Fluffy-Hose — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.84K

Unrealized P&L

-$30

Hit rate

68.0%

Resolved

1,234

Trades

6,049

lifetime

Volume

$43.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$82

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 10-14 14:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Other

62% 32% +$1,239

Crypto

21% 52% +$436

Politics

12% 23% +$1,279

Sports

4% 30% +$871

Tech

0% 50% +$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 164 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+50	$23	70¢	$35	+$12	08-18 01:24
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	+629	$32	3¢	$19	-$13	10-05 11:40
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+100	$10	11¢	$11	+$1	10-11 23:32
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+80	$15	9¢	$7	-$8	10-02 20:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+200	$18	3¢	$6	-$12	05-11 16:44
israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	+200	$15	2¢	$3	-$12	10-04 16:14
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	+100	$1	1¢	$1	-$1	08-13 03:55
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	-5	-$3	3¢	$-0	+$3	07-29 12:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$1.4K	1,380	1,380	+0	Yes	+$1,054	07-20 01:12
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	7	$1.2K	1,150	1,150	+0	Up	+$1,085	03-10 14:04
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	6	$1.2K	1,317	1,317	+0	Yes	+$474	03-23 11:16
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	14	$940	486	586	-100	Yes	+$130	03-30 18:32
spy closes above 770 on august 5 2026	21	$852	22,604	804	+21,800	No	+$755	08-05 20:07
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	14	$700	573	573	+0	No	+$227	07-29 23:16
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	54	$649	4,384	617	+3,767	Yes	+$392	03-26 20:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	6	$510	300	300	+0	Yes	+$84	05-18 18:26
spx opens up or down on april 9 2026	4	$408	800	800	+0	Up	+$392	04-09 15:55
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 corners team home 6pt5	2	$402	212	212	+0	Over	+$21	07-03 00:30
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	7	$367	267	300	-33	No	+$116	04-10 18:05
will iran strike israel on march 10	14	$365	8,808	225	+8,583	Yes	+$66	03-16 23:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	10	$357	478	204	+274	Up	+$47	08-13 22:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	17	$353	190	190	+0	Up	+$23	08-13 21:34
fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	8	$344	240	240	+0	Yes	+$135	06-30 03:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	5	$338	210	210	+0	Up	+$78	08-13 22:12
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	28	$314	1,337	0	+1,337	No	-$314	05-08 18:10
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29?	12	$292	230	230	-0	Yes	+$167	06-29 20:24
spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	16	$291	2,065	1,690	+375	Up	-$25	03-23 12:20
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	21	$278	980	100	+880	Yes	-$164	08-12 21:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	11	$276	615	0	+615	No	-$276	04-10 21:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 20:10 UTC	2	$265	167	167	+0	Down	+$65	08-14 20:13
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	10	$259	291	133	+158	No	-$47	03-30 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	6	$245	161	161	+0	Up	+$75	08-13 21:39
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	3	$237	298	0	+298	Yes	+$61	07-20 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	14	$237	129	129	+0	Down	+$17	08-13 20:13
spx up or down on april 10 2026	22	$235	749	25	+724	Down	-$224	04-10 19:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:15 UTC	5	$235	482	205	+277	Down	+$155	08-09 21:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-13 22:25 UTC	12	$232	148	148	+0	Up	+$62	08-13 22:29
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	4	$231	190	190	+0	Yes	+$111	06-27 22:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 14:11:23	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb2130d…
10-14 01:22:06	Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x84aa69…
10-12 12:48:30	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0xef7ade…
10-12 12:48:30	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb61ca2…
10-12 12:48:30	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x786859…
10-12 12:48:30	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x64daf7…
10-12 12:48:30	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x45b740…
10-12 12:48:30	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x216d20…
10-11 23:32:08	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x5a7125…
10-11 11:24:17	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xeb1cb4…
10-11 11:15:41	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	62	1¢	$1	0x938916…
10-11 11:15:20	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x49adb9…
10-11 11:14:57	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 11, 2026?	No	BUY	316	1¢	$3	0x2b2559…
10-10 08:11:40	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	484	1¢	$5	0x1d1b3d…
10-10 06:42:13	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	364	1¢	$4	0x52f2c3…
10-10 05:48:07	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xd24c22…
10-10 04:10:39	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	46	1¢	$0	0x3ffb74…
10-10 04:08:34	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xbacc46…
10-10 04:08:27	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0xedfe53…
10-09 13:20:58	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf83493…
10-09 13:20:52	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xe700ee…
10-09 13:07:45	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0xa7189f…
10-09 13:07:03	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x9e5115…
10-09 13:06:16	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xdd5067…
10-09 09:02:01	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0xff85d8…
