Tender-Sombrero — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.18K

Unrealized P&L

+$702

Hit rate

69.7%

Resolved

974

Trades

2,960

lifetime

Volume

$684.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$231

Open exposure

$9.28K

11 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 10-27 14:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 161 days

Categories

Politics

49% 72% +$3,727

Other

36% 48% -$59

Sports

15% 51% +$5,510

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+5,951	$3,215	66¢	$3.9K	+$712	10-03 18:06
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+2,150	$990	47¢	$1.0K	+$20	09-17 22:35
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+1,025	$738	78¢	$805	+$67	09-09 23:53
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-772	-$646	100¢	$-769	-$122	07-26 14:54
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	+1,054	$738	72¢	$754	+$16	09-09 23:57
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+975	$638	68¢	$658	+$20	10-22 11:54
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+1,595	$319	22¢	$359	+$40	09-09 23:55
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+1,772	$319	18¢	$310	-$9	10-22 09:17
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+2,126	$319	14¢	$287	-$32	09-09 23:56
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+533	$208	38¢	$205	-$3	10-22 11:54
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+305	$207	66¢	$200	-$8	10-22 11:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$28.8K	16,425	16,425	+0	No	+$859	03-30 13:32
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	53	$28.0K	26,360	26,360	-0	Yes	-$2,518	09-30 17:05
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	22	$22.8K	12,767	12,767	+0	No	+$994	05-29 23:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	6	$16.2K	9,175	9,175	+0	No	+$1,976	04-21 22:18
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	9	$14.8K	7,525	7,525	+0	Yes	+$83	04-11 13:57
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$14.4K	8,178	8,178	+0	No	+$139	05-29 15:24
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	19	$14.1K	9,868	9,868	+0	No	+$1,140	08-17 02:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$14.1K	7,455	7,455	+0	No	+$242	04-18 11:30
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	11	$12.4K	6,864	6,864	+0	No	+$16	07-17 11:42
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	38	$11.6K	6,342	6,342	+0	No	+$687	06-26 20:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	7	$10.7K	6,600	6,600	+0	Yes	-$1,016	06-13 12:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$10.7K	7,876	7,876	+0	Yes	-$1,930	06-15 05:01
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	13	$10.7K	5,535	5,535	-0	No	+$285	06-18 07:21
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	20	$10.6K	5,809	5,809	+0	open	—	10-23 10:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$10.3K	8,230	8,230	+0	Yes	-$25	08-31 16:39
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	23	$9.9K	5,447	5,447	+0	No	+$561	06-22 05:21
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	29	$9.6K	11,306	5,355	+5,951	open	—	10-03 18:06
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	6	$9.5K	5,113	5,113	+0	No	+$486	08-18 14:45
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	12	$9.4K	5,109	5,109	+0	No	+$415	07-16 16:01
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$9.4K	5,627	5,627	+0	No	+$281	03-25 13:45
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	5	$9.4K	5,336	5,336	+0	No	+$760	07-13 14:00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	5	$9.2K	5,313	5,313	+0	No	+$531	08-09 09:50
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	31	$8.8K	4,758	4,758	+0	No	+$355	06-28 20:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	23	$8.8K	5,607	5,607	+0	No	+$1,844	06-19 22:02
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	24	$8.3K	14,296	14,296	+0	No	-$5,573	04-22 03:59
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	2	$8.2K	4,529	4,529	+0	No	+$204	04-12 14:09
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	21	$7.8K	14,492	14,492	+0	No	-$6,334	04-22 22:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$7.7K	7,108	2,457	+4,651	No	+$651	05-29 15:41
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	5	$7.4K	4,403	4,403	+0	No	+$578	07-07 14:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$7.3K	5,732	5,732	+0	Yes	+$29	04-05 07:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 14:41:57	Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Coventry City FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	105	70¢	$73	0xbda807…
10-27 14:41:57	Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Coventry City FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	45	70¢	$31	0x0bf800…
10-27 14:37:12	Coventry City FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Coventry City FC O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	79	33¢	$26	0xaee22b…
