Realized P&L
-$67
Unrealized P&L
-$1
Hit rate
41.4%
Resolved
1,050
Trades
2,656
lifetime
Volume
$3.07K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$20
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-01
last 11-12 08:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 74 days
Categories
Other
79% 45% -$94
Sports
10% 45% +$28
Crypto
8% 37% -$26
Politics
2% 59% +$25
Tech
0% 33% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +2 $2 90¢ $2 $0 09-27 17:10
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 $0 11-01 08:42
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +29 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 09-27 00:09
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +14 $1 7¢ $1 +$0 11-08 14:31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +1 $1 72¢ $1 +$0 11-12 07:05
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1 $1 79¢ $1 +$0 11-10 19:13
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +7 $1 15¢ $1 +$0 11-12 08:04
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? No +1 $1 93¢ $1 $0 11-02 06:53
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Yes +37 $1 3¢ $1 +$0 09-15 01:47
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 $0 09-13 13:47
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +5 $1 18¢ $1 $0 11-10 15:48
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +3 -$4 28¢ $1 +$4 10-24 01:29
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +6 $1 13¢ $1 $0 11-12 08:02
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes +24 $1 4¢ $1 $0 09-15 01:43
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +6 $1 14¢ $1 $0 10-17 14:51
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes +3 $1 29¢ $1 $0 11-01 08:51
Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP? No +1 $1 66¢ $1 $0 09-15 04:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $1 33¢ $0 -$1 09-28 14:28
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026? No +4 $1 11¢ $0 -$1 11-10 16:07
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? Yes +1 $0 20¢ $0 +$1 10-24 20:09
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? Yes +6 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 10-04 12:24
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +21 $2 1¢ $0 -$2 11-04 22:17
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Yes +4 $1 3¢ $0 -$1 08-28 01:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 67¢ $0 +$0 09-23 08:42
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +0 $0 87¢ $0 +$0 11-12 08:02
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Yes +5 $1 1¢ $0 -$1 10-26 11:30
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No +0 $0 95¢ $0 +$0 09-25 12:53
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? No +0 $0 63¢ $0 +$0 11-02 06:29
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +0 $0 89¢ $0 +$0 09-16 16:42
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +0 $0 99¢ $0 $0 11-05 00:48