Lopsided-Optimisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$145

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

67.8%

Resolved

558

Trades

1,489

lifetime

Volume

$31.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$59

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-21

last 11-05 07:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Other

47% 62% +$434

Crypto

45% 55% -$266

Politics

6% 100% +$47

Sports

2% 17% -$70

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Down	—	+50	$42	96¢	$48	+$5	11-05 09:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Down	—	+10	$4	99¢	$10	+$6	11-05 09:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	—	+110	$10	1¢	$1	-$9	11-05 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	25	$4.5K	2,629	2,629	+0	No	-$457	10-26 05:49
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	4	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	Yes	+$402	10-27 10:50
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	12	$2.6K	2,864	0	+2,864	No	+$272	10-26 06:04
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$47	11-04 02:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	10	$1.0K	541	541	+0	Up	+$49	10-19 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	32	$889	600	600	+0	Down	+$33	10-27 02:33
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 24?	10	$708	500	270	+230	Yes	+$18	10-24 05:36
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$700	440	440	+0	No	+$66	10-23 15:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on November 1?	2	$414	448	0	+448	No	+$34	11-01 03:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	34	$370	600	0	+600	Down	-$270	10-27 02:26
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$282	340	0	+340	Yes	+$58	10-04 12:30
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on October 20?	4	$280	149	149	+0	Yes	+$12	10-20 07:38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 10?	16	$243	143	143	+0	No	-$16	09-09 12:12
Raptors vs. Lakers	8	$229	392	0	+392	Lakers	-$37	11-02 04:09
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	1	$213	287	0	+287	Mbappé	+$75	10-25 09:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	7	$205	150	150	+0	Up	+$40	10-25 14:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	2	$202	209	0	+209	Up	+$7	05-22 09:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	4	$193	145	145	+0	Up	-$7	05-23 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$184	110	100	+10	Up	+$10	10-25 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$183	147	147	+0	Up	-$17	05-21 10:16
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 5?	1	$176	200	0	+200	open	—	11-05 05:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	9	$170	110	100	+10	Up	+$14	10-25 15:02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	2	$164	100	100	+0	Yes	-$18	09-22 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	6	$162	110	100	+10	Down	+$10	10-25 08:52
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$156	110	110	+0	Yes	-$55	10-06 04:53
Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	8	$152	188	0	+188	Yes	+$36	10-24 15:22
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 27?	3	$145	83	83	+0	Yes	-$13	09-27 05:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	3	$140	100	100	+0	Down	+$16	10-23 14:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	6	$140	89	89	+0	Up	$0	05-23 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	19	$136	160	160	+0	Up	-$3	10-26 05:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 09:03:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x7abc7d…
11-05 09:03:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	32	85¢	$28	0x431e1e…
11-05 09:02:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x9613dd…
11-05 09:02:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x7ca1ab…
11-05 09:02:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0x38e37e…
11-05 09:02:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x1ecb73…
11-05 09:02:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xe91791…
11-05 09:02:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x83de3d…
11-05 09:02:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x2b4bba…
11-05 09:02:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x0e468b…
11-05 09:00:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xa534a7…
11-05 09:00:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-05 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xc50090…
11-05 08:57:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x15242f…
11-05 08:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x01b632…
11-05 08:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xd4143b…
11-05 08:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x647abf…
11-05 08:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x5406db…
11-05 07:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x7bfd9b…
11-05 07:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x652bc5…
11-05 07:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb3e5e7…
11-05 07:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x29fe81…
11-05 07:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x79c0cf…
11-05 07:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0x098eab…
11-05 07:35:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	0	35¢	$0	0xeab0f7…
11-05 07:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x139e99…
11-05 07:21:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x924f18…
11-05 07:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x8ebcf9…
11-05 07:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa0baaf…
11-05 07:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1387bb…
11-05 07:15:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x6c3d30…
11-05 07:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x4e0047…
11-05 07:09:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x40e4ef…
11-05 07:08:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x5bebef…
11-05 07:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0xa245f9…
11-05 07:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	26	90¢	$24	0xa874d3…
11-05 07:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x6e9cd0…
11-05 07:04:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xd36fc1…
11-05 06:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xb1baa3…
11-05 06:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	40¢	$1	0x1e4266…
11-05 06:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x01c3ef…
11-05 06:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe391a2…
11-05 06:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x07ce1b…
11-05 06:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x374d80…
11-05 06:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x18a309…
11-05 06:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x878184…
11-05 06:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x0bff9a…
11-05 06:21:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x5e1496…
11-05 06:20:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xaf7c93…
11-05 06:17:37	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x75d641…
11-05 06:14:52	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd21216…
11-05 06:01:00	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x7f3214…
11-05 05:57:10	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xfa4734…
11-05 05:57:10	Heat vs. Clippers	Heat	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6376e2…
11-05 05:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	SELL	30	65¢	$19	0x46e2bf…
11-05 05:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x472768…
11-05 05:47:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xb51138…
11-05 05:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xf45c2b…
11-05 03:29:34	Lakers vs. Kings	Kings	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xc423bb…
11-05 02:25:15	Raptors vs. Nuggets	Raptors	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xd234f8…
11-04 03:28:03	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xfe193b…
11-04 02:23:10	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	100¢	$997	0x4a9cc8…
11-02 04:09:13	Raptors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x47130d…
11-02 02:56:36	Raptors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x51653d…
11-02 02:49:34	Raptors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xdbd2ae…
11-02 02:49:25	Raptors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0xa796a9…
11-02 02:22:33	Raptors vs. Lakers	Raptors	BUY	32	29¢	$9	0xebbc9e…
11-02 02:22:33	Raptors vs. Lakers	Raptors	BUY	58	29¢	$17	0x3c3f26…
11-02 02:22:25	Raptors vs. Lakers	Raptors	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x7ee943…
11-02 02:15:55	Raptors vs. Lakers	Raptors	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x90264d…
11-01 17:27:54	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0xe0a66d…
11-01 03:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on November 1?	No	BUY	300	92¢	$274	0x3aa335…
11-01 03:04:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on November 1?	No	BUY	148	94¢	$139	0xf67782…
10-27 10:50:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,073	87¢	$1,795	0xee7752…
10-27 04:09:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	87¢	$137	0x03b96e…
10-27 03:03:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	547	87¢	$473	0xadd8bf…
10-27 02:42:08	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	87¢	$192	0xdf764b…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xeed43e…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	31	83¢	$26	0xae5242…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	21	83¢	$17	0x9d98be…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x98a283…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x8e08d2…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0x5e9671…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x5ab024…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x4d0c67…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x45ddfb…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x448256…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x338a57…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0x2d8ed0…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	93	83¢	$77	0x23d6ea…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0x1b7bce…
10-27 02:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0x045f06…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xd211b7…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xba8ca2…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xac69e7…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0xa6c656…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0x91423e…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x8f52ac…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x509c4c…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x1ce636…
10-27 02:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	71	83¢	$59	0x15e351…