10-27 14:35:06	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	248	42¢	$104	0xceda65…
10-27 14:33:35	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	232	71¢	$165	0x518961…
10-27 14:33:09	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	59	29¢	$17	0x6820da…
10-27 14:32:54	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	SELL	173	30¢	$52	0x60963f…
10-27 14:32:15	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	232	31¢	$72	0xecf43e…
10-27 14:11:38	AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: Leeds United FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	148	71¢	$105	0xa205ea…
10-27 14:11:06	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	196	54¢	$106	0x53f40a…
10-27 14:10:32	Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	186	28¢	$52	0xf7b822…
10-27 13:53:54	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	189	55¢	$104	0x7b2d74…
10-26 23:17:48	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-31?	No	BUY	415	78¢	$324	0x20a7ed…
10-26 09:56:20	Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	87	15¢	$13	0x378d4d…
10-26 09:50:41	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Chelsea FC	BUY	84	31¢	$26	0x9fce6d…
10-26 09:50:08	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	196	53¢	$104	0x8347da…
10-25 15:46:12	Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	421	54¢	$227	0x9a0308…
10-25 15:46:09	Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	229	53¢	$121	0x23f74f…
10-25 15:46:05	Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x5872c4…
10-25 15:46:02	Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xe4b332…
10-25 15:26:45	Will Manchester City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	421	65¢	$274	0x681b56…
10-25 15:26:41	Will Manchester City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x09b184…
10-25 15:26:26	Will Manchester City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	521	63¢	$328	0x23c338…
10-25 15:15:42	Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	218	50¢	$109	0xfe6b50…
10-25 15:11:38	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	AFC Bournemouth	SELL	409	99¢	$405	0xeed758…
10-25 15:10:00	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	SELL	1,497	97¢	$1,446	0x782da5…
10-25 05:14:35	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?	No	BUY	591	54¢	$319	0xbf11aa…
10-24 16:28:08	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	1,119	57¢	$638	0x9bfd63…
10-24 15:37:57	Will Coventry City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	442	47¢	$208	0x0eff47…
10-23 14:15:41	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	378	56¢	$212	0x3815d8…
10-23 14:15:20	Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)	AFC Bournemouth	BUY	409	78¢	$319	0x77cb9a…
10-23 14:11:12	Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	514	62¢	$319	0x88782d…
10-23 12:50:11	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	107	64¢	$68	0x8eaa34…
10-23 12:49:09	Will Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	208	25¢	$52	0xfb6b00…
10-23 12:48:27	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	215	45¢	$96	0x14f36a…
10-23 12:47:59	Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	157	66¢	$104	0x8d81c9…
10-23 11:43:56	Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	BUY	125	67¢	$84	0x71072f…
10-23 11:42:45	Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: Hull City AFC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	76	69¢	$52	0xe166e7…
10-23 11:41:14	Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC: Brentford FC O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	110	72¢	$79	0xf05439…
10-23 11:39:50	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	242	43¢	$104	0xb93be6…
10-23 10:23:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfe9a34…
10-23 10:13:42	Will Fulham be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	SELL	285	20¢	$57	0x5c2761…
10-23 10:00:02	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-24?	No	BUY	456	71¢	$324	0xf1ec0d…
10-22 15:12:41	Chelsea FC to score first vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC?	Yes	BUY	160	63¢	$101	0x075806…
10-22 15:12:15	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	179	58¢	$104	0xf0044c…
10-22 15:11:53	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	330	63¢	$208	0xd3e640…
10-22 11:57:27	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	305	68¢	$207	0xef3ecf…
10-22 11:54:45	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	469	68¢	$319	0x26b4b0…
10-22 11:54:17	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	533	39¢	$208	0xd5cddd…
10-22 10:24:20	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Everton FC	BUY	179	58¢	$104	0x46ff9f…
10-22 10:23:27	Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Everton FC?	Yes	BUY	93	14¢	$13	0xe205b4…