10-09 09:02:01	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x233fbe…
10-09 09:01:46	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	0¢	$0	0x97e5dd…
10-09 09:01:46	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x757314…
10-09 09:01:46	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x4c3a3e…
10-09 09:01:45	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	803	0¢	$1	0xdd002d…
10-09 09:00:37	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xd8d172…
10-09 07:52:15	Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0x1c6d3d…
10-09 07:49:13	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x86f3ee…
10-09 07:48:01	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	0¢	$1	0x3b4e11…
10-09 07:46:01	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x0f1075…
10-09 07:45:46	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	0¢	$1	0x8595bb…
10-09 07:28:19	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	0¢	$0	0x69f597…
10-09 07:03:22	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	1¢	$0	0x8883f8…
10-09 06:58:07	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x8ac3e8…
10-09 06:56:57	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb70d82…
10-09 05:21:20	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x3af2d7…
10-09 05:21:17	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x2e3124…
10-09 04:41:28	Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xabbc1d…
10-09 04:40:09	Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc49a06…
10-09 04:39:12	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	0¢	$0	0x820847…
10-09 04:38:31	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x909d6f…
10-09 02:13:53	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	768	0¢	$1	0xf0ae42…
10-09 00:07:24	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb227dc…
10-09 00:01:51	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x92723e…
10-09 00:01:51	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x63d8c8…
10-09 00:01:50	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xc89148…
10-09 00:01:50	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8a0339…
10-09 00:01:36	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x71ced9…
10-08 19:29:50	Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0x9f7387…
10-08 17:16:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x5c06e1…
10-08 17:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xf727d4…
10-07 00:54:53	Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xd44f36…
10-06 04:59:06	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	460	1¢	$5	0x6e4f22…
10-06 04:57:31	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x8c761d…
10-06 04:57:13	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xd00919…
10-05 23:58:52	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	497	1¢	$5	0xd23182…
10-05 23:46:41	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc61f5d…
10-05 23:34:35	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x979f0f…
10-05 23:29:25	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x3b54f2…
10-05 22:57:31	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd671f7…
10-05 22:52:01	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	159	1¢	$2	0xc51e54…
10-05 22:32:46	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x664160…
10-05 22:29:25	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x14d2e2…
10-05 22:29:19	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0xcb4a7b…
10-05 22:29:19	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb7e663…
10-05 20:23:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	496	0¢	$0	0xd866c4…
10-05 20:21:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 5?	No	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x04ac96…
10-05 18:41:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0x9048e4…
10-05 18:34:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	106	0¢	$0	0x721e0b…
10-05 18:34:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	44	0¢	$0	0x3f9c3d…
10-05 16:52:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xe77f98…
10-05 11:40:13	Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x2b67f2…
10-05 09:11:40	will ukraine target moscow on october 5 2026	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x277b93…
10-05 07:43:41	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x56ab66…
10-05 07:35:20	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x6ff202…
10-05 07:35:07	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x08cfbd…
10-05 07:09:01	spain snap election called by october 31	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x16bb01…
10-05 07:01:43	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x84ea09…
10-05 06:56:34	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x1f3ca4…
10-05 06:52:01	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0xbc34a1…
10-05 06:51:55	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x11f81f…
10-05 06:51:53	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x819c7d…
10-05 06:51:52	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xca5813…
10-05 06:50:28	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x5de111…
10-05 05:57:07	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x4b3798…
10-04 23:06:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xee49ab…
10-04 20:47:04	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x504e52…
10-04 20:22:40	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0x57694a…
10-04 18:28:22	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	70	8¢	$6	0x2aab06…
10-04 16:14:50	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x167a33…
10-04 11:47:26	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xe72c7b…
10-04 08:59:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xe379ee…
10-04 08:49:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x0a7dcd…
10-04 02:43:22	will ukraine target moscow on october 4 2026	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x838085…
10-03 05:15:57	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	1¢	$1	0x81d1b3…