Warped-Pumpkin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$438

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

28.9%

Resolved

432

Trades

512

lifetime

Volume

$1.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-19 14:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Other

78% 4% -$344

Crypto

21% 24% -$108

Politics

1% 50% +$16

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes		+9	$1	37¢	$3	+$2	06-08 21:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	1	$92	0	97	-97	Yes	-$5	06-21 13:22
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	2	$89	277	277	+0	No	-$51	02-28 10:35
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	2	$74	97	97	+0	Yes	+$68	03-13 15:24
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	3	$70	286	286	+0	No	+$66	02-07 20:20
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	1	$60	167	0	+167	No	-$60	01-03 17:58
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 240 259	2	$51	167	167	+0	No	+$47	02-08 20:34
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	2	$49	211	211	+0	No	+$41	02-06 12:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:20 UTC	5	$35	104	0	+104	Down	-$8	02-25 00:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:45 UTC	6	$30	78	0	+78	Down	-$2	02-24 20:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:20 UTC	4	$30	77	0	+77	Up	-$3	02-24 23:23
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 220 239	2	$29	100	100	+0	No	+$25	02-16 14:02
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 260 279	3	$27	233	86	+148	No	+$17	02-10 00:42
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	1	$20	38	0	+38	Yes	+$18	02-19 07:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:30 UTC	7	$19	73	0	+73	Up	+$11	02-24 20:34
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	3	$19	159	159	+0	No	+$7	08-01 18:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:40 UTC	2	$18	47	0	+47	Up	+$12	02-24 20:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:35 UTC	2	$18	47	0	+47	Down	-$1	02-24 20:38
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 340 359	2	$16	40	40	+0	No	+$12	03-12 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 01:10 UTC	4	$16	214	0	+214	Up	-$16	03-22 01:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:05 UTC	2	$15	50	0	+50	Down	-$15	02-24 23:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:15 UTC	3	$15	50	0	+50	Up	-$15	02-25 00:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:05 UTC	2	$15	50	0	+50	Up	-$15	02-24 21:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 23:10 UTC	2	$15	50	0	+50	Up	-$15	02-24 23:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:25 UTC	1	$15	50	0	+50	Down	-$15	02-25 00:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:30 UTC	4	$15	50	0	+50	Up	-$15	02-25 00:30
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 740plus	1	$11	3,325	0	+3,325	No	-$11	01-29 22:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:00 UTC	4	$11	10	7	+3	Up	+$4	02-24 20:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:25 UTC	3	$11	27	0	+27	Down	+$6	02-24 20:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:20 UTC	2	$10	27	0	+27	Up	$0	02-24 20:22
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 260 279	1	$10	107	0	+107	No	-$10	02-19 19:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 14:17:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd94263…
08-11 13:00:55	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	1¢	$1	0x2826a8…
08-11 13:00:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x261714…
08-09 21:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	0¢	$1	0x1e0107…
08-09 21:31:57	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x37572b…
08-09 21:31:51	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6b5c4c…
08-07 11:02:13	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xda7adb…
08-07 11:02:07	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb54123…
08-07 11:02:04	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x04e285…
08-01 18:24:11	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	8¢	$13	0xd9ecdf…
08-01 18:23:30	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x8d333f…
08-01 18:23:24	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	2¢	$2	0xcd3e41…
08-01 18:23:11	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xc61e48…
07-29 07:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x5a2f5e…
07-29 07:23:54	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xa740ed…
07-29 07:23:33	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0x4cb1e2…
07-29 07:23:24	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0xa23609…
07-29 07:23:20	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x0efcde…
07-26 14:54:57	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	5¢	$5	0x2840a2…
07-26 14:52:06	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$1	0xc2a7ff…
07-26 14:51:52	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0xc0b5f1…
07-26 14:51:40	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x90a3ac…
07-26 14:51:34	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$2	0xd81a0b…
07-26 14:51:31	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5af9ba…
07-20 20:04:49	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x283d67…
07-20 20:04:33	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$2	0x33f291…
07-20 20:04:28	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xc2fb11…
07-20 20:04:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x7e985e…
07-12 12:09:59	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0x8b3d04…
07-12 12:09:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	0¢	$1	0x547eb4…
