Defiant-Gamebird — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$173

Unrealized P&L

-$509

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

Trades

2,592

lifetime

Volume

$242.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$3.30K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 11:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

62% 50% $-136

Other

34% 50% $-37

Sports

5% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+5,500	$3,536	52¢	$2.8K	$-703	07-17 01:10
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+449	$322	100¢	$448	+$126	06-18 19:44
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+61	$-48	34¢	$21	+$69	07-22 11:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	47	$6.9K	7,700	2,200	+5,500	open	—	07-17 01:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	25	$5.5K	4,305	4,305	+0	open	—	05-01 01:35
will jd vance attend super bowl lx	29	$4.9K	2,596	2,596	+0	open	—	02-08 21:56
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	31	$4.8K	3,750	3,750	+0	open	—	03-25 17:59
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	10	$4.8K	2,452	2,452	+0	open	—	03-01 15:13
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	14	$4.7K	2,830	2,830	+0	open	—	04-09 14:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	47	$4.2K	3,303	3,303	+0	open	—	04-26 17:31
will trump meet with elon musk by march 31	10	$3.9K	1,950	1,950	-0	open	—	01-04 19:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	16	$3.3K	2,062	2,062	+0	open	—	04-20 21:46
iran strike on israel by march 31	11	$3.3K	1,573	1,756	-183	open	—	03-01 00:02
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	2	$3.1K	3,000	100	+2,900	open	—	02-28 00:45
will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by march 31 656 625 393	12	$3.0K	1,889	1,889	+0	open	—	03-10 18:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	20	$2.9K	1,783	1,557	+226	open	—	06-21 00:27
will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	14	$2.7K	1,446	1,446	+0	open	—	06-30 17:26
will donald trump attend super bowl lx	19	$2.6K	2,966	700	+2,266	open	—	02-08 23:40
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	2	$2.5K	2,270	270	+2,000	open	—	03-03 14:19
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	34	$2.4K	1,496	1,496	+0	open	—	02-06 18:26
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	16	$2.3K	1,567	1,567	+0	open	—	07-05 20:09
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	14	$2.2K	1,480	1,480	+0	open	—	04-17 15:15
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	9	$2.1K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	03-22 23:58
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on march 5	3	$2.1K	2,102	0	+2,102	open	—	03-06 02:30
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	5	$2.1K	2,556	123	+2,433	open	—	07-16 04:31
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by june 30	6	$1.9K	1,983	0	+1,983	open	—	06-16 17:05
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	9	$1.9K	1,030	1,030	+0	open	—	04-10 23:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	26	$1.9K	2,010	2,010	+0	open	—	05-08 14:07
will iran strike uae in march	5	$1.9K	946	946	+0	open	—	03-04 18:48
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	117	$1.8K	1,665	2,231	-566	open	—	06-14 09:03
Will Donald Trump visit Kentucky in 2026?	8	$1.8K	925	925	+0	open	—	03-11 20:33
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 24 2026	21	$1.8K	1,915	0	+1,915	open	—	03-25 00:57
will trump say biden during the state of the union address 567	7	$1.8K	1,198	748	+450	open	—	02-23 01:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 11:04:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	74	40¢	$30	0xe2e50a…
07-20 16:27:39	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	63¢	$3	0x811ef7…
07-20 12:55:34	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	16	63¢	$10	0x3ce094…
07-20 07:33:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	400	46¢	$184	0xfee956…
07-20 03:34:42	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x0428db…
07-20 03:33:27	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x1a5325…
07-20 03:26:34	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	29	40¢	$11	0xac7111…
07-20 03:24:16	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	121	40¢	$48	0x3a232a…
07-20 03:04:55	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	45	40¢	$18	0xa6b413…
07-19 15:48:22	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xa8107b…
07-19 14:46:12	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	60	40¢	$24	0x58f93f…
07-19 13:31:45	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x2d33d9…
07-19 13:31:19	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	299	40¢	$118	0x32cf48…
07-19 13:12:45	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x1883a5…
07-18 16:17:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0xdfdb1a…
07-18 14:07:55	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876	Yes	BUY	250	70¢	$175	0x1f9756…
07-17 01:10:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	493	52¢	$256	0x6be715…
07-17 01:02:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7409ee…
07-17 01:01:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xbba2c5…
07-17 00:06:40	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0x938a99…
07-16 23:58:23	will trump say biden 5 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621422	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xeea823…
07-16 23:56:14	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x06e0ef…
07-16 23:55:13	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa33938…
07-16 23:55:08	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x537e15…
07-16 23:55:05	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xc73ec8…
07-16 23:52:41	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xaceb1d…
07-16 23:52:38	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x883429…
07-16 23:52:34	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xb73da1…
07-16 23:51:56	will trump say fake news during speech to the nation 20260713200621427	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf767c0…
07-16 23:04:22	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$2	0xab3035…
