	215	5¢	$11	0x159499…
10-16 19:28:52	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	BUY	166	90¢	$149	0x0b9df3…
10-16 15:37:22	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	BUY	180	89¢	$160	0x66ec47…
10-16 15:21:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x157bf8…
10-16 06:36:00	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by at least 20%?	No	BUY	126	75¢	$94	0x7ccbc7…
10-15 16:58:17	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	340	91¢	$309	0x89e005…
10-15 11:29:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	350	40¢	$141	0x539bb9…
10-15 02:09:25	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	Yes	BUY	165	90¢	$148	0xb8f197…
10-15 02:08:49	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	Yes	BUY	280	90¢	$251	0x6f8e1f…
10-15 02:02:37	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by less than 5%?	No	BUY	211	89¢	$188	0xc4f15a…
10-14 23:41:49	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x245b7b…
10-14 23:41:33	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	27	10¢	$3	0x7cee8e…
10-14 23:41:21	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	130	10¢	$14	0xc129a9…
10-14 23:38:31	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	750	9¢	$64	0x645aed…