Lopsided-Optimisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$276

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

62.4%

Resolved

538

Trades

1,433

lifetime

Volume

$26.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$812

1 position

First seen

2026-05-21

last 10-27 04:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 55% -$262

Other

47% 60% -$3

Sports

1% 25% -$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+927	$803	88¢	$812	+$9	10-27 04:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	25	$4.5K	2,629	2,629	+0	No	-$457	10-26 05:49
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	12	$2.6K	2,864	0	+2,864	No	+$272	10-26 06:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	10	$1.0K	541	541	+0	Up	+$49	10-19 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	32	$889	600	600	+0	Down	+$33	10-27 02:33
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	3	$803	927	0	+927	open	—	10-27 04:09
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 24?	10	$708	500	270	+230	Yes	+$18	10-24 05:36
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$700	440	440	+0	No	+$66	10-23 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	34	$370	600	0	+600	Down	-$270	10-27 02:26
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$282	340	0	+340	Yes	+$58	10-04 12:30
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on October 20?	4	$280	149	149	+0	Yes	+$12	10-20 07:38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 10?	16	$243	143	143	+0	No	-$16	09-09 12:12
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	1	$213	287	0	+287	Mbappé	+$75	10-25 09:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	7	$205	150	150	+0	Up	+$40	10-25 14:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	2	$202	209	0	+209	Up	+$7	05-22 09:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	4	$193	145	145	+0	Up	-$7	05-23 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$184	110	100	+10	Up	+$10	10-25 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$183	147	147	+0	Up	-$17	05-21 10:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	9	$170	110	100	+10	Up	+$14	10-25 15:02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$164	100	100	+0	Yes	-$18	09-22 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	6	$162	110	100	+10	Down	+$10	10-25 08:52
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$156	110	110	+0	Yes	-$55	10-06 04:53
Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	8	$152	188	0	+188	Yes	+$36	10-24 15:22
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 27?	3	$145	83	83	+0	Yes	-$13	09-27 05:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	3	$140	100	100	+0	Down	+$16	10-23 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	6	$140	89	89	+0	Up	$0	05-23 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	19	$136	160	160	+0	Up	-$3	10-26 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	5	$127	100	100	+0	Down	+$9	10-23 14:06
Steelers vs. Saints	2	$125	100	100	+0	Steelers	+$15	10-25 15:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	4	$125	87	87	+0	Up	+$5	05-23 01:54
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	6	$121	70	70	+0	Yes	+$16	09-04 14:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:09:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	87¢	$137	0x03b96e…
10-27 03:03:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	547	87¢	$473	0xadd8bf…
10-27 02:42:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	87¢	$192	0xdf764b…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xeed43e…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	31	83¢	$26	0xae5242…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	21	83¢	$17	0x9d98be…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x98a283…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x8e08d2…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0x5e9671…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x5ab024…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x4d0c67…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x45ddfb…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x448256…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x338a57…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0x2d8ed0…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	93	83¢	$77	0x23d6ea…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0x1b7bce…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0x045f06…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xd211b7…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xba8ca2…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xac69e7…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0xa6c656…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0x91423e…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x8f52ac…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x509c4c…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x1ce636…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	71	83¢	$59	0x15e351…
10-27 02:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	500	78¢	$388	0x9417bb…
10-27 02:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	83	46¢	$38	0xbddb9f…
10-27 02:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x9f6e12…
10-27 02:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	12	46¢	$5	0x2ada6d…
10-27 02:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	42	40¢	$17	0xc8069c…
10-27 02:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0xaf2814…
10-27 02:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x43eb3d…
10-27 02:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	56	40¢	$23	0x39ad9a…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xfea2a9…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xfd6105…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xfca40a…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xf51157…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0xf1cebe…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xf113fa…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xd978f8…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xd8ebd3…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$4	0xd3a16f…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	24	65¢	$15	0xd297e7…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xca5b37…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xc203d3…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xbc1be6…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb398c3…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xb25aec…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0xad563b…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xa9ae96…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x9a10a4…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x882a46…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x85d304…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x841bfe…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0x81f148…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	33	65¢	$21	0x801809…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x7a47ae…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x712927…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x6f10c4…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	43	65¢	$28	0x59c2bd…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x42bd8b…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0x3ea5b8…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x3d63df…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x233d8c…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	58	65¢	$38	0x1858dc…
10-27 02:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x058daa…
10-27 02:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x8635f2…
10-26 06:04:57	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1,732	90¢	$1,568	0xe6f6fc…
10-26 05:59:14	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x27756f…
10-26 05:59:00	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	575	91¢	$520	0xbc5835…
10-26 05:54:45	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	211	91¢	$191	0xf6c309…
10-26 05:54:20	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x67cdbc…
10-26 05:54:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x09f383…
10-26 05:52:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	95	91¢	$86	0x721300…
10-26 05:50:50	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	25	90¢	$23	0x92423c…
10-26 05:50:48	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x751e00…
10-26 05:50:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xdb7318…
10-26 05:50:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x1f4bb0…
10-26 05:49:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	125	90¢	$113	0xe3ed23…
10-26 05:49:15	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x4e1408…
10-26 05:48:32	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	36	77¢	$28	0x8668da…
10-26 05:48:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	11	77¢	$8	0x8dacf4…
10-26 05:48:29	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	235	77¢	$181	0x344810…
10-26 05:43:33	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	534	76¢	$408	0xdf3a84…
10-26 05:42:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	250	76¢	$191	0x8d6183…
10-26 05:42:15	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0xa115f4…
10-26 05:42:03	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	250	76¢	$191	0x2c9b6f…
10-26 05:41:39	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	280	76¢	$214	0xc4c787…
10-26 05:38:36	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0x8489fd…
10-26 05:37:59	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	140	76¢	$107	0xb14cdc…
10-26 05:37:59	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	140	76¢	$107	0x3a526e…
10-26 05:37:12	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$3	0xbc9e86…
10-26 05:36:57	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xcee36a…
10-26 05:36:45	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	164	76¢	$125	0xe64217…
10-26 05:36:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x5a25dd…
10-26 05:36:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0xbd557a…
10-26 05:36:32	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x2983f3…
10-26 05:36:27	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	76¢	$23	0x23bd56…