Immaterial-Chapter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

394

Trades

5,669

lifetime

Volume

$11.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-28

last 07-09 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 51% $-34

Other

5% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 1045 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+20	$1	1¢	$0	$-1	07-09 14:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	26	$96	73	90	-17	Down	+$20	05-09 18:35
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$96	81	81	+0	open	—	03-19 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	39	$93	130	92	+38	Up	+$20	05-08 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	41	$91	120	92	+28	Down	+$2	05-08 23:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	23	$87	73	62	+11	Up	+$5	05-09 18:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	27	$72	80	50	+30	Up	+$16	05-08 22:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	30	$70	74	59	+15	Up	+$7	05-09 00:59
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	11	$69	167	167	+0	open	—	03-19 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	32	$68	105	55	+50	Down	+$7	05-09 20:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	25	$65	80	70	+10	Up	+$5	05-09 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	19	$64	62	62	-0	Up	$-2	05-09 01:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	20	$63	40	65	-25	Down	$-7	05-09 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	25	$62	60	55	+5	Up	$-3	05-09 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	35	$61	108	73	+35	Down	$-8	05-08 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	35	$61	137	30	+107	Down	$-7	05-08 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	20	$58	48	42	+6	Up	+$3	05-07 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	24	$56	45	51	-5	Down	+$2	05-09 19:37
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	8	$54	352	352	+0	open	—	03-11 12:48
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	9	$53	75	75	+0	open	—	03-19 18:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	18	$50	45	50	-5	Down	+$5	05-08 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	20	$50	50	45	+5	Up	$-0	05-10 00:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	20	$50	45	45	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 20:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	20	$48	50	50	+0	Up	+$5	05-09 23:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	40	$46	170	13	+157	Up	$-18	05-09 19:53
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	5	$46	159	159	+0	open	—	03-11 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	11	$46	39	29	+10	Down	$-2	05-06 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	17	$44	45	40	+5	Down	+$2	05-09 20:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	25	$44	140	27	+113	Down	$-18	05-08 23:39
cl up or down on march 10 2026	4	$44	68	51	+17	open	—	03-10 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	17	$43	40	40	+0	Up	+$3	05-09 23:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-09 14:04:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd80977…
06-07 19:05:07	btc updown 5m 1780859100	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x6a1dca…
06-07 19:00:51	btc updown 5m 1780858800	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0fdf68…
06-07 19:00:09	btc updown 5m 1780858800	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x796bc1…
06-07 18:55:57	btc updown 5m 1780858500	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3eea05…
06-07 18:55:13	btc updown 5m 1780858500	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xab81c3…
06-07 18:50:37	btc updown 5m 1780858200	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xd11be0…
06-07 18:50:03	btc updown 5m 1780858200	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa2fddf…
06-07 18:45:07	btc updown 5m 1780857900	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x04af74…
06-07 18:45:06	btc updown 5m 1780857900	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe19034…
06-03 22:27:22	btc updown 5m 1780525500	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x09bc89…
06-03 22:25:10	btc updown 5m 1780525500	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x51a1ca…
06-03 22:25:07	btc updown 5m 1780525500	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xe2f531…
06-03 22:20:10	btc updown 5m 1780525200	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xeaf12c…
06-03 22:20:10	btc updown 5m 1780525200	Up	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x9b9ab1…
06-03 22:20:10	btc updown 5m 1780525200	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x07f4eb…
06-03 22:20:07	btc updown 5m 1780525200	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xaa82fc…
06-03 22:15:10	btc updown 5m 1780524900	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf96b21…
06-03 22:15:10	btc updown 5m 1780524900	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xcd0172…
06-03 22:15:07	btc updown 5m 1780524900	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4f0910…
06-03 22:10:07	btc updown 5m 1780524600	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa0b1cc…
06-03 22:07:06	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc37059…
06-03 22:07:04	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xf0abb3…
06-03 22:05:09	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdcd076…
06-03 22:05:04	btc updown 5m 1780524300	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x73c906…
06-03 22:02:09	btc updown 5m 1780524000	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x070445…
06-03 22:02:04	btc updown 5m 1780524000	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xc99d71…
06-03 22:00:07	btc updown 5m 1780524000	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xa132e5…