10-22 10:22:51	Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	217	24¢	$52	0xf18e81…
10-22 10:21:24	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	151	69¢	$104	0x3809b9…
10-22 09:17:06	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	1,772	18¢	$319	0xe5337f…
10-22 09:11:00	Ipswich Town FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0x45f098…
10-22 09:10:23	Ipswich Town FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Nottingham Forest FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0x0c4012…
10-22 09:09:56	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-23?	No	BUY	182	58¢	$106	0xf6d4cf…
10-22 00:32:57	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,634	97¢	$3,514	0x1eed86…
10-22 00:32:08	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xd8c361…
10-22 00:31:54	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	211	97¢	$205	0x83cc96…
10-21 12:40:57	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	347	60¢	$208	0xe5abb9…
10-21 00:06:24	Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21?	No	BUY	189	56¢	$106	0x030f0a…
10-20 23:42:03	Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	57	45¢	$26	0xc897e8…
10-20 23:41:27	Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x3add90…
10-20 23:41:14	Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	132	79¢	$104	0x28f51a…
10-20 15:05:53	Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x3b680d…
10-20 15:05:48	Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$49	0x08b525…
10-19 14:19:33	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	158	68¢	$107	0x81dae7…
10-19 14:03:48	Will Crystal Palace be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	125	38¢	$48	0x6a8709…
10-19 14:03:42	Will Crystal Palace be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	125	38¢	$48	0xc668cf…
10-19 14:03:36	Will Crystal Palace be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	43	37¢	$16	0xb4521e…
10-19 14:03:29	Will Crystal Palace be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	74	30¢	$22	0x997504…
10-19 14:02:54	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	97¢	$970	0x394e79…
10-19 14:02:17	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	135	97¢	$131	0xc44d09…
10-19 03:04:18	Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	310	67¢	$208	0xbe9149…
10-19 03:03:03	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	111	35¢	$39	0x3f0111…
10-19 03:02:42	Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	293	72¢	$211	0xb49e39…
10-19 00:38:53	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,140	27¢	$303	0x6cb55c…
10-18 17:01:12	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	520	39¢	$203	0x562488…
10-18 15:43:05	Will Sunderland be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	419	76¢	$318	0x35afd0…
10-18 15:42:33	Will Sunderland be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	6	75¢	$5	0xabc5fb…
10-18 15:42:32	Will Sunderland be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	842	75¢	$632	0xde4384…
10-18 15:42:27	Will Sunderland be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	BUY	187	70¢	$131	0x124285…
10-18 13:20:09	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	483	66¢	$319	0xb9458c…
10-18 02:20:27	Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	57	73¢	$42	0x00c327…
10-18 02:20:23	Will Manchester City be deducted Premier League points by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	161	72¢	$116	0x594fa7…
10-18 02:11:27	Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: Nottingham Forest FC O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	236	44¢	$104	0x0de0f8…
10-18 02:09:30	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	No	SELL	541	86¢	$465	0x8f8cef…
10-18 02:06:18	Will Nottingham Forest be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	316	20¢	$63	0xb05ab6…
10-18 02:06:06	Will Nottingham Forest be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	478	19¢	$91	0x917f76…
10-18 02:05:41	Will Nottingham Forest be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	94	18¢	$17	0x440bd2…
10-18 01:14:21	Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	173	60¢	$104	0xea9c10…
10-18 01:14:08	Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	216	59¢	$128	0x668be4…
10-18 01:14:02	Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	302	58¢	$175	0x201cfc…
10-17 16:07:12	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	608	56¢	$340	0xb3c56b…
10-17 16:06:21	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	SELL	349	100¢	$349	0x838a1f…
10-17 16:05:35	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	340	56¢	$191	0xd23779…
10-17 14:35:26	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	63¢	$111	0x13a945…
10-17 08:40:32	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	63¢	$208	0xdb525f…
10-16 16:53:25	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	532	60¢	$319	0xe84ad9…