07-11 23:37:41	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	0¢	$1	0x63ba1c…
07-11 23:37:37	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	0¢	$1	0x617fc7…
07-10 21:51:58	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xb97988…
07-10 21:51:52	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x3e97e0…
07-10 21:51:41	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	395	0¢	$1	0xe14d9a…
07-10 21:51:08	Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	513	0¢	$2	0xee336a…
07-10 21:50:52	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	507	0¢	$2	0x29fb12…
07-10 21:50:46	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xce0873…
07-10 21:50:38	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8b08d1…
07-10 21:50:31	Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbe54a5…
07-10 21:50:28	Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x261618…
07-01 15:24:40	Will Brittany Mahomes be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x024e00…
06-30 14:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x12f4e4…
06-30 14:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x88d291…
06-30 14:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xe55d3a…
06-30 14:37:40	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0xc30c8e…
06-30 14:37:20	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xf9c7ae…
06-30 14:37:11	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe2c4d0…
06-30 14:37:05	Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x3fb4fc…
06-30 14:36:29	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2cc78d…
06-30 14:36:19	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	2¢	$2	0x96b101…
06-30 14:36:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x4408c5…
06-30 14:36:07	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x19a5fb…
06-29 18:51:38	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x54e913…
06-29 18:51:31	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xa72a4e…
06-29 18:51:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0x3dfd02…
06-29 18:51:16	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x0ee91e…
06-29 18:51:13	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x8f913f…
06-29 18:51:05	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xa7bec6…
06-29 18:50:32	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xc95576…
06-22 10:56:43	Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xa8c51a…
06-22 10:56:29	Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x38cb66…
06-22 10:56:26	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x82f2ff…
06-22 10:56:17	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x8da46d…
06-22 10:56:13	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x5e0489…
06-21 13:23:44	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xee940d…
06-21 13:23:38	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x609a3d…
06-21 13:23:23	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x479f23…
06-21 13:23:19	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	485	0¢	$2	0xb5f37e…
06-21 13:23:14	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$2	0x5693f8…
06-21 13:22:58	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	667	0¢	$2	0x0814df…
06-21 13:22:52	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	337	1¢	$2	0x6783b5…
06-21 13:22:07	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	95¢	$92	0x3a2af4…
06-14 13:07:15	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x049206…
06-08 21:36:19	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x7fceba…
06-08 21:34:58	Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf05559…
06-08 21:21:54	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x3c9a23…
06-08 21:21:39	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	0¢	$1	0x999121…
06-08 21:21:07	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	159	1¢	$1	0x67df1c…
06-05 23:22:39	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x6dcf54…
06-05 23:22:28	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	316	0¢	$1	0x3738dd…
06-05 23:22:24	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$2	0xfb62f8…
06-05 23:22:16	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xb67e4a…
06-01 06:10:29	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x95d2d5…
06-01 06:10:20	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xaaca69…
06-01 06:10:01	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	1¢	$1	0xef91d2…
06-01 06:09:58	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0x25e945…
05-27 22:02:45	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x9cac02…
05-27 22:02:38	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x89eb17…
05-27 22:01:07	Will Solana reach $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xb094c6…
05-27 22:01:00	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xcc0c5b…
05-27 21:59:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0x7ae991…
05-26 23:21:20	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	1¢	$2	0xc921b8…
05-26 23:21:15	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	0¢	$1	0x4d4578…
05-26 23:21:10	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0x8ed9a6…
05-26 23:21:06	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	1¢	$2	0x578e07…
05-26 23:20:51	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	0¢	$1	0xe336ab…
05-26 23:20:47	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	1¢	$1	0x43154f…
05-26 23:20:42	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	396	1¢	$2	0xcfce3d…
05-26 23:20:37	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xfd1c40…