06-03 22:00:06	btc updown 5m 1780524000	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xd0c9c8…
06-03 21:57:13	btc updown 5m 1780523700	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0ccad4…
06-03 21:55:09	btc updown 5m 1780523700	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$1	0x5498ca…
06-03 21:55:09	btc updown 5m 1780523700	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x1130d6…
06-03 21:55:04	btc updown 5m 1780523700	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x955cfe…
06-03 21:51:22	btc updown 5m 1780523400	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x24610a…
06-03 21:50:18	btc updown 5m 1780523400	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x95ecb7…
06-03 21:47:06	btc updown 5m 1780523100	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf95d6e…
06-03 21:47:04	btc updown 5m 1780523100	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9719a6…
06-03 21:45:10	btc updown 5m 1780523100	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xfc7873…
06-03 21:45:07	btc updown 5m 1780523100	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd63fe8…
06-03 21:42:58	btc updown 5m 1780522800	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xb59b77…
06-03 21:40:13	btc updown 5m 1780522800	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3787f1…
06-03 21:37:37	btc updown 5m 1780522500	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5189b4…
06-03 21:35:07	btc updown 5m 1780522500	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5b5e14…
06-03 21:30:09	btc updown 5m 1780522200	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xd8ffed…
06-03 21:30:07	btc updown 5m 1780522200	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x869258…
06-03 21:28:55	btc updown 5m 1780521900	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x8be747…
06-03 21:27:40	btc updown 5m 1780521900	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x86bffd…
06-03 21:22:19	btc updown 5m 1780521600	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb5913e…
06-03 21:22:09	btc updown 5m 1780521600	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2ba0a4…
06-03 21:13:03	btc updown 5m 1780521000	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x81deac…
06-03 21:12:58	btc updown 5m 1780521000	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xd62060…
06-03 21:00:09	btc updown 5m 1780520400	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x42bd07…
06-03 20:59:18	btc updown 5m 1780520100	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xa6cfc7…
06-03 20:55:10	btc updown 5m 1780520100	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x0d4f5a…
06-02 21:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfbba45…
06-02 21:01:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4ce77c…
06-02 21:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x1e95c3…
06-02 20:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7b4934…
06-02 20:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x662ead…
06-02 20:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x73d768…
06-02 20:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2f92f5…
06-02 20:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7e5fb3…
06-02 20:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe57b3d…
06-02 20:46:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xd4b38d…
06-02 20:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x83432f…
06-02 20:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xc21539…
06-02 20:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xad5e74…
06-02 20:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8a6160…
06-02 20:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x166380…
06-02 20:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x500869…
06-02 20:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xac84a8…
06-02 20:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x6af86a…
06-02 20:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x554a8d…
06-02 20:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x54fceb…
06-02 20:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xc7b5e2…
06-02 20:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8e1d7b…
06-02 20:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd248fb…
06-02 20:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb1540e…
06-02 20:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9fee80…
06-02 20:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xb0d4ad…
06-02 20:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x2c0505…
06-02 20:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xe217a5…
06-02 20:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xaf40d0…
06-02 20:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x38089b…
06-02 20:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x28a546…
06-02 20:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xcb26a1…
06-02 20:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc97875…
06-02 20:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xdb33c6…
06-02 20:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc4f2ff…
06-02 20:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf566d2…
06-02 20:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xef09b5…
06-02 20:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa6f0aa…
06-02 20:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	47¢	$0	0x91d334…
06-02 20:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x287fda…
06-02 20:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xd6d8d8…
06-02 20:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x9891de…
06-02 20:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x554c4f…
06-02 20:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0xc460fd…
06-02 20:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x86b6d7…
06-02 20:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0199a9…