Optimal-Fly — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

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Unrealized P&L

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Hit rate

—

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

121 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$13.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$107

Open exposure

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0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-28 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

45% 0% -$3

Crypto

43% 94% +$19

Politics

9% 0% $0

Sports

2% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$399	200	200	+0	No	$0	03-07 09:44
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	4	$398	200	200	+0	No	$0	01-22 16:11
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$247	124	124	+0	No	$0	04-23 13:13
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$247	124	124	+0	No	$0	04-29 06:32
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$247	124	124	+0	No	$0	05-20 13:32
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$247	124	124	+0	No	$0	05-27 10:44
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	07-07 07:19
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 80 99	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	03-27 11:42
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	09-08 09:37
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$246	123	123	+0	open	—	08-06 11:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	09-28 09:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	04-14 04:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	03-25 13:47
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$246	124	124	+0	open	—	05-13 12:49
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$245	124	124	+0	open	—	06-22 13:29
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$244	123	123	+0	No	$0	03-30 08:16
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-02 10:45
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 460 479	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-12 12:39
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-02 11:18
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 120 139	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-23 06:36
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-04 12:22
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 360 379	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-07 08:43
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 260 279	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-18 11:31
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 20 39	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	02-09 08:07
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 320 339	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-23 07:30
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 420 439	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-16 05:05
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 260 279	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-31 04:20
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 320 339	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-17 13:30
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 240 259	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-10 14:09
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 420 439	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	01-10 15:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 09:27:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 28?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x5c610a…
09-28 09:25:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xb50ec1…
09-28 09:24:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x86c216…
09-08 09:38:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 8?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x0bf3e9…
09-08 09:37:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x242cd4…
09-08 09:37:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x5d9fbb…
08-06 11:56:38	bitcoin above 68k on august 6 2026	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xeca7e8…
08-06 11:55:45	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x884260…
08-06 11:55:27	Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x7c3f27…
07-07 07:20:07	bitcoin above 68k on july 7 2026	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x34ba69…
07-07 07:19:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x4e7cc8…
07-07 07:18:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x2ef3f0…
06-22 13:30:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x3dc680…
06-22 13:29:23	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0xf5035e…
06-22 13:28:53	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0xd92418…
05-27 10:45:49	Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 27?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x8b4e71…
05-27 10:44:38	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$123	0xeb49a7…
05-27 10:44:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0xc0e8b5…
05-20 13:33:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x950b73…
05-20 13:32:32	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$123	0x382210…
05-20 13:32:12	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x8af5f8…
05-13 12:50:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0xfc1c7c…
05-13 12:49:57	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0xb4b41a…
05-13 12:49:44	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0xa94116…
04-29 06:32:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0xe05bb2…
04-29 06:32:06	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$123	0xe3dd17…
04-29 06:31:46	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0xacf4f4…
04-25 08:53:14	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0xceb128…
04-23 13:15:10	bitcoin above 82k on april 23	No	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x33e76a…
04-23 13:13:44	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$123	0x825c14…
04-23 13:13:36	Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	124	100¢	$124	0x9e0964…
04-21 04:54:32	bitcoin above 70k on april 21	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x64fc0e…
04-14 04:33:59	bitcoin above 70k on april 14	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x516396…
04-14 04:33:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x0bb68a…
04-14 04:33:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x52cb91…
03-30 08:17:12	bitcoin above 62k on march 30	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xa0d79f…
03-30 08:16:40	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	123	99¢	$122	0x1730d0…
03-30 08:16:28	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	123	99¢	$122	0x7fa120…
03-27 11:43:05	bitcoin above 60k on march 27	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x00b0d4…
03-27 11:42:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 80 99	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x3fd0b9…
03-27 11:40:59	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 80 99	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x8f915b…
03-25 13:47:59	will bitcoin dip to 63k on march 25	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe2ed2b…
03-25 13:47:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x92b70e…
03-25 13:47:21	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x8b2675…
03-23 07:31:27	bitcoin above 74k on march 23	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x15abec…
03-23 07:30:25	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 320 339	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x0cfebf…
03-23 07:30:11	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 320 339	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x56d202…
03-20 04:30:31	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 20	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5434df…
03-20 04:30:01	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 400 419	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x97382d…
03-20 04:29:49	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 400 419	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2c01b0…
03-17 13:31:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 18	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x589d6f…
03-17 13:30:29	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 320 339	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x44904d…
03-17 13:30:15	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 320 339	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6d1b0a…
03-16 05:05:45	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 16	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb8f4df…
03-16 05:05:21	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 420 439	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x575bfd…
03-16 05:05:09	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 420 439	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xdacb4b…
03-12 12:40:23	bitcoin above 66k on march 12	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x96eee3…
03-12 12:39:07	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 460 479	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x749067…
03-12 12:38:39	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 460 479	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x98a3a7…
03-10 14:10:33	bitcoin above 74k on march 10	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xbc880e…
03-10 14:09:53	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 240 259	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xc0af19…
03-10 14:09:39	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 240 259	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x83661e…
03-07 09:44:23	bitcoin above 60k on march 7	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x363130…
03-07 09:44:01	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xbe0b24…
03-07 09:43:49	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe9e83b…
03-02 16:53:27	will the price of bitcoin be less than 56000 on march 3	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x75b4c0…
03-02 16:51:57	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x55a0a4…
03-02 16:51:29	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x377a69…
03-01 08:05:07	bitcoin above 74k on march 1	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6fc365…
03-01 08:03:13	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x836248…
03-01 07:56:39	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe85c90…
02-09 08:08:23	bitcoin above 78k on february 9	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x806039…
02-09 08:07:19	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 20 39	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x2bea1d…
02-09 08:06:57	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 20 39	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb7971d…
02-04 12:23:12	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on february 4	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2c847c…
02-04 12:22:28	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x32be01…
02-04 12:22:14	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 160 179	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa075cb…
02-02 10:46:24	bitcoin above 86k on february 2	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8d3b0a…
02-02 10:45:56	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xb9086f…
02-02 10:45:42	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 100 119	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7d5d0c…
01-31 04:21:12	bitcoin above 90k on january 31	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0a9208…
01-31 04:20:48	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 260 279	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf989a2…
01-31 04:20:22	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 260 279	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xeba9eb…
01-28 05:20:11	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 28	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x307ea8…
01-28 05:14:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x95da4c…
01-28 05:14:51	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa38820…
01-28 04:59:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4f51bb…
01-28 04:14:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc76cae…
01-27 15:50:41	will the price of bitcoin be between 82000 84000 on january 27	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xca4a13…
01-27 15:44:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x91f323…
01-27 15:36:25	will the next dutch government be another combination	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x779f46…
01-27 15:28:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-27 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x866cf1…
01-23 06:37:34	bitcoin above 84k on january 23	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x921f92…
01-23 06:36:52	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 120 139	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xb6adf0…
01-23 06:36:20	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 120 139	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2952a1…
01-22 16:12:24	bitcoin above 86k on january 22	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xab8cbc…
01-22 16:11:36	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf430b3…
01-22 16:11:08	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5b96bf…
01-21 11:20:24	bitcoin above 94k on january 21	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe8e205…
01-21 11:20:08	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x4a7ea5…