Defiant-Gamebird — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.91K

Unrealized P&L

-$3.74K

Hit rate

76.9%

Resolved

471

Trades

3,005

lifetime

Volume

$283.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$1.06K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 01:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Politics

60% 68% +$2,579

Other

36% 74% +$2,198

Sports

4% 90% +$134

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+6,000	$3,355	11¢	$630	-$2,725	10-14 20:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+530	$224	48¢	$252	+$28	10-28 01:47
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	+3,000	$1,219	6¢	$180	-$1,039	09-16 01:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	75	$12.4K	13,650	7,650	+6,000	open	—	10-14 20:52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	25	$5.5K	4,305	4,305	+0	Yes	-$83	05-01 01:35
will jd vance attend super bowl lx	29	$4.9K	2,596	2,596	+0	No	+$35	02-08 21:56
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	31	$4.8K	3,750	3,750	+0	No	-$687	03-25 17:59
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	10	$4.8K	2,452	2,452	+0	Yes	+$127	03-01 15:13
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	14	$4.7K	2,830	2,830	+0	Yes	+$158	04-09 14:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	47	$4.2K	3,303	3,303	+0	No	-$183	04-26 17:31
will trump meet with elon musk by march 31	10	$3.9K	1,950	1,950	-0	Yes	+$30	01-04 19:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	14	$3.5K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	+$715	05-23 21:35
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	16	$3.3K	2,062	2,062	+0	No	+$69	04-20 21:46
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	22	$3.3K	1,883	1,883	+0	Yes	+$399	06-21 00:27
iran strike on israel by march 31	11	$3.3K	1,573	1,756	-183	Yes	+$55	03-01 00:02
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	2	$3.1K	3,000	100	+2,900	Yes	+$9	02-28 00:45
will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by march 31 656 625 393	12	$3.0K	1,889	1,889	+0	Yes	-$86	03-10 18:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	25	$2.7K	1,980	1,980	+0	Yes	-$22	05-03 20:57
will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	14	$2.7K	1,446	1,446	+0	No	+$175	06-30 17:26
will donald trump attend super bowl lx	19	$2.6K	2,966	700	+2,266	No	+$26	02-08 23:40
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	2	$2.5K	2,270	270	+2,000	Yes	+$18	03-03 14:19
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	34	$2.4K	1,496	1,496	+0	Yes	+$35	02-06 18:26
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	16	$2.3K	1,567	1,567	+0	No	+$291	07-05 20:09
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	139	$2.2K	2,231	2,231	+0	Yes	+$167	06-14 09:03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	14	$2.2K	1,480	1,480	+0	Yes	+$173	04-17 15:15
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	9	$2.1K	1,700	1,700	+0	Yes	-$168	03-22 23:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	12	$2.1K	2,480	2,480	+0	Yes	-$117	09-14 21:51
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 5	3	$2.1K	2,102	0	+2,102	Yes	+$14	03-06 02:30
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	5	$2.1K	2,556	123	+2,433	Yes	+$393	07-16 04:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	15	$2.0K	2,850	2,500	+350	Yes	-$605	09-22 18:23
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by june 30	6	$1.9K	1,983	0	+1,983	Yes	+$53	06-16 17:05
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	9	$1.9K	1,030	1,030	+0	Yes	+$80	04-10 23:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	26	$1.9K	2,010	2,010	+0	No	+$32	05-08 14:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:47:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	330	47¢	$155	0x077c47…
10-28 01:46:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	198	59¢	$117	0x28ebd9…
10-27 15:48:18	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 30?	Yes	BUY	250	30¢	$76	0x4a8a76…
10-23 23:17:38	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 26?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x7dbcbd…
10-23 19:53:12	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	7¢	$11	0xb5875d…
10-23 16:52:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	102	59¢	$60	0x9c635c…
10-23 16:15:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0xdd9127…
10-21 00:24:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	58¢	$232	0x97fc01…
10-20 06:12:49	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 19?	No	SELL	63	100¢	$63	0x7fc895…
10-20 05:56:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	250	62¢	$155	0xcd7f4f…
10-20 03:58:12	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 19?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x758d56…
10-20 01:57:51	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 19?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x12aab6…
10-20 00:27:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xdc1b74…
10-19 02:49:53	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 19?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xe91834…
10-19 02:46:35	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 19?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xb516cf…
10-15 01:04:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	55	61¢	$34	0xcb24ad…
10-14 20:52:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xe7ae19…
10-14 20:51:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	14¢	$140	0xed5138…
10-14 19:11:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	Yes	BUY	195	65¢	$127	0x3c1d20…
10-14 07:38:08	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x379d70…
10-14 03:04:25	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xa285ca…
10-13 21:33:21	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	29	20¢	$6	0xefba6a…
10-13 16:34:36	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0x53918a…
10-13 16:29:43	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	21	20¢	$4	0x5630df…
10-13 16:29:43	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x4f068e…
10-13 16:29:43	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0x030ca7…
10-13 15:46:34	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 12?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x79b3ca…
10-13 15:46:06	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xa69071…
10-13 15:38:57	Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?	No	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x24266c…
10-13 14:31:40	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	SELL	142	100¢	$142	0x35e34c…
10-13 02:11:06	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3b89a9…
10-12 00:54:33	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x664f8b…
10-10 13:38:06	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 12?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x8aa0a3…
10-10 00:26:08	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xb2cdb5…
10-10 00:19:16	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 12?	No	BUY	85	90¢	$76	0x05cfae…
10-09 02:20:18	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0xfe06e6…
10-09 02:05:17	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x3de77f…
10-09 02:05:15	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0xb0ec12…
10-09 02:05:09	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?	Yes	BUY	65	87¢	$57	0x3e114e…
10-08 23:16:11	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 8?	Yes	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x1ac59a…
10-08 23:10:47	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 9?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x104a97…
10-08 23:10:11	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 10?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x54bd6e…
10-08 23:09:27	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 9?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xa22dc9…
10-08 23:07:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	800	37¢	$296	0x5a2693…
10-08 00:16:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	800	36¢	$289	0x556984…
10-03 13:32:47	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 6?	No	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0xa4c0ef…
10-02 21:45:02	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 6?	No	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x934d4b…
10-02 21:44:48	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 5?	No	SELL	60	94¢	$56	0x534654…
10-02 19:27:14	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x69a8ae…
10-02 14:34:18	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 5?	No	BUY	80	84¢	$67	0x065873…
10-02 14:34:02	Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?	Yes	SELL	82	83¢	$68	0xc016fd…
10-02 14:32:15	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 5?	No	BUY	215	82¢	$176	0x4b705b…
10-02 01:49:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	2,001	9¢	$180	0xc81934…
10-01 02:58:26	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	87¢	$60	0x9f620d…
10-01 02:56:45	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xca703d…
10-01 02:56:26	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	83¢	$72	0xed9b6c…
09-30 12:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0x3ca8cf…
09-29 18:33:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	487	31¢	$151	0xec15f7…
09-29 18:16:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	213	31¢	$66	0xc27bc9…
09-29 09:19:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	700	25¢	$175	0xd447b1…
09-29 06:42:17	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0x4bbfb9…
09-29 05:13:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	499	11¢	$55	0xf4492e…
09-28 22:53:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x01568d…
09-28 17:36:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	66¢	$99	0x445cdd…
09-26 17:51:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0x101f73…
09-26 08:53:12	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	No	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0xa396f0…
09-26 08:52:51	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	No	BUY	84	3¢	$3	0x91b0db…
09-26 08:52:30	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	No	BUY	340	3¢	$10	0x904b32…
09-26 00:57:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	71¢	$106	0x9defdf…
09-25 23:24:57	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	No	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xcbe5f7…
09-24 12:19:16	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	73	73¢	$53	0xaaa7a9…
09-24 12:18:49	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	95	85¢	$81	0x0249a4…
09-22 19:17:39	Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	41¢	$82	0xaf5909…
09-22 18:23:49	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	84¢	$294	0x7566b8…
09-22 12:53:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	34¢	$170	0xc59a31…
09-22 10:38:55	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	47¢	$31	0x35a2ce…
09-22 10:01:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	29¢	$145	0xd7bb7d…
09-22 10:00:01	Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xaed1a3…
09-22 09:59:25	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x367b4b…
09-20 00:01:54	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 19?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x451dd5…
09-20 00:01:42	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xf32b97…
09-19 15:05:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	750	18¢	$135	0x2ce9e1…
09-19 12:56:47	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x003911…
09-19 01:29:46	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	BUY	38	27¢	$10	0xaf68bb…
09-18 16:39:34	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0x64785a…
09-17 23:23:27	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	87¢	$191	0x9547db…
09-17 23:23:12	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xbf6c4c…
09-17 23:23:01	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	87¢	$148	0x69b18a…
09-17 23:22:33	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	630	87¢	$545	0x631980…
09-16 14:31:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,150	88¢	$1,012	0x57910b…
09-16 01:26:24	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	BUY	350	21¢	$74	0xe5dcfb…
09-15 00:27:34	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 14?	Yes	BUY	116	98¢	$114	0x13ee8e…
09-14 21:51:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	40¢	$600	0x9373e0…
09-13 15:11:49	Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	82	60¢	$49	0xd69c3d…
09-10 00:24:22	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 11?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$14	0xf10f21…
09-10 00:23:46	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	12¢	$120	0x1c7555…
09-10 00:23:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	1,199	12¢	$144	0x098bfd…
09-08 15:33:06	Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 10?	No	BUY	44	92¢	$40	0x3eb7cc…
09-08 11:49:58	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0x3f4edd…
09-08 11:37:46	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	750	26¢	$195	0xda1c17…