Defensive-Cohesion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.26K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

43.0%

Resolved

1,641

Trades

80,562

lifetime

Volume

$221.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$485

10 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 10-29 19:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 44% -$7,303

Other

3% 54% +$650

Politics

2% 59% -$185

Sports

1% 52% +$581

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+257	$187	71¢	$182	-$5	10-29 03:54
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+250	$156	63¢	$158	+$2	10-29 03:45
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+250	$120	48¢	$121	+$1	10-29 19:42
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+1,085	$4	1¢	$7	+$2	10-28 16:00
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+25	$5	26¢	$6	+$1	10-27 14:31
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+5	$3	60¢	$3	+$0	07-08 02:22
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+460	$1	0¢	$2	+$1	10-28 10:03
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+221	$2	1¢	$2	$0	10-28 10:03
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+5	$2	40¢	$2	$0	07-08 03:23
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+1,000	$5	0¢	$2	-$4	10-28 08:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	7	$1.5K	1,531	1,531	+0	LYON	-$185	05-11 00:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:00 UTC	360	$1.2K	2,139	0	+2,139	Down	-$130	07-01 08:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 11:00 UTC	341	$982	1,794	0	+1,794	Up	-$39	07-01 11:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 08:30 UTC	309	$969	1,790	0	+1,790	Up	-$11	07-01 08:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 09:30 UTC	342	$963	1,845	0	+1,845	Down	-$31	07-01 09:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:30 UTC	356	$955	1,848	0	+1,848	Down	+$92	07-01 07:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 11:30 UTC	333	$916	1,675	0	+1,675	Down	-$133	07-01 11:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 03:00 UTC	231	$880	1,839	0	+1,839	Up	-$58	07-02 03:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 02:45 UTC	206	$873	1,794	0	+1,794	Up	-$59	07-02 02:59
ufc mag11 drzepe 2026 07 25	4	$858	1,804	1,353	+451	Magomed Zaynukov	-$73	07-25 08:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 09:00 UTC	271	$814	1,507	0	+1,507	Down	-$218	07-01 09:14
ufc kyo man1 2026 06 20	1	$781	1,260	0	+1,260	Manel Kape	+$479	06-20 23:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 11:15 UTC	314	$775	1,449	0	+1,449	Down	-$93	07-01 11:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:15 UTC	233	$731	1,347	0	+1,347	Down	-$66	07-01 10:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:30 UTC	183	$707	1,229	0	+1,229	Down	-$66	07-01 06:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	383	$684	1,592	0	+1,592	Up	+$34	06-01 03:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	301	$650	1,351	0	+1,351	Up	-$6	05-31 04:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	316	$645	1,384	0	+1,384	Down	-$89	06-01 03:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 06:45 UTC	181	$641	1,136	0	+1,136	Up	+$1	07-01 06:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 03:30 UTC	129	$639	1,312	0	+1,312	Up	-$12	07-02 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	152	$636	1,282	0	+1,282	Up	+$194	06-03 07:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 07:15 UTC	169	$635	1,038	0	+1,038	Up	-$157	07-01 07:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 10:30 UTC	206	$613	1,132	0	+1,132	Down	+$59	07-01 10:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 10:15 UTC	182	$612	1,257	0	+1,257	Down	-$111	06-06 10:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 03:45 UTC	155	$538	1,080	0	+1,080	Down	+$200	06-04 04:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 04:15 UTC	170	$537	1,132	0	+1,132	Down	-$5	06-04 04:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-11 09:45 UTC	104	$520	916	0	+916	Down	-$167	06-11 09:59
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 1	3	$515	568	568	+0	Team Envy	+$15	05-13 02:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-06 09:00 UTC	143	$505	1,018	0	+1,018	Down	+$43	06-06 09:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 13:00 UTC	137	$501	1,024	0	+1,024	Down	-$229	06-09 13:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:42:15	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	48¢	$120	0x3ab97e…
10-29 19:42:13	Will Democrats win the Kansas Governor election and Republicans win the Kansas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	250	3¢	$8	0xd1002b…
10-29 19:42:13	Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	255	46¢	$118	0xb611f4…
10-29 09:09:28	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-13 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xcb07f9…
10-29 09:01:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	16	59¢	$9	0x779b01…
10-29 08:52:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x48b206…
10-29 08:44:56	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-09 House election by 55%-60%?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x8ee82a…
10-29 08:44:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x396b76…
10-29 08:44:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-03 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0xbbe7a6…
10-29 08:36:28	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xdbc7c6…
10-29 08:36:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-02 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x1e1c6f…
10-29 08:36:02	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xf355e5…
10-29 08:35:59	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-05 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xd10dc6…
10-29 08:27:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xf23838…
10-29 08:27:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x0985e3…
10-29 08:27:43	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-13 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x9dff2e…
10-29 08:27:41	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x77298c…
10-29 08:27:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x47a8f3…
10-29 08:19:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x8def10…
10-29 08:19:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xd69598…
10-29 08:19:22	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0x7e0ba3…
10-29 08:19:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-01 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0x45982a…
10-29 08:19:17	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0x68088d…
10-29 08:12:31	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-03 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xb8308f…
10-29 08:12:28	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-23 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x17e272…
10-29 08:12:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xa93d61…
10-29 08:12:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xcb7c6b…
10-29 08:12:22	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x4ee916…
10-29 08:02:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-02 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x3ed201…
10-29 08:02:43	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xc64a4b…
10-29 08:02:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x42cea9…
10-29 08:02:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0xf1fbe0…
10-29 08:02:37	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xec5a7d…
10-29 07:54:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x7c3a65…
10-29 07:54:22	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xcf9b14…
10-29 07:54:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	23	42¢	$10	0xbc8fa7…
10-29 07:54:17	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x4dfb7f…
10-29 07:54:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x87cc01…
10-29 07:46:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-03 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0xb70499…
10-29 07:46:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-11 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0xc01870…
10-29 07:46:08	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0x1ecd21…
10-29 07:46:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-08 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0xe93413…
10-29 07:46:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xebbef8…
10-29 03:54:47	Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	257	73¢	$187	0x88b5e3…
10-29 03:54:46	Will Democrats sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	260	20¢	$52	0x0afd30…
10-29 03:54:44	Will Democrats win the Kansas Governor election and Republicans win the Kansas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	250	3¢	$8	0x2e5f17…
10-29 03:45:28	Will Democrats win the Texas Governor election and Republicans win the Texas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	339	1¢	$3	0xf42043…
10-29 03:45:28	Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	268	32¢	$85	0xce09f8…
10-29 03:45:26	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	62¢	$156	0x12169c…
10-29 01:03:25	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?	Yes	SELL	29	6¢	$2	0xae419f…
10-29 00:28:11	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0xc80ad6…
10-28 22:53:52	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	38	16¢	$6	0xe745ac…
10-28 22:38:37	Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x28b93e…
10-28 20:34:50	Will Google say "Chrome" during earnings call?	No	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x34b387…
10-28 20:29:13	will amazon say live sports during earnings call october 29	No	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0xff3c44…
10-28 19:38:11	Will Microsoft say "Azure" 15+ times during earnings call?	No	BUY	42	10¢	$4	0x7cd3a8…
10-28 19:36:52	Will Google say "Gemini" 30+ times during earnings call?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x21c3fe…
10-28 19:00:25	Will "Green" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0xd11db1…
10-28 19:00:23	Will "Shit" be said 5+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xb5d6ae…
10-28 19:00:23	Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	No	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x4be74b…
10-28 19:00:19	Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x58bbf5…
10-28 17:39:14	Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xb61b74…
10-28 16:00:44	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,085	0¢	$4	0x45d3be…
10-28 15:21:32	Will the Republicans win North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x49023e…
10-28 13:43:34	Will Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x13c381…
10-28 13:29:26	Will Microsoft say "Azure" 15+ times during earnings call?	No	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x3ccf92…
10-28 12:12:49	Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x10c100…
10-28 12:10:32	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xa4e504…
10-28 11:58:55	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xeebc16…
10-28 11:24:05	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	No	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x88de6d…
10-28 11:02:58	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" or "Kamala" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x98549c…
10-28 10:08:25	Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xd5e0ca…
10-28 10:03:35	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	460	0¢	$1	0xb5603d…
10-28 10:03:34	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	221	1¢	$2	0x4995f4…
10-28 09:45:38	Will Google say "Gemini" 30+ times during earnings call?	No	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0x161bb0…
10-28 08:01:53	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x048b53…
10-28 07:46:41	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xc97d82…
10-28 07:37:58	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" or "Kamala" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x748be2…
10-28 07:15:32	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x2a2c32…
10-28 07:11:07	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xedd7ce…
10-28 05:44:56	Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x65caa6…
10-27 15:38:12	Will David Lisnard receive the most signatures from elected officials in the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x448ad9…
10-27 15:21:38	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in ohio october 28 oh	No	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x62a367…
10-27 14:45:38	will trump say america first during his midterm rally in ohio october 28 oh	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x36ca9e…
10-27 14:31:44	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xc008fb…
10-27 11:54:00	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x534015…
10-27 10:56:32	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x1b24db…
10-27 06:41:47	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 4% and 6% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x98e10d…
10-26 23:11:00	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in lubbock texas october 27 lubbock tx	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xfa76bf…
10-26 15:23:06	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in mississippi october 26 ms	No	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xaebb7a…
10-26 05:47:30	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0xca0300…
10-24 07:46:05	will verizon say satellite during earnings call october 26	No	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xec9418…
10-24 04:47:33	will robinhood say leverage during earnings call october 27 5pm	No	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0xddc702…
10-24 03:27:57	Will Verizon say "Simplicity" during earnings call?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0xb83b5d…
10-24 03:22:51	Will Coca-Cola say "Zero Sugar" during earnings call?	No	BUY	25	26¢	$6	0x5f09e2…
10-23 23:38:36	will trump say electric during his midterm rally in michigan october 26	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x268aa0…
10-23 23:16:47	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in michigan october 26	No	BUY	29	26¢	$8	0x7432f2…
10-23 16:42:54	Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x0d079a…
10-23 15:40:03	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in georgia october 24	No	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x881882…
10-22 16:32:57	will trump say democrat during his midterm rally in florida october 23	No	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x99f615…