Linear-Warmup — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$11.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$788

Hit rate

0.1%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

779

7,010 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$16.3K

$376.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

$2.74K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 11-06 10:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Politics

56% 30% +$23,009

Other

38% 27% -$44,980

Crypto

5% 61% -$1,581

Sports

2% 40% -$1,110

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes		+60,968	$3,532	4¢	$2.7K	-$788	11-06 10:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	676	$61.0K	666,450	578,718	+87,731	No	-$14,560	04-30 21:35
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	343	$54.6K	176,537	179,172	-2,635	Yes	+$39,811	04-08 00:19
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	98	$28.6K	45,505	45,334	+171	Yes	-$6,831	04-19 22:20
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	291	$18.9K	42,376	45,766	-3,390	Yes	+$2,717	02-28 07:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	172	$17.7K	197,964	101,401	+96,562	No	-$7,585	05-29 16:54
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	228	$14.7K	111,234	90,945	+20,289	No	-$601	02-01 03:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	121	$13.0K	80,847	67,182	+13,665	No	-$3,719	04-15 15:13
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	32	$10.5K	16,945	16,945	+0	Yes	+$1,742	02-28 06:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	360	$9.7K	302,348	282,777	+19,571	No	-$6,377	08-31 21:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	320	$7.7K	336,208	113,718	+222,490	No	-$3,927	07-31 20:14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	39	$7.7K	6,548	6,548	+0	No	+$753	04-14 11:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	434	$6.3K	114,230	114,052	+178	No	+$404	06-22 05:20
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	302	$5.1K	323,157	279,421	+43,737	No	-$2,102	09-29 20:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$4.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$140	04-13 23:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	269	$4.8K	269,177	105,645	+163,532	No	-$2,909	10-29 17:46
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	23	$4.7K	71,214	10,246	+60,968	open	—	11-06 10:43
will the us next strike iran on february 21 2026 et	388	$4.6K	69,332	55,169	+14,162	No	-$1,082	02-22 00:27
netanyahu out by march 31 854	80	$4.2K	83,711	83,711	+0	No	-$1,570	03-21 13:22
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	89	$4.1K	20,482	22,150	-1,669	No	-$119	04-05 02:11
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	173	$4.0K	107,975	150,366	-42,392	No	+$312	02-22 00:12
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	121	$3.8K	36,964	38,249	-1,285	No	-$1,636	03-31 09:19
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	97	$3.5K	92,955	70,877	+22,079	No	-$1,376	05-31 00:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?	196	$3.3K	203,418	156,127	+47,291	No	-$1,945	06-22 01:54
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	151	$3.2K	204,630	195,113	+9,517	No	-$709	02-23 01:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	19	$3.1K	7,310	7,310	+0	No	-$78	04-22 01:02
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$2.8K	1,430	1,430	+0	No	+$41	02-28 01:56
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	18	$2.4K	4,835	4,835	+0	No	-$236	04-15 01:27
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	89	$2.2K	22,699	12,539	+10,160	No	-$1,415	02-01 23:26
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	33	$2.0K	34,835	34,835	+0	No	-$187	02-25 03:59
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	109	$2.0K	168,909	168,909	+0	No	-$552	02-15 00:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 10:43:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x7215e8…
11-05 23:21:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26,442	6¢	$1,587	0x132010…
11-05 23:07:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14,081	6¢	$845	0x212fc4…
11-05 22:19:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	867	5¢	$43	0xe462a0…
11-05 16:19:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x0d0022…
11-05 15:36:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	6¢	$300	0x6243a4…
11-05 15:20:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x0dd4f1…
11-05 15:20:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x074063…
11-05 15:20:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11,842	5¢	$592	0x3bcd2f…
11-05 13:48:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,705	5¢	$135	0xdb5045…
10-29 17:46:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$6	0x948ccf…
10-29 17:17:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xbf9200…
10-29 14:56:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x64d695…
10-29 14:50:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xa9a5e2…
10-29 14:50:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x4af271…
10-29 14:29:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xfaa965…
10-29 11:53:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$4	0xef993f…
10-28 14:03:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$4	0x802147…
10-27 23:31:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3,400	0¢	$14	0x12d2dd…
10-27 14:47:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$6	0xffd661…
10-27 02:27:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,030	1¢	$12	0xecec9b…
10-27 01:27:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,548	1¢	$15	0x565300…
10-26 19:25:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	7,000	1¢	$49	0x98193a…
10-26 16:00:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	19,382	1¢	$116	0x1110a8…
10-26 00:35:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	1¢	$0	0x2cb62d…
10-24 02:06:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x8f01d4…
10-23 21:53:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0xd97d3d…
10-23 21:45:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x201fcd…
10-23 20:40:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	600	1¢	$5	0x0c4c21…
10-23 19:39:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,301	1¢	$30	0xfcfc08…
10-23 19:37:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	10,000	1¢	$80	0x8178f6…
10-23 18:29:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	24,902	1¢	$199	0xafda65…
10-23 18:28:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x561ce7…
10-23 18:06:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	756	1¢	$8	0x1b16ef…
10-23 16:05:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	98	1¢	$1	0x493cea…
10-23 15:28:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,439	1¢	$44	0x64a7ce…
10-23 15:27:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0x653552…
10-23 15:27:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1b8fb4…
10-23 15:27:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$50	0x7d6eb8…
10-23 15:25:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x32d24a…
10-23 15:25:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	33,497	1¢	$335	0x9f0ac8…
10-23 15:19:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc2afff…
10-23 13:24:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xda4049…
10-23 09:24:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	51	1¢	$1	0x2a1582…
10-23 09:10:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xa360b8…
10-23 08:14:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	44	1¢	$0	0x07e371…
10-23 06:19:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0x6a9786…
10-23 06:05:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x3c73ec…
10-23 05:08:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	1¢	$30	0xd4b468…
10-21 12:00:53	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	1¢	$18	0xe9bdbe…
10-21 11:48:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$12	0xd64893…
10-21 11:48:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$3	0xf67a65…
10-20 19:19:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$8	0xe0586d…
10-20 16:06:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	804	1¢	$6	0xfbf41e…
10-20 15:58:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,196	1¢	$10	0x046694…
10-20 14:13:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xf30a1f…
10-20 12:36:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	670	1¢	$5	0x42b423…
10-20 12:28:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	875	1¢	$7	0xfce8a4…
10-20 11:46:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0xb9ff42…
10-20 10:01:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	1¢	$10	0xfafe80…
10-19 16:25:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,994	1¢	$18	0x3911ed…
10-19 09:25:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x1534e8…
10-19 09:21:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$7	0x7ac7ab…
10-19 09:20:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$7	0xa7dbec…
10-18 11:25:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$15	0x187e7a…
10-17 12:23:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,081	0¢	$9	0x217e9d…
10-17 12:20:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,440	1¢	$17	0x54c9f7…
10-17 05:33:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$20	0x146767…
10-17 05:33:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$20	0x0f864f…
10-17 05:33:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,500	1¢	$25	0x7b1281…
10-16 21:27:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,081	0¢	$12	0x8e10fa…
10-16 21:26:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$13	0xf276ac…
10-16 20:31:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	397	1¢	$5	0x8de5eb…
10-16 20:29:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x94b148…
10-16 17:35:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$7	0x41d760…
10-16 16:55:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0xf5c540…
10-16 16:42:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$1	0xfc1b4d…
10-16 16:41:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,000	1¢	$60	0xdaec77…
10-16 16:18:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	900	1¢	$11	0xaa4a36…
10-14 22:42:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	Yes	BUY	900	1¢	$12	0xd0cc8f…
10-13 17:40:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,986	1¢	$22	0xe6660e…
10-13 10:07:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$10	0x4e304a…
10-13 09:15:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x8e47aa…
10-12 10:58:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	1¢	$30	0x25a2ae…
10-11 02:31:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,600	1¢	$29	0x906b21…
10-11 01:30:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,600	1¢	$29	0xa5ee46…
10-10 22:25:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$11	0x454a6d…
10-10 22:24:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,100	1¢	$12	0x0210eb…
10-10 21:17:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$24	0xf67e0e…
10-10 15:53:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	600	1¢	$7	0xd49360…
10-10 14:28:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$11	0xb961c5…
10-09 23:11:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$14	0x12543d…
10-09 22:43:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xdd10bd…
10-09 21:56:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x954c4b…
10-09 21:46:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xba5923…
10-09 21:33:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$16	0x84920d…
10-09 20:55:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	2¢	$40	0xd16859…
10-09 20:46:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	124	2¢	$2	0x18dd4c…
10-09 20:46:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	2¢	$40	0x5409a9…
10-09 20:41:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa43a3c…