07-16 15:03:59	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xff69d9…
07-16 10:36:35	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xbb6385…
07-16 10:35:32	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 16 20260708001726332	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xf11060…
07-16 04:31:52	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x16b88f…
07-15 22:09:14	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x354232…
07-15 20:28:01	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	SELL	123	11¢	$14	0x6ff0cb…
07-15 20:06:40	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xc88144…
07-15 20:05:25	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	486	13¢	$63	0x1cb734…
07-15 12:46:17	untitled market 1 20260626145744786	No	SELL	60	41¢	$25	0x5dd8b1…
07-15 11:08:52	untitled market 1 20260626145744786	No	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0xe4720a…
07-14 16:49:22	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0xd7109d…
07-14 16:49:10	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0xecbb25…
07-14 14:59:08	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0xf953d4…
07-14 14:46:01	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	499	99¢	$494	0x14c822…
07-14 14:30:35	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	653	99¢	$645	0xec25df…
07-14 14:27:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	300	48¢	$144	0x7f5a4b…
07-13 23:33:53	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260627173804885 499 947 776 521	Yes	BUY	204	97¢	$197	0x5d54c8…
07-13 23:03:59	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 13 20260708001726329	No	BUY	234	99¢	$233	0x5c8bdc…
07-13 23:01:16	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 13 20260708001726329	Yes	SELL	189	0¢	$1	0x3ba296…
07-13 20:20:59	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xb1eaca…
07-13 17:27:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	335	29¢	$97	0x48545e…
07-13 14:25:46	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	489	99¢	$483	0xc2e4f7…
07-13 14:25:35	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$987	0x28e59e…
07-13 14:24:28	untitled market 1 20260626145744786	No	SELL	50	65¢	$33	0x0f07f5…
07-13 11:31:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	61¢	$610	0xa68a73…
07-12 23:35:02	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 13 20260708001726329	Yes	BUY	189	73¢	$138	0x0e8a22…
07-12 21:29:40	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x6c4b49…
07-12 21:29:31	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	Yes	SELL	240	28¢	$66	0xdd7388…
07-12 01:11:25	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	224	44¢	$99	0x17bc59…
07-11 18:23:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	67¢	$168	0xf4e3be…
07-11 15:30:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	Yes	SELL	140	7¢	$10	0x8be68a…
07-11 15:30:04	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	SELL	140	12¢	$17	0xa1b3a2…
07-11 12:27:32	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x0a197a…
07-11 11:52:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 13 20260708212322938	Yes	BUY	140	13¢	$18	0x40ee8f…
07-11 11:52:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	Yes	BUY	140	10¢	$14	0x5f8d8e…
07-11 11:51:19	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	Yes	BUY	135	26¢	$35	0xd53bbb…
07-11 10:22:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	746	65¢	$485	0x836f5d…
07-11 10:20:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xe40f32…
07-11 10:20:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$2	0xa87917…
07-10 14:43:01	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	SELL	70	50¢	$35	0x9e9e40…
07-10 11:44:14	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xc58052…
07-09 23:27:17	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	Yes	BUY	90	40¢	$36	0xd79ac6…
07-09 23:26:58	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	Yes	BUY	80	27¢	$21	0xeaf28d…
07-09 15:23:26	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	SELL	290	65¢	$188	0x15d4ed…
07-08 13:14:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	750	57¢	$427	0x441f02…
07-08 00:38:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	61¢	$152	0x9509d9…
07-07 22:27:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	320	34¢	$109	0xb793ac…
07-07 22:16:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x63653f…
07-07 22:07:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	177	34¢	$60	0xeba789…
07-06 17:38:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	66¢	$660	0xf802bd…
07-06 12:46:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0xd7a818…
07-06 11:03:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x3ad50b…
07-06 11:02:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	430	70¢	$301	0x766d17…
07-06 11:02:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x318b4b…
07-06 02:28:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	108	39¢	$42	0x1b5379…
07-06 01:39:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xe320e7…
07-06 01:39:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	188	39¢	$73	0xaab818…
07-05 20:09:05	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	SELL	1,001	84¢	$841	0xb43995…
07-05 20:06:53	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	SELL	476	80¢	$381	0xbdb7dc…
07-05 20:01:16	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	SELL	90	67¢	$60	0xfb6727…
07-05 18:16:23	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	187	49¢	$92	0xec4e5d…
07-05 18:13:34	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	25	49¢	$12	0x393ca3…
07-05 18:13:32	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x68b2d7…
07-05 18:11:31	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2b4a70…
07-05 18:10:52	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x56779b…
07-05 18:10:50	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	580	49¢	$284	0x1beb4d…
07-05 16:17:44	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	85	50¢	$43	0x6fc16d…
07-05 13:32:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	73¢	$365	0xd3b8b9…
07-05 12:59:58	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418	No	BUY	449	89¢	$401	0xa0b3a5…
07-05 12:50:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	73¢	$365	0xbc